RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: I noticed that the Kuchera has it at 4.3 inches. Is it picking up on this maybe being a low ratio snowfall? Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Kuchera method is generally better in marginal events as it more accurately takes into account the effect of temperature in crystal formation and melting thus resulting in a less than 10:1 SLR. It was designed to more accurately represent what you would see if at the end of a storm you go out and stick a ruler in the ground. Conversely, I think it's also useful when it's a cold powder as it can estimate totals at a higher than 10:1 SLR. 36 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: What’s it look like with Kuchera ratios? Kuchera ratio maps used to throw up massively inflated totals, but I’ve noticed over the past couple of years, they have often been less than the 10:1 maps. Anecdotally, if it's been less than the 10:1 maps, one could draw the conclusion we have experienced more borderline snow events in recent history which is what I gather you were trying to get at with this comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 23 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: We need some phase to get the NS involved though to get the cold, 6z GFS was really close to perfect, get that whole progression to happen a little faster and further SW and it bombs right over us vs central PA and look out. There in lies the the thread the needle aspect though, there aren't any other features to buy wiggle room, so it all has to time out perfectly which makes it even lower odds than normal. But dang... Missed posting about this yesterday.... is this a Cat 2 hurricane over Delaware? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Still a long long way out Interestingly, the weather app on the phone says 7.3” for Tuesday, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The average high temperature over the first seven days of February (49.3F) has been the fifth highest over 150 years in the threaded record, and exceeded only by 1991 at the airport (52.3F). Given the high temperatures over the next 3 days, I'd say it is likely this will be the warmest first 10 days of February on record by average high temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS looked pretty friendly to the area over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Ahoff said: GFS looked pretty friendly to the area over the next few weeks. Which run? I was unimpressed by the 12Z which had Pittsburgh at 6.7" and more like 5-6" at KPIT through the entire run. North Carolina gets dumped on though - 22" at Greensboro and a foot at Raleigh-Durham. Edit: Doesn't show the North Carolina event until the 19th-20th, and Pittsburgh is in the upper 30s for highs those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Which run? I was unimpressed by the 12Z which had Pittsburgh at 6.7" and more like 5-6" at KPIT through the entire run. North Carolina gets dumped on though - 22" at Greensboro and a foot at Raleigh-Durham. I will say the 24-hour period from 12z 12/13 to 12z 12/14 looks solid. 5.0" using Kuchera ratios, and 7.3" at 10:1 [probably too high with marginal temps], and this is only 5 days out [rather than some distant, remote possibility]. But other than that, not too many big threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Sharing a post from @mitchnickin the Central PA forum showing the GEFS (see link above). Looks like a miss or minor event on the majority of ensemble members (although there are a couple/few big hits). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Which run? I was unimpressed by the 12Z which had Pittsburgh at 6.7" and more like 5-6" at KPIT through the entire run. North Carolina gets dumped on though - 22" at Greensboro and a foot at Raleigh-Durham. Edit: Doesn't show the North Carolina event until the 19th-20th, and Pittsburgh is in the upper 30s for highs those days. I don’t know, I saw a screenshot that showed like 18” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 57 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I don’t know, I saw a screenshot that showed like 18” here. 6z run, I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, TimB said: 6z run, I think. Yeah, so the potential is there. Do I expect that much, no. But we have chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, so the potential is there. Do I expect that much, no. But we have chances. That was theb6z and that was for the PD time frame not next Tuesday. Next Tuesday looks like our max would be a moderate event. Just seems like the storm doesn't get really going until it's east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z gfs has some snow showers atleast. Just gets going a little too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 55 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 18z gfs has some snow showers atleast. Just gets going a little too late The way this winter has gone, I’d sign now for the 5” IMBY with the possibility for more chances the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: That was theb6z and that was for the PD time frame not next Tuesday. Next Tuesday looks like our max would be a moderate event. Just seems like the storm doesn't get really going until it's east of us. The point is there’s potential, whether it’s Tuesday or President’s Day the next two weeks should be more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Here comes the rug pull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I wasn't buying into the GFS solution because it didn't have any support before now. The 0Z Euro managed to pop a mini jackpot over Allegheny County. We're threading the needle, but if you want a possible snow solution, the Euro - at least temporarily - backed off the cutter idea. If that holds at 12Z I'll be slightly more interested. You can see the potential thermal issues, however. The GFS warm tongues us and although the heaviest swath of snow is generally in the same area, it extends a tad further north. It's a delicate setup, to be sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro looks really good. Still don't trust any model until 24 hours out atleast especially this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro looks really good. Still don't trust any model until 24 hours out atleast especially this setup. Yeah, this is a high bust potential though 12z Euro did have me raise an eyebrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Maybe a Thunderstorm early tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z….GFS taken literally has more snow than the Euro IMBY… but that look scares me. This will probably flip flop a few times by Sunday, so going to try to put it down for 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Let's hope this comes back south. This would be painful not gonna lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 29 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: 12z….GFS taken literally has more snow than the Euro IMBY… but that look scares me. This will probably flip flop a few times by Sunday, so going to try to put it down for 24 hours 18z is even more extreme with the cutoff. During the transfer we could have pockets of different 850 temps, similar to last months morning slush event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ensembles are better fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 NAM has 6”+ and still snowing at 84. Certainly not a bad sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: 18z is even more extreme with the cutoff. During the transfer we could have pockets of different 850 temps, similar to last months morning slush event. I’m on the good side of that cutoff, but it’s tight. Hopefully 0Z shows that swath a tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Sadly, the 0z GFS went the wrong direction. But the GEFS ensemble mean still looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro still hanging on, but the the margin for error is so slim, this side of the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Gfs is like the only model that is north of us for now. NAM is south, rgem is south, ukmet is south and euro is a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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