Ahoff Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: If the GFS and globals show nothing I wouldn’t put any stock in longer tw short range models Short range models look a bit better. I guess we'll see what's going to happen. I'll stay positive for even a little something. Maybe a squall or two tomorrow whitens it up even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Gfs has nothing fwiw. Wish the globals got on board. CMC, ICON and UKMET are all fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, TimB said: CMC, ICON and UKMET are all fine. Yep let's see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Alright let’s pivot. I’m pretty sure the NY governor is basically trying to fix the Steelers game with a travel ban. Steelers were in a much more favored position with the game tomorrow and looking at the historically over amped NAM they are maybe 6” by tomorrow. She already showed her bias in her last news conference. .Edit:Looking at the local nws office afd they are calling for much more snow. I don’t follow lake effect snow much so maybe the models just don’t pick them up well? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Seeing some pretty good squalls moving through right now. If only one of these could last about 6 hours instead of 6 minutes, we'd be golden! LolSent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro isn't budging on the crazy precip the RGEM, ICON and NAM are showing. Verbatim it's still probably 1-2 with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Look at the difference between these two at the same hour Crazy difference there Phones about to die so I can't look at the 500s right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 57 minutes ago, Ecanem said: Alright let’s pivot. I’m pretty sure the NY governor is basically trying to fix the Steelers game with a travel ban. Steelers were in a much more favored position with the game tomorrow and looking at the historically over amped NAM they are maybe 6” by tomorrow. She already showed her bias in her last news conference. . Edit: Looking at the local nws office afd they are calling for much more snow. I don’t follow lake effect snow much so maybe the models just don’t pick them up well? Most models can’t really pick up a super micro event like LES bands. The 1-3 feet is probably accurate if you set up under a death band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Here's the 500 of the rgem vs euro same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Wind gust of 42.1 today. Highest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Wind gust of 42.1 today. Highest so far.I don’t have a station up at my place at seven springs but the winds are HOWLING up here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z mesos say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NAM anyway. RGEM somehow held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, TimB said: 18z mesos say no. It's over Time to chase the squalls now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like we got a nice little bit of snow last night. Covered the grass at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Got a quick unexpected inch here overnight and, given the temps, should be on the ground for a long time. Makes it feel like winter. The wind gust took a piece of siding off though, so it’s not all good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Snow Squall Warning for most of Butler and the western half of AGC right now. Imagine that will transition east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 26 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Snow Squall Warning for most of Butler and the western half of AGC right now. Imagine that will transition east. Looks like 1-2 inches here overnight. Hard to tell for sure with the blowing, but at least as much on the ground as the storm last weekend. Another batch overhead now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 NWS says snow likely Monday night. Then also says snow likely from Thursday into Saturday, with Friday showing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 HRRR is bringing the Mon-Tues event very close, just need a few ticks north. NAM 3km does bring it to us, but pretty light stuff, around an 1". Then for the Friday-Saturday event, both GFS and Euro are in the 3-6" range. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 One could argue next weekend always had more potential, but it's a little disappointing the energy isn't more consolidated for Tuesday, at least not right now. I think there remains a chance it could overperform or surprise us to some degree. It's going to be extra frustrating if we get out of this week without a bigger phased solution considering we watched two massive storms impact the Central U.S., however. We'll regulate over the last week of January, too, so it's sort of a kick to the groin. February will presumably offer more chances, and I suppose less blocking might be better for us inland folks. The break will be welcome either way (busting out and/or after tracking all these threats). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 20 minutes ago, jwilson said: One could argue next weekend always had more potential, but it's a little disappointing the energy isn't more consolidated for Tuesday, at least not right now. I think there remains a chance it could overperform or surprise us to some degree. It's going to be extra frustrating if we get out of this week without a bigger phased solution considering we watched two massive storms impact the Central U.S., however. We'll regulate over the last week of January, too, so it's sort of a kick to the groin. February will presumably offer more chances, and I suppose less blocking might be better for us inland folks. The break will be welcome either way (busting out and/or after tracking all these threats). Hopefully we can get efficient snow growth, to make up for the lack of qpf. As far as February, it’s always a fine line between blocking, and all out suppression. For us it’s always been the location, i.e. 2/5/10. It was like a see saw, where the blocking suppressed eastern pa, and popped a norlun trough west of the apps enhancing our precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 First call from NWS for Mon-Tues. They're more confident than a lot here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: First call from NWS for Mon-Tues. They're more confident than a lot here, lol. Already cut significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ehh I've stayed away from this one since it really hasn't looked good except the RGEM. Most likely a 1-2 storm with the really good bands missing just to our south. Who knows maybe nowcasting moves things north but I wouldn't bet on it. Good to see some winter weather regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Final thoughts for the night. RAP runs looks like a slight NW bump. Might have to keep an eye on that for our southern posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Ehh I've stayed away from this one since it really hasn't looked good except the RGEM. Most likely a 1-2 storm with the really good bands missing just to our south. Who knows maybe nowcasting moves things north but I wouldn't bet on it. Good to see some winter weather regardless. 1-2 seems reasonable. Ratios should be good to maximize what we get qpf wise. It does seem like the trend has been very tiny increments of improving as we get closer. If that continues maybe we can bump up to 2-4. Little sarcasm there. I feel like I've put a lot of energy into tracking this. Cold snow on snow in the teens and 20s is hard to beat in my book so I'll take what I can get. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Eh we will be lucky to get an inch from this. I guess enjoy what falls and then we turn our sights to the weekend. Better than last year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 51 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: 1-2 seems reasonable. Ratios should be good to maximize what we get qpf wise. It does seem like the trend has been very tiny increments of improving as we get closer. If that continues maybe we can bump up to 2-4. Little sarcasm there. I feel like I've put a lot of energy into tracking this. Cold snow on snow in the teens and 20s is hard to beat in my book so I'll take what I can get. Considering what some models were showing getting 1-2” seems like a win. And I don’t think we should be upset with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Considering what some models were showing getting 1-2” seems like a win. And I don’t think we should be upset with it. I would think we can be upset with 1-2” if Friday also busts. With yesterday’s snow, PIT is at 5.9” for the season. I personally would say a season total of 10.0” at the end of January is the bare minimum dividing line between being kinda bummed and complete despair. That requires us to get 4.1” before the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now