TheClimateChanger Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 15 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday? I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency. Well, I don't think I chased them to Discord. It was one of the last posts in the thread, because they had already moved to Discord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, KPITSnow said: But I also think it is relevant. I don’t think you can argue that winters have been overall warmer. You also can’t argue that the lakes used to regularly shut off for LES by January as they froze but really don’t anymore. We hadn’t had a true Alberta clipper in years here. I don’t know how all these things tie together, but they are very relevant to our local discussion You’re not wrong. Fewer clippers, more flirting with mix. There have been subtle changes. Maybe offset by more extended LES nuisance snows. But I think 2023 is a blip. There have been plenty before. Talking warm temps last night and today is very relevant. But Dozens (if not hundreds) of posts that build towards some narrative that our overall snow is dying is the clutter I’m talking about. Nothing in the long term data shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, Burghblizz said: You’re not wrong. Fewer clippers, more flirting with mix. There have been subtle changes. Maybe offset by more extended LES nuisance snows. But I think 2023 is a blip. There have been plenty before. Talking warm temps last night and today is very relevant. But Dozens (if not hundreds) of posts that build towards some narrative that our overall snow is dying is the clutter I’m talking about. Nothing in the long term data shows that. The clipper one is fascinating to me and I’d love to hear a met’s take on why we don’t see those? Maybe @MAG5035 could elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Still doing the research, but it seems the snowfall droughts are increasing. Yes, overall our average annual snowfall has increased these past 20+ years, however these past 10 years especially, we can go 15-20 days in between snowfalls 0.1" or more. In the past that number was never more than 8-10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, CoraopolisWx said: Still doing the research, but it seems the snowfall droughts are increasing. Yes, overall our average annual snowfall has increased these past 20+ years, however these past 10 years especially, we can go 15-20 days in between snowfalls 0.1" or more. In the past that number was never more than 8-10 days. That would be surprising. Because it feels like we got our snows in smaller chunks over the last 20 years (with a few big exceptions like 2.10 and 12.20). That would in theory need more frequent snows to keep the averages up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 hours ago, KPITSnow said: The clipper one is fascinating to me and I’d love to hear a met’s take on why we don’t see those? Maybe @MAG5035 could elaborate? Clipper’s haven’t really “disappeared”, we’re really just talking waves running the northern branch of the jet stream. Having anomalous ridging out west (+PNA) is what orients the northern branch to take waves over that ridge and drop them down from Alberta or a neighboring province to the eastern US to make what we call an Alberta clipper. Usually they’re moisture starved and light events but if there’s enough amplication in the pattern they can pull up some Gulf and Atlantic moisture and become more moderate events and/or phase with a southern stream shortwave and become a bigger coastal storm. Just last Friday’s event was basically a clipper type event as we’ve had some ridging out west and this wave ran the northern branch of the jet stream and tracked underneath PA. The wave just didn’t phase with southern stream energy that was around which was why it didn’t up being a more significant snowfall. But it was a pretty standard event we typically get during the winter and the downstream blocking in the NAO realm helped with the post storm LES/upslope via NW flow. My opinion is that it’s been a matter of how the mean pattern has been aligned, especially when it comes to the Pacific/western US. We’ve spent a lot of time especially the last few winters with troughs in the west (-PNA) and southeast ridging, +EPO which floods the CONUS with Pacific air, and also times of very +NAO/AO (which happened most of 19-20 and some of 21-22). These factors in combo or individually drives up the northern branch storm track in the east, which takes what would be clipper lows north of PA. It also makes a more westerly/southwesterly mean flow instead of northwesterly and that has killed the season totals in the LES/upslope areas of the Laurel’s and western PA the last several winters. The Laurel’s region has had some of the worst overall snowfall departures in the east % wise between 2019-20 and last winter. The question of why could be related to ENSO (frequent La Niña in recent winters), being in a -PDO (which favors La Ninas), etc etc. There’s been plenty of discussion/debate ad nauseam the last few winters in other sub forums of these factors and their potential influence in what has been an overall lousy run of winters in the Mid-Atlantic/NE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 ^And one day that will change. Can’t stay in the wrong phases forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 NAM is most aggressive with a period changing to snow tomorrow. Has been liking North and West of city. Taken literally, about 4” at KPIT. Probably won’t be able to thread the needle like that, and surface temps will likely be above freezing. Something to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Please keep posting these. It’s extremely relevant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That weird thing the storm does at the end of the Euro would be nice and give us lots of snow, but isn’t really plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 53 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Please keep posting these. It’s extremely relevant I’m sure he’d post record lows if we ever got those too. But I agree, record highs and warm lows are less interesting now that we