Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 With that being said the SREFs are also going North. If the NAM goes north than you can basically put a knife in this one. Unless models are underestimating the cold air push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'm pretty sure that the Canadian will come North but that would put us in a sweet spot at least for now on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 18z euro north again fwiw. Need to see some type of bleeding to the north stopped tonight or tomorrow or else this thing is going to Youngstown/Cleveland. NAM is next up. Once the bleeding starts, it never stops. We know this by now. Another wasted storm and likely another wasted winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, TimB said: Once the bleeding starts, it never stops. We know this by now. Another wasted storm and likely another wasted winter. Big game hunting at this point. Give me a 12+ storm and I won't even remember how bad this winter has been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Wanna see if the NAM holds on before completely throwing it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 And there it goes. Stick a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Ok, technically it still gets us a decent total, but is this at all promising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, TimB said: And there it goes. Stick a fork in it. As usual it will turn out to be an I-80 special. The only hope we have is that it drops south 50 miles tomorrow. Can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, TimB said: Ok, technically it still gets us a decent total, but is this at all promising? Nope because we know that pesky warm air always comes further north. Idt we ever get the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: Wanna see if the NAM holds on before completely throwing it in. Looks pretty solid to me, especially with 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAM isn’t great for central and southern AGC - but not a complete disaster. Still looking decent northern AGC and Butler. Southern Border counties look in trouble. The one improvement was more moisture to the west, so anyone on the good side of the changeover has a little more time to work. (I know - could just mean staying sucked in longer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: Looks pretty solid to me, especially with 10:1 ratios. We won’t get 10:1 ratios, it depicts temps being above freezing the entire time snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Kuchera actually a little more robust. Brutal cutoff though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'm gonna laugh if the gfs decides to come back south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hopefully we still get a period of heavier snow. Don’t want a rain to dryslot to flurries scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Hopefully we still get a period of heavier snow. Don’t want a rain to dryslot to flurries scenario. Tbh I want to see some semblance of south shift between now and 12z tomorrow or else your fear may come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm gonna laugh if the gfs decides to come back south. It’s certainly shifted south away from us enough times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gfs has gone even further north and starts to creep that mix line into Northern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAM not giving up - in fact its better for SW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: NAM not giving up - in fact its better for SW PA I seen that maybe we get a nice little correction back south. I'd love for the gfs and rgem to shift south. Still tracking atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Infact the NAM has us at 8 inches now on the kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12Z NAM 10:1 strip of 12+ just for fun. I think we would gladly take the old “cut in half rule” here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 22 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: 12Z NAM 10:1 strip of 12+ just for fun. I think we would gladly take the old “cut in half rule” here: 3k is a lot warmer though. I guess it may actually come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 3k is a lot warmer though. I guess it may actually come down to nowcasting. The thermals really create the boom or bust scenario. Probably more of a tapered look to totals if we were just worried about precip. I do feel a little better about middle of the night/early morning in February versus if it were middle of the day in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 26 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 3k is a lot warmer though. I guess it may actually come down to nowcasting. The other interesting thing is that it also has a different orientation of the precip shield. Has precip into NW PA, where 12k is dry. In upstate NY, you have some areas that have 12+, but zero in the 12k. Not sure that is too common. I would expect the differences to be more in micro details. Not sure I understand why that would be the case, but the models can’t even agree with themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hug the snowiest model and you can never go wrong.... Icon is south of it's previous runs. Let's just shoot for a period of heavy snow and I'll be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, north pgh said: Looks like a more realistic depiction of the NAM. Totals moderated a bit, and scaled way back in the Mon valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The NWS has a HWO for Butler, Armstrong, Lawrence counties, noting that an advisory or warning might be needed in the next 36 hours. They noted too much uncertainty for right now. Thats fair and is a better strategy than CTPs “WSW kind of” strategy.I bet they are waiting for the rest of 12Z to make a call for watches for the northern metro area. I think they wait on AGC regardless, and add it if things trend well by tonight. Just too many red flags still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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