MikeB_01 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, TimB said: Mid 20s tomorrow morning seems too cold. It does. HRRR seems to be alone in this thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Also, when was the last time we had a good 2-4 inch front end thump transitioning to slop? It seems that those storms are something we don’t get and feels like we got them all the time 10-15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Yeah not a particular fan of this scenario. Last few HRRR runs have trended precip shield north of the city though leaving us in a dry slot. im fine with that. .01” of freezing rain just doesn’t do anything for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, TimB said: .01” of freezing rain just doesn’t do anything for me. 0.1" does for me if we trend towards the high end. My steep Pittsburgh driveway with that kinda ice is no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, TimB said: .01” of freezing rain just doesn’t do anything for me. Any amount is enough to cause havoc on the roads. I want none of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Also, when was the last time we had a good 2-4 inch front end thump transitioning to slop? It seems that those storms are something we don’t get and feels like we got them all the time 10-15 years ago. 2/20/19, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Our climo says that we get a 12" storm once every 14 years. We have had some 10"s, but has the airport gone over 12" since 2010? Sorry if this question has been answered a bunch of times before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Surprisingly, we still need 2.7" before the end of the month at PIT just to keep pace with last year's total there. We are currently at 11.6" for the season. Last season had 14.3" through the end of January, and that ended up being the 8th lowest on record, and least since 1990-1991. Actually looking at the list, the top 5 lowest were all from the city station. And the only two since moving out to either airport that were less were basically negligible differences, so that was about as bad as it gets climatologically. Of course, we had almost zero winter once the calendar turned to February last year. Probably won't duplicate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Our climo says that we get a 12" storm once every 14 years. We have had some 10"s, but has the airport gone over 12" since 2010? Sorry if this question has been answered a bunch of times before never mind. I just answered my own question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Our climo says that we get a 12" storm once every 14 years. We have had some 10"s, but has the airport gone over 12" since 2010? Sorry if this question has been answered a bunch of times before No highest was 10.7 inches on December 17 (11.0" if you count the 0.3" that fell on the 18th as a single event). That's the highest 2- and 3-day total since February 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Any amount is enough to cause havoc on the roads. I want none of it That’s what I’m saying. If we’re going to have havoc on the roads, which we will with 0.01” or a half inch, we might as well get a proper ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: No highest was 10.7 inches on December 17 (11.0" if you count the 0.3" that fell on the 18th as a single event). That's the highest 2- and 3-day total since February 2010. Funny enough that one performed better further east. I got over a foot in the north hills on that one. I think out towards Indiana they had a stretch of three hours they got under the deform and had 8 inches in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I don’t think the NWS frequency page is ever updated, and I never liked the way they do their end points. Ive stopped looking at it, but I think it had something like: 5”+’twice a year…. 8-12” once every 2 years….13”+ once every 14. So you can spin the expectancy of a 12” type storm a couple different ways, but a storm that pushes or exceeds double digits is about a once every 2 year thing historically. The good news is those solid 8-12” snowstorms that had been missing for a bunch of years have been better. I think we have 4 since 2018 (5 for some people that caught the lake band). So despite the horrible last 15 months, that is a positive overall. We are also officially due for a mega storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 22 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: I don’t think the NWS frequency page is ever updated, and I never liked the way they do their end points. Ive stopped looking at it, but I think it had something like: 5”+’twice a year…. 8-12” once every 2 years….13”+ once every 14. So you can spin the expectancy of a 12” type storm a couple different ways, but a storm that pushes or exceeds double digits is about a once every 2 year thing historically. The good news is those solid 8-12” snowstorms that had been missing for a bunch of years have been better. I think we have 4 since 2018 (5 for some people that caught the lake band). So despite the horrible last 15 months, that is a positive overall. We are also officially due for a mega storm. Yep. There was a pretty big gap from 2010 to 2018 with nothing but was better in that stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I also think the fact two of those 8-12 events were in March makes us misremember them since it melts fast. That 2018 match event was prolonged and I’m not sure the roads ever even caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NWS has us under