get at least one a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Wouldn't the very fact that the low moves inland into New Jersey indicate that this storm wouldn't be all snow for the coast? That account seems to be a bit dramatic, but that doesn't look like an all snow friendly system for the coast. I'd take it for us, but that even looks like a nearly impossible track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 34 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Wouldn't the very fact that the low moves inland into New Jersey indicate that this storm wouldn't be all snow for the coast? That account seems to be a bit dramatic, but that doesn't look like an all snow friendly system for the coast. I'd take it for us, but that even looks like a nearly impossible track. Can someone come up with storm that’s taken a similar track? I’m striking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 36 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Wouldn't the very fact that the low moves inland into New Jersey indicate that this storm wouldn't be all snow for the coast? That account seems to be a bit dramatic, but that doesn't look like an all snow friendly system for the coast. I'd take it for us, but that even looks like a nearly impossible track. Yes. I wasn’t sharing for the commentary, just for the track. But I had the same thought. A track right over New York City and into north central Pennsylvania isn’t exactly ideal for snow from the city north into Boston, regardless of the airmass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, TimB said: Can someone come up with storm that’s taken a similar track? I’m striking out. Nevermind. Duh. November 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 33 minutes ago, TimB said: Nevermind. Duh. November 1950. If only we could get a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Ahoff said: If only we could get a repeat. November 1950 and other similar storms also had tremendous amounts of cold air that they were able to tap into, so they didn’t result in two days of snow with temperatures hovering at or just above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I'm sure the 3k doesn't look like this but the 12k NAM has a faster changeover 3k is more so an inch but something to keep an eye tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 53 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm sure the 3k doesn't look like this but the 12k NAM has a faster changeover 3k is more so an inch but something to keep an eye tomorrow. Yeah, the nam has been consistent in showing some back end pity snow. Would be nice to see the other models agree, but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Yeah, the nam has been consistent in showing some back end pity snow. Would be nice to see the other models agree, but we’ll see. Yeah no other model agrees. HRRR and RAP say no. So we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Anyone catch that lightning earlier ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Funny how the NAM is a cold outlier. Not sure if maybe it’s overdoing the rates leading to more dynamic cooling. But it’s been consistently showing that backend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I know it’s just the Canadian, but LOL. 982mb low in a great spot in early Feb and the entire precip shield is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Up to 5.02” of precipitation on the month, which is good for 9th most in the threaded record. Actually, back to 1836 if you include the Allegheny Arsenal records as in the NWS Pittsburgh table: https://www.weather.gov/pbz/climate Some more rain moving in this morning, so there will be an opportunity to move up on the list. Looks like only two wetter Januarys since 1950: 1978 & 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Up to 5.02” of precipitation on the month, which is good for 9th most in the threaded record. Actually, back to 1836 if you include the Allegheny Arsenal records as in the NWS Pittsburgh table: https://www.weather.gov/pbz/climate Some more rain moving in this morning, so there will be an opportunity to move up on the list. Looks like only two wetter Januarys since 1950: 1978 & 2005. Remarkably, the majority of that January 1978 precip fell as snow. 6.25” of precip and 40.2” of snow that month, for the snowiest January and 3rd snowiest month on record. Also looks like we’ve set yet another daily precip record, our 3rd since Christmas. With 150+ years of records, we’d be expected to get less than 3 of those per year, and now we’ve had 3 in about a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 34 minutes ago, TimB said: Remarkably, the majority of that January 1978 precip fell as snow. 6.25” of precip and 40.2” of snow that month, for the snowiest January and 3rd snowiest month on record. Also looks like we’ve set yet another daily precip record, our 3rd since Christmas. With 150+ years of records, we’d be expected to get less than 3 of those per year, and now we’ve had 3 in about a month. Well, we were bound to pay for the very dry year last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I think anything we might score in terms of snowfall before Valentine's Day would be considered a bonus given the overall pattern. There's an interesting Omega Block setting up around the 7th that's worth keeping an eye on as long as it stays. Getting the requisite cold is going to require an anomalous low, in all likelihood (meaning something really wrapped up). Big issues right now are +EPO, +AO, and +NAO keeping the cold out of North America. The MJO is supposedly dying in Phase 7 which isn't ideal, but that's the lesser of the problems. The velocity of the pattern change is what remains our big question. Do we get sufficient movement by President's Day? Late February is one of those odd times where big storms seem much less common, then March becomes the coin-flip month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/22/2024 at 7:37 AM, TheClimateChanger said: Actually even more than that. We’re already at +3.9. Looking at the forecast to close out the month, could be +4.2 or 4.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now