Burghblizz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just going to enjoy this one. Still got a couple inch base. I think there is a high floor with this one as mix or tight cutoffs aren’t an issue. It will be hard not to get a couple inches. On the other hand, hard to see it topping off at more than 4” or 5”, and it’s not like it’s a major storm elsewhere. Stress free. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 NWS seems to agree with the sentiment that this won’t bust badly, with probabilities of 2” at 85%+ across the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Of course, my favorite graphic is this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, TimB said: NWS seems to agree with the sentiment that this won’t bust badly, with probabilities of 2” at 85%+ across the county. I just think it's an easier forecast. It's mostly northern stream, no big phase, no crazy high movement, no temp issues, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I just think it's an easier forecast. It's mostly northern stream, no big phase, no crazy high movement, no temp issues, etc... Yeah. Definitely to be enjoyed. We don’t get these too often, let alone twice in the same week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12z NAM looks to hold suit. 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, MikeB_01 said: 12z NAM looks to hold suit. 3-5 Now casting always has surprises too. I'll take a nice moderate event before the pattern relaxation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Smiley had a widespread 4”-6”. Fairly aggressive for our broadcast mets. Might be thinking fluff factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Smiley had a widespread 4”-6”. Fairly aggressive for our broadcast mets. Might be thinking fluff factor. Jeff V might even be predicting more than just some now showers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Jeff V might even be predicting more than just some now showers! "accumulations totaling 1"-18"" -- Jeff V snow forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS is the same as well. 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 SREFs have been trending up over the last few runs. Not crazy, but up from 2.5 to 3.5 over the last 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2-6" seems like the appropriate call. If we pick up about 0.20" of precipitation, at 10:1 that's 2", but with temps in the low 20s we could go anywhere from 15-to-20:1 (loosely and disregarding dendrite growth analysis). Probably nothing higher than that. There's no frontogenesis or dynamics associated with redevelopment. This is a slightly juicier clipper. More of a duration and shield-dependent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It'll be nice to have an event where we don't have to worry about mixing or changeovers. Last weekend's storm kinda screwed us in the southern areas, but the early week event was a nice surprise with all snow. Looks like this will be more of the same with amounts maybe a little better than the last one. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: It'll be nice to have an event where we don't have to worry about mixing or changeovers. Last weekend's storm kinda screwed us in the southern areas, but the early week event was a nice surprise with all snow. Looks like this will be more of the same with amounts maybe a little better than the last one. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Much like a clipper which gives us some of the nicest snowfalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I don't know if any of you belong to this guy's Facebook page at all or what you think of him, but this is his call as of this morning. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 speed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro in line as well. This is the 10:1 ratio. If you go with the expected ratios, looking more like 4.5" from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 HRRR still around 4 inches fwiw Here's the euro with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Dewpoints are currently in the single digits. Does that mean we battle dry air at onset again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, TimB said: Dewpoints are currently in the single digits. Does that mean we battle dry air at onset again? HRRR shows that dry layer eroding away pretty rapidly. The good news is that it is a very thin layer of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 i looked outside and i see snow already. Certainly more robust on radar than what was modeled by the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Light snow falling here as well. Probably a good sign. Atmosphere moistened up ahead of the main storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 There's a bit of dry air in between the s/w's, but you can really see the separation of the jet steams in this shot. Too bad because we would have quite the moisture pool to tap into down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Should be a nice event for us. Very cold so no mixing worries, should fall all day. Only problem is lack of QPF but 3-6 is a solid event. No reason to look at the models for totals anymore. It's nowcasting time. Hopefully we get some surprises. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 hours ago, TimB said: Dewpoints are currently in the single digits. Does that mean we battle dry air at onset again? Doesn’t look like it it’s up to 18 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 hours ago, jwilson said: There's a bit of dry air in between the s/w's, but you can really see the separation of the jet steams in this shot. Too bad because we would have quite the moisture pool to tap into down there. Thats a pretty cool visual. You can see that lead s/w in the ns exiting the coast. To bad it wasn't more consolidated with the second piece. Probably would have phased with the southern stream earlier and this would have been a whole different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 DTs maps are always crazy. Probably slightly high on his totals but we shall see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Doesn’t seem to have the oomph it was supposed to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Things are not looking too hot. Got maybe an inch overnight and radar looks like junk at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now