Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS looks like it might suck slightly less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Burghblizz said: GFS looks like it might suck slightly less It's slightly better. Every little tick helps with this and nowcasting may have some surprises good or bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 45 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: The thermals really create the boom or bust scenario. Probably more of a tapered look to totals if we were just worried about precip. I do feel a little better about middle of the night/early morning in February versus if it were middle of the day in March. I agree, diurnal minimum for temperatures can only help. To bad we can't get a couple hours of clear sky to radiate. The last week or so that probably helped skew this warmth a bit as we still managed to drop into the 20s a few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I agree, diurnal minimum for temperatures can only help. To bad we can't get a couple hours of clear sky to radiate. The last week or so that probably helped skew this warmth a bit as we still managed to drop into the 20s a few nights. Even with all that radiational cooling we’re still sitting at +13.2 month to date. Just behind 1925 (at a different observing site) for warmest first 10 days of Feb ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: GFS looks like it might suck slightly less Its definitely a hair further South with the low, and subsequently a hair cooler. Too soon to tell if its just noise, or hopefully the start of a series of south adjustments. Im hoping we can at least score a brief period of heavy paste that coats everything so every little bit helps. Its also my opinion whatever "trend" you are seeing leading up in the last 36 hours or so usually continues through game time and verifies a little better if things are improving. That works the other way too, if things are slowing deteriorating odds are it will wind up worse than what models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, TimB said: Even with all that radiational cooling we’re still sitting at +13.2 month to date. Just behind 1925 (at a different observing site) for warmest first 10 days of Feb ever. Thats sort of what I was getting at, we could have really set a high bar if it was overcast a few of those nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 17 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: GFS looks like it might suck slightly less Wouldn’t worry too much about the global models at this time frame. Lower resolution makes it harder to model this type of a dynamic system with marginal thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Dang, Looks like GFS is going to just miss phasing next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GEFS has gone south fwiw. We are within 36 hours now so the ensembles aren't as good but it's atleast a sign that maybe this is ticking south. Hopefully the euro shows the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It appears on both the nam and gfs, we avoid any SE surface wind for the duration of the event. For this type of borderline system, a downsloping wind would be a death knell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I know the RAP can’t be trusted at this range or really any range, but it does drop 9” in 6 hours including a couple hours with 2-3” rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 UK continues to be south of other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Euro may have put the final nail in the coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I think we are looking at a 1-3 event with most of it falling while I'm asleep which are not my favorite storms. Wake up, shovel and then watch it start melting Tuesday afternoon. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Impressive, and this 8.3” is with actual modeled ratios. This looks like it could be a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Impressive, and this 8.3” is with actual modeled ratios. This looks like it could be a big one. Could be for sure. The models are still all over the place. I'm glad we have some of the mesos. Hopefully the next HRRR run shows a big hit again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 minutes ago, north pgh said: I think we are looking at a 1-3 event with most of it falling while I'm asleep which are not my favorite storms. Wake up, shovel and then watch it start melting Tuesday afternoon. Yawn. Probably won’t even have to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's the euro ensemble at short range but it's definitely south of op and other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Is thundersnow possible with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1258 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 OHZ041-PAZ007-013-014-020>022-073-077-078-121800- Columbiana-Mercer-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Westmoreland-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana- 1258 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio and western Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance for winter weather impacts early Tuesday morning with a crossing low pressure system. There still remains a lot of uncertainty in precipitaiton type, snow liquid ratios, and the position of snow bands. A Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning may need to be issued in the next 24 hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The NWS discussion from yesterday said something to the effect that the eventual forecast might be more of a “middle ground” as opposed to the “most likely”. I’m not sure if that spread has closed that much in the last 24 hours. I’d probably put up something like “2-5 inches, but possibly less to the south and in lower elevations where there could be more rain”. When we talk elevation in this area, forecasters love to just say ridges versus non ridges. In reality it’s more nuanced with borderline P types. I think you’ll see some differences in the metro area between 800’ and 1200’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: UK continues to be south of other guidance I think that’s the UK with the legend off as well. I think that light blue is really 2-4 not 4-6 (and so on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looks like we’ve lost the HRRR. Too far south and east for most of us to get more than a couple of inches, using actual model ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAMs also slid SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I guess I’m right on their 3” line- but honestly this is easily the most nowcast event of the year. The NAM also looks like it’s going to slide a little too far SE, but the GFS will be along shortly with it’s too far NW solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 With all the uncertainty, let’s go with a blend for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAM is actually south 3k nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3k 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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