Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

[TimB]

NWS is officially forecasting 1.1” at PIT with a 54% chance of at least an inch Monday night. I guess we’ll see if we get the heavier snow showers.

[KPITSnow]

2 hours ago, TimB said:

NWS is officially forecasting 1.1” at PIT with a 54% chance of at least an inch Monday night. I guess we’ll see if we get the heavier snow showers.

I’m looking at the models and Pittsburgh snow hole is in full effect 

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TimB said:

NWS is officially forecasting 1.1” at PIT with a 54% chance of at least an inch Monday night. I guess we’ll see if we get the heavier snow showers.

You can see they expect bands from the lakes by the look of the map.  Should be changes and maybe surprises in some places.

Accuweather going with 1-3" at 66% chance.

[Ahoff]

19 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I’m looking at the models and Pittsburgh snow hole is in full effect 

Ahh...there you are, lol.  In winter form already.

[Rd9108]

 

Fwiw euro. Could be our first accumulating snowfall

[TimB]

NWS has already backed off the totals significantly and we’ll be lucky to get a half inch if they’re right.

[TheClimateChanger]

It looks like snow, but I think it’s ice from the skating rink.

[TheClimateChanger]

Plenty of these still hanging around too.

[Rd9108]

Rgem isn't backing down still 1-3. storm is apparently slowing down so idk how that affect us. Maybe it allows for the changeover to happen quicker???? 

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, TimB said:

NWS has already backed off the totals significantly and we’ll be lucky to get a half inch if they’re right.

Definitely time for better trends.

[Ahoff]

17 hours ago, TimB said:

NWS has already backed off the totals significantly and we’ll be lucky to get a half inch if they’re right.

You’ll be happy to see the NWS is up to 1.6” as a prediction and the upper level 3”.  Good trend.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

You’ll be happy to see the NWS is up to 1.6” as a prediction and the upper level 3”.  Good trend.

In my opinion the setup looks good for how we maximize a cold window in an otherwise unfavorable pattern.

A shortwave dropping in behind the main storm after we already have a favorable NW flow off warm lakes is typically a way we can score a small event. If we maximize the setup potential squalls and briefly heavy snow not out of the question. Its a nowcast thing, but beats days of 40s and 50s right? 

[TimB]

6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

In my opinion the setup looks good for how we maximize a cold window in an otherwise unfavorable pattern.

A shortwave dropping in behind the main storm after we already have a favorable NW flow off warm lakes is typically a way we can score a small event. If we maximize the setup potential squalls and briefly heavy snow not out of the question. Its a nowcast thing, but beats days of 40s and 50s right? 

Yes. 1” would be satisfactory. Falling short of that would be sadness.

[TimB]

6 hours ago, Ahoff said:

You’ll be happy to see the NWS is up to 1.6” as a prediction and the upper level 3”.  Good trend.

Now the amounts in the lowlands are back down again while they jacked up the amounts in the ridges. I hate living here.

I’ll reiterate my position: anything more than an inch is a victory, anything less than an inch is a loss, but not an unexpected one.

[Ahoff]

27 minutes ago, TimB said:

Now the amounts in the lowlands are back down again while they jacked up the amounts in the ridges. I hate living here.

I’ll reiterate my position: anything more than an inch is a victory, anything less than an inch is a loss, but not an unexpected one.

The nature of this event would suggest the predictions will go back and forth.  Hell, every event the totals flucuate.  Don't take the bridge yet.

Or you could move if you hate it here so bad, lol.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

The nature of this event would suggest the predictions will go back and forth.  Hell, every event the totals flucuate.  Don't take the bridge yet.

Or you could move if you hate it here so bad, lol.

Yeah, it’s really easy to move all of my family and friends and everyone I care about, most of whom don’t even like snow, to a place that actually gets snow.

[Ahoff]

3 minutes ago, TimB said:

Yeah, it’s really easy to move all of my family and friends and everyone I care about, most of whom don’t even like snow, to a place that actually gets snow.

Hmmm, you seem to have lost your sense of humor since last winter.  Try to find it again, or it's going to be an excruciating season.

Don't look at the advisory map, you'll lose your mind.  Though KPIT is always as late as possible to hoist any kind of advisory, not that this would likely be advisory level.

Also, it doesn't looks like any of the shorter term models have taken us out of the game, so I'm still riding.

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Hmmm, you seem to have lost your sense of humor since last winter.  Try to find it again, or it's going to be an excruciating season.

Don't look at the advisory map, you'll lose your mind.  Though KPIT is always as late as possible to hoist any kind of advisory, not that this would likely be advisory level.

Also, it doesn't looks like any of the shorter term models have taken us out of the game, so I'm still riding.

Honestly the advisories in OH/KY are some of the weakest advisories I’ve ever seen. “Snow accumulations up to one inch, snow accumulations up to two inches, snow accumulations up to one half inch.” It just doesn’t take as much for them to get an advisory.

Then again, even the ones for Pittsburgh’s northern counties are for “up to two inches.”

[Gordo74]

Aaaand it’s gone.

[Rd9108]

46 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Aaaand it’s gone.

What the fuck are you looking at? This is all now casting with what bands we get. Right now the 18z Hrrr still had us at 1-2. 

[Gordo74]

Weather underground which has gone from 2.5” to 0.3” in Murrysville. NWS updated totals as well about an hour ago and shows no accumulation pockets all over Allegheny and westmoreland.

[Ahoff]

Is Weather Underground even reliable?  Their stuff always seemed to be off.

Plus, the NWS upped the totals in Pittsburgh from .7” to 1.1”, with the upper range back to 3”.

Yeah, the short range models are more important now.

[Ahoff]

13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

What the fuck are you looking at? This is all now casting with what bands we get. Right now the 18z Hrrr still had us at 1-2. 

Accuweather is still at 1-3” too.

[Rd9108]

Lol this is the graphic you are trusting. 

 

[Rd9108]

Literally has a snow hole right over the metro. Do you think that has a 100% chance of verifying?

[Ahoff]

6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol this is the graphic you are trusting. 

 

Now even accurate anymore, it updated higher, lol.

Point and click from the NWS even says 1-2” on Monday night.

[Rd9108]

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Now even accurate anymore, it updated higher, lol.

I didn't see it but even their wording says uncertainty since the squals could set up anywhere. Like I said it's now casting and I wouldn't expect anymore than an inch or two at most. Hoping for an inch and I think it's achievable.

[Ahoff]

30 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I didn't see it but even their wording says uncertainty since the squals could set up anywhere. Like I said it's now casting and I wouldn't expect anymore than an inch or two at most. Hoping for an inch and I think it's achievable.

Yeah, this is definitely a band dominant event.  Hopefully, we’ll get lucky.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

55 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

What the fuck are you looking at? This is all now casting with what bands we get. Right now the 18z Hrrr still had us at 1-2. 

Yeah, this.

Its all a nowcast situation, see if squalls setup and if so if your yard gets hit. 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Local school districts around here fayette county calling for 1pm early dismissals tomorrow