TheClimateChanger Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, we can toss this week. Next week looks to be an interesting one. We could see a bit this weekend too. The GFS suggests a couple inches from wraparound snows are possible. It does turn much colder Saturday afternoon, although I'm kind of doubtful the low stalls out for that long. May be too robust with the wraparound precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Hate tossing weeks when there aren’t that many left, but hopefully something pans out. I’m confident that with all these storms and polar vortex pieces rolling through the US, we have a good shot at cashing in somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Definitely tossing this week obviously with the warm Temps and flooding rains. Appears that we are under a wind advisory with winds up to 40mph and gusts up to 50. After that model guidance is all over the place. Might get lucky and get some wrap around snows but those are usually overdone. What looks promising is a period after the cutters and even a possible TPV invasion which would of course bring in cold and dry conditions. Who knoes sometimes you get some arctic squalls that are fun. Ensembles show signs of possible snow in the coming weeks but we have to get through some cutters first. Looks like our next period is the 16-17. Still plenty of winter left to cash, but you definitely hate tossing a week. February shows possible phase 7 of the MJO which gives you this pattern. The MJO looks like it flies through right to phase 7,8 which are more favorable for winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 53 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Definitely tossing this week obviously with the warm Temps and flooding rains. Appears that we are under a wind advisory with winds up to 40mph and gusts up to 50. After that model guidance is all over the place. Might get lucky and get some wrap around snows but those are usually overdone. What looks promising is a period after the cutters and even a possible TPV invasion which would of course bring in cold and dry conditions. Who knoes sometimes you get some arctic squalls that are fun. Ensembles show signs of possible snow in the coming weeks but we have to get through some cutters first. Looks like our next period is the 16-17. Still plenty of winter left to cash, but you definitely hate tossing a week. February shows possible phase 7 of the MJO which gives you this pattern. The MJO looks like it flies through right to phase 7,8 which are more favorable for winter weather. I'm not ready to toss out the storm this weekend, still has a shot to be weaker / further SE, maybe front end to slop type setup. Next storm after is probably better shot as we start to get some ridging in the west and cold air can come east along with the storm track. Good to see the MJO is flying through the bad phases. Should keep any negative effect minimal and set us up for a reload in Feb. Seems like we have some dice rolls, whether we hit on any who knows. Still better than last year at least having hope and interesting stuff to track. Now to go put some bricks in my garbage cans before the wind storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Agree with you guys. I'm still watching the possibility for MLK weekend. All the ensembles are in agreement with a TPV lobe over on our side of the continent. It's not quite in the 50/50 region, but it should - at least - provide ample cold and reduce any mixing concerns, although there's a wide range of possibilities from suppression to Apps runner. The GEPS is a bit more elongated and stretched with the cold versus the GEFS and EPS. The only other problem is the OP GFS, among others, wanting to retrograde all that energy back west underneath the NAO block. We'd prefer it to slide east instead. In theory, if we get the timing right between waves, it could still be good for us. The GFS kind of gets there, but I question how high the ceiