TimB Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 hours ago, KPITSnow said: long range GFS looks not great. Didn’t last year constantly show longterm pattern changes that never materialized? With that said, the 18z had signs of promise for a second but was then an absolute nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, TimB said: With that said, the 18z had signs of promise for a second but was then an absolute nightmare. Why are we looking at op runs past day 5 and swinging like an emotional pendulum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Why are we looking at op runs past day 5 and swinging like an emotional pendulum? I wasn’t impressed with how fleeting the cold was on the GEFS either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 8 hours ago, TimB said: I wasn’t impressed with how fleeting the cold was on the GEFS either. I think we are to far out yet to get a handle on that and this isn't a sustained bitter cold pattern, those often aren't great for storms anyways. You're point is valid though, no guarantee we get into a sustained 2 week pattern that is good, it could be in and out in 5-7 days. I'll reserve judgement on that until we get closer, really no shot at anything for at least another 7 days. Get through that and see how the extended looks then. I don't put much time into looking at weeklies etc, but they have been decent for January into Feb but they can swing wildly based on how the run they are initiated from ended sometimes so take with a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 From last night’s forecast discussion: You’d think the NWS would learn that every time they do this, their forecast busts. Forecast low at PIT was 23, actual low was 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Peak climo, we aren't on the coast. It won't take much for us to see snow. Gfs shows some hope at the end of the month into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 It looks like the colder air filters down late next week. Hoping to start with some more lake effect and then the pattern change will hopefully begin. Man it feels like it's been 2 years since we've even tracked a potential winter storm watch type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 4 hours ago, north pgh said: It looks like the colder air filters down late next week. Hoping to start with some more lake effect and then the pattern change will hopefully begin. Man it feels like it's been 2 years since we've even tracked a potential winter storm watch type storm. It basically has been. March 2022 was the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 26 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: It basically has been. March 2022 was the last one. I feel like that may have been one where they just rolled with an advisory and it overperformed. Am I wrong? Edit: It looks like we had a watch that was later downgraded to an advisory, which they kept through the duration of the event. So we had a watch then, but the last time Allegheny county was pink was in January 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 57 minutes ago, TimB said: I feel like that may have been one where they just rolled with an advisory and it overperformed. Am I wrong? Edit: It looks like we had a watch that was later downgraded to an advisory, which they kept through the duration of the event. So we had a watch then, but the last time Allegheny county was pink was in January 2022. Sounds familiar now that you mention it. I do remember the Jan 22 storm ended up being more NW, limiting totals south and East of Pgh. However region wide wall to wall watch to warning has been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Sounds familiar now that you mention it. I do remember the Jan 22 storm ended up being more NW, limiting totals south and East of Pgh. However region wide wall to wall watch to warning has been awhile. I did some detective work. This appears to be it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I did some detective work. This appears to be it. We fell short of those totals (right @KPITSnow), but I’d imagine PBZ’s whole area aside from maybe the far western Ohio counties were under a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, TimB said: We fell short of those totals (right @KPITSnow), but I’d imagine PBZ’s whole area aside from maybe the far western Ohio counties were under a warning. Lol this was the famous KPIT letdown I remember this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Just now, Rd9108 said: Lol this was the famous KPIT letdown I remember this now. Yes. NWS went all snow with their forecast, but then there was a lot of mixing early on and his backyard allegedly fell short of warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 25 minutes ago, TimB said: Yes. NWS went all snow with their forecast, but then there was a lot of mixing early on and his backyard allegedly fell short of warning criteria. Yep I remember it. I think I got like 6 or 7 that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Rd9108 said: I did some detective work. This appears to be it. That one still stings a bit. Although I would that take that underachieving storm in a minute, compared to what we’ve had lately. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 With our next shot at getting below freezing not until Friday, we’ve likely clinched a spot in the top 10 fewest December days that have reached the freezing mark, as the best we can do is 13 days if Friday, Saturday and Sunday all get below freezing. Note that only one of the years with 14 or fewer days getting below freezing was observed at KPIT, and it was 2015 which is the standard bearer for awful Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 hours ago, TimB said: With our next shot at getting below freezing not until Friday, we’ve likely clinched a spot in the top 10 fewest December days that have reached the freezing mark, as the best we can do is 13 days if Friday, Saturday and Sunday all get below freezing. Note that only one of the years with 14 or fewer days getting below freezing was observed at KPIT, and it was 2015 which is the standard bearer for awful Decembers. Surprised to see 5 out of 11 of those are pre 1900. Due to poor equipment / record keeping possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Taking a peak at some op runs, starting to see some possibilities now that the pattern change is coming into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Surprised to see 5 out of 11 of those are pre 1900. Due to poor equipment / record keeping possibly? Hard to tell, honestly. You know what I think of the old records but it’s the only records we have so what can you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 47 minutes ago, TimB said: Hard to tell, honestly. You know what I think of the old records but it’s the only records we have so what can you do? Yeah, I recall the discussion previously on those. They make an interesting data point, but if they are "bad" it certainly skews the warming trend. I guess you could run those leaving out anything prior to a certain year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/21/2023 at 11:38 PM, TimB said: We fell short of those totals (right @KPITSnow), but I’d imagine PBZ’s whole area aside from maybe the far western Ohio counties were under a warning. This one was an absolute bust here. I think I got like 5 inches and a ton of slop on a forecast of 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/23/2023 at 8:43 AM, TimB said: With our next shot at getting below freezing not until Friday, we’ve likely clinched a spot in the top 10 fewest December days that have reached the freezing mark, as the best we can do is 13 days if Friday, Saturday and Sunday all get below freezing. Note that only one of the years with 14 or fewer days getting below freezing was observed at KPIT, and it was 2015 which is the standard bearer for awful Decembers. Given the change in the forecast for late week/weekend, we may finish with just 10 freezing temps in December, less than 2015 and in 2nd place on this list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 2 hours ago, TimB said: Given the change in the forecast for late week/weekend, we may finish with just 10 freezing temps in December, less than 2015 and in 2nd place on this list. Are we counting only airport temps or anyone in the western PA forum for the freezing temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Are we counting only airport temps or anyone in the western PA forum for the freezing temps? Airport in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas everyone. Here's to some fun tracking and a big hit in the new year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Merry Christmas. It appears we maybe heading towards atleast some snow chances 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Who forgot to check the locks on the asylums back door? Last one out had to much egg nog and a few patients got loose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 @TheClimateChangerI’d assume we have warmest year at KPIT in the bag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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