jwilson Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Anyone peaking at sunday? Not a ton of cold air, but the GEFS is better than the Op GFS. This would be a complete fluke storm if there ever was one. Hostile pattern mostly, minus the western ridge in a good location. But as you said, the cold is scoured out of NA by that +EPO. We'd have to time this right underneath the rotation of the TPV lobe over Hudson Bay and dig a s/w deep enough to produce its own cold sector. The ensembles look better because they have a stronger lobe that reaches a bit further south. Makes enough changes to the eastern trough. If the s/w comes in a bit later behind the lobe and still amplifies, it cuts west of us, and there's nothing to stop northern progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Long range GFS is pretty uninteresting with no real sign of a pattern reset. Hopefully we get a window later in February but the first part of the month looks like a shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/22/2024 at 2:03 PM, TheClimateChanger said: Surprisingly, we still need 2.7" before the end of the month at PIT just to keep pace with last year's total there. We are currently at 11.6" for the season. Last season had 14.3" through the end of January, and that ended up being the 8th lowest on record, and least since 1990-1991. Actually looking at the list, the top 5 lowest were all from the city station. And the only two since moving out to either airport that were less were basically negligible differences, so that was about as bad as it gets climatologically. Of course, we had almost zero winter once the calendar turned to February last year. Probably won't duplicate that. Looked into this a bit more. Last year was only 44th lowest through the end of January in the threaded record, but ended up as 8th least on the season. The 3.3 inches from February 1st onwards tied 1884 for lowest on record (officially - of course there are some low biasing factors in the early decades of the threaded record). Doubt we will see a near total shutout after Groundhog's Day this year... odds would certainly say no, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Hit 50.5 Today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 16 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Hit 50.5 Today! I think i saw 52.0° AT 2:51 at KPIT. 16° above the average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I think i saw 52.0° AT 2:51 at KPIT. 16° above the average Still could get above that before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The record for fewest days through the end of January with a low at or below freezing at Pittsburgh International is 50, in 2015-16. We’re at 41 right now, so we’ll obliterate that record. Fewest for an entire season is 89. That would seem to be in jeopardy. If we go by calendar years and not seasons, 2023 was the clear winner in this category and it’s not even close (86 vs. a previous low of 93). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 36 minutes ago, TimB said: Still could get above that before midnight. Still warming! Wish we could be 16 above average in July! I'm a man of the extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, PghPirates27 said: Still warming! Wish we could be 16 above average in July! I'm a man of the extremes. I’d rather die lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 28 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I’d rather die lol Same! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, PghPirates27 said: Still warming! Wish we could be 16 above average in July! I'm a man of the extremes. +16 would be a high of 99 and a low of 80 at peak summer climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The temperature is still climbing on my weather station is still climbing. 52 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 To date, it has been the 11th warmest winter in the threaded record. 2nd warmest observed at KPIT, slightly behind 2007. Will be interesting to see where we stand with this big warmup. Obviously, some of the warmest winters at the city station (1879-80, 1889-90, 1931-32) aren't going to be eclipsed anytime soon, but we really aren't too far off from a top five position in the threaded record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 If the mean stays the same over the next week, we would move into 9th place (and warmest in KPIT records). But looking at the forecast, I think the mean actually goes up this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: To date, it has been the 11th warmest winter in the threaded record. 2nd warmest observed at KPIT, slightly behind 2007. Will be interesting to see where we stand with this big warmup. 2007 drops down that list pretty quickly from here on out. After 1/24, there were only 6 above normal days and February was more than 10 degrees below normal, with a massive cold snap early in the month. If winter ended today, it’d be the warmest at KPIT, breaking the record set (checks notes) last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Where is iOS getting its data that it has the ridiculous idea that it’s currently 45 on the way to a high of 51? The airports are currently at 56 and nearly every PWS in the county on wunderground is in the mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Let's get back to weather we actually care about The latest sref ticked our snow up slightly for that next system. Not expecting much but it would be nice if we could sneak an inch or two during our "bad period". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Let's get back to weather we actually care about The latest sref ticked our snow up slightly for that next system. Not expecting much but it would be nice if we could sneak an inch or two during our "bad period". Keeping the center of that 850 vort south of us might be too much to ask, however a more compact center could allow a quicker change over, and less dry slotting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Today’s low of 53 was tied with two other dates for 9th warmest January low at Pittsburgh International. All 11 have come since 1993. There were no days from 1952-1992 with a low of 53 or above in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: If the mean stays the same over the next week, we would move into 9th place (and warmest in KPIT records). But looking at the forecast, I think the mean actually goes up this week. No one cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 8 hours ago, Burghblizz said: No one cares It’s amazing how triggered some of you get at any hint of climate change talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 19 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: It’s amazing how triggered some of you get at any hint of climate change talk A weather forum, but the only weather you’re allowed to talk about is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 17 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Had a feeling we’d overperform big time. Looks like our high today will be 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: It’s amazing how triggered some of you get at any hint of climate change talk I didn't even bring up climate change, to be honest. I thought it was interesting. It's not some random record for consecutive days above a random temperature... it was noting that, hey, 2/3rds of the way through met. winter and this has been the warmest of any of our lives. We have all lived through some real clunkers, I think it's noteworthy when, with one month remaining in meteorological winter, we are warmest of record at KPIT and warmest overall in the threaded record in 74 years. I think some are just frustrated. For the record, just factoring in yesterday's blowtorch, brings the two-month average up to 37.4F. I mean that's not exactly ideal for winter weather. Hell, the warmest at KPIT from 12-1 to 1-31 currently is 36.4F, set in the winter of 2001-02 so we could potentially blast by that by a full degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Only took 2 days and we're back above average for the month for daily high temp. (We were already above for daily low.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: I didn't even bring up climate change, to be honest. I thought it was interesting. It's not some random record for consecutive days above a random temperature... it was noting that, hey, 2/3rds of the way through met. winter and this has been the warmest of any of our lives. We have all lived through some real clunkers, I think it's noteworthy when, with one month remaining in meteorological winter, we are warmest of record at KPIT and warmest overall in the threaded record in 74 years. I think some are just frustrated. For the record, just factoring in yesterday's blowtorch, brings the two-month average up to 37.4F. I mean that's not exactly ideal for winter weather. Hell, the warmest at KPIT from 12-1 to 1-31 currently is 36.4F, set in the winter of 2001-02 so we could potentially blast by that by a full degree. I know. The response to what is a meteorological fact, which we discuss on here, was way over the top and shows how unfortunately politicized science has become Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, KPITSnow said: It’s amazing how triggered some of you get at any hint of climate change talk Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday? I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 27 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I know. The response to what is a meteorological fact, which we discuss on here, was way over the top and shows how unfortunately politicized science has become Funny how you think you understand my “politics”. Definitely a different person than your “assumptions”, and not in any way disputing the science. I’m just sick of a formally great thread cluttered with it when…again…local sensible weather will go through cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday? I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency. But I also think it is relevant. I don’t think you can argue that winters have been overall warmer. You also can’t argue that the lakes used to regularly shut off for LES by January as they froze but really don’t anymore. We hadn’t had a true Alberta clipper in years here. I don’t know how all these things tie together, but they are very relevant to our local discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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