a winter weather advisory just in case. Atleast I don't have to drive anywhere in the AM. Tomorrow's commute maybe ugly if we actually do get freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 58 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I also think the fact two of those 8-12 events were in March makes us misremember them since it melts fast. That 2018 match event was prolonged and I’m not sure the roads ever even caved. I had 9” in Monroeville March 2013 as well. Maybe this underperformed at the airport, but this was another nice March storm. So I wouldn’t say the few years after 2010 had nothing, just these memories tend to fade quicker than huge storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 19 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: I had 9” in Monroeville March 2013 as well. Maybe this underperformed at the airport, but this was another nice March storm. So I wouldn’t say the few years after 2010 had nothing, just these memories tend to fade quicker than huge storms. Not to mention that the reporting at the airport could be a few inches off depending on the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Alright, give me some hope here. I need a recent year where spring arrived in early February but we flipped back to winter afterward. I feel like in recent years, once we flip to spring we either stay there or the cold comes back in late March or April after it’s far too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 16 hours ago, KPITSnow said: I also think the fact two of those 8-12 events were in March makes us misremember them since it melts fast. That 2018 match event was prolonged and I’m not sure the roads ever even caved. I used to drive a 28 mile stretch of the turnpike every day at that time and my recollection of this event is that there were absolutely zero commuting issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Also, glad we missed out on the freezing rain, but is there a reason the advisory is still going? We’ve been above freezing the whole time, haven’t dropped below freezing, and won’t drop below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TimB said: Also, glad we missed out on the freezing rain, but is there a reason the advisory is still going? We’ve been above freezing the whole time, haven’t dropped below freezing, and won’t drop below freezing. Its interesting how far off the HRRR was on the temperature for this morning... I think because there are some stations (PWS) hovering right around freezing, they will leave it as is. My PWS was 32 this morning. I only had sprinkles and it wasn't freezing, but the temp read 32° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Coming from the south, I always opt to be cautious when there's ice in the forecast, but there's a big ol' nothing in Butler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Looking at snowfall numbers earlier and I noticed that xmACIS is sometimes wrong with early snow totals. I noticed there's a discrepancy in some years between the numbers given by xmACIS and the NWS totals. The error was most glaring for 1950-1951, which xmACIS gives as 80.0" but the NWS tally has 82.0". So I looked into it, and it looks like xmACIS has some errors. They have screwed us out of some of our snow from the November 1950 storm, showing 12.0" on the 24th, rather than the 14.0" that was actually observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 That's a significant error too. Drops the sixth highest calendar day snowfall to a two-way tie for 10th place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Actually, it's not just old winters. I counted 27 winters where there is a discrepancy, including multiple recent ones (1996-97, 1998-99, 2000-01, 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07, 2010-11, 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22). The vast majority of the time NWS Pittsburgh's count is a bit higher but there are exceptions. Most of the differences are small - less than an inch or two. But some of the early winters, there are discrepancies of up to 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Also, glad we missed out on the freezing rain, but is there a reason the advisory is still going? We’ve been above freezing the whole time, haven’t dropped below freezing, and won’t drop below freezing.I think they've dropped it since your post but I know you can still get freezing rain when the air temp is above freezing. Surfaces can still be at or below freezing so they probably keep it up for a while in case of that. Now, we're well above freezing and it all shifted more north than they thought, so thankfully no freezing rain here with this one. A lot of melting to come. And I need to get the damn salt off of my truck! LolSent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Temps have surged into the mid-40s with some sunshine breaking through. This has over-performer written all over it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Anyone peaking at sunday? Not a ton of cold air, but the GEFS is better than the Op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Anyone peaking at sunday? Not a ton of cold air, but the GEFS is better than the Op GFS. Euro is not quite there…but close. 6-7” from 422 north. Foot plus north central Pa. Considerably east versus yesterday with snow significantly farther south. Another shift like that and we’re in. Unfortunately, not the direction you would expect the Euro to shift, but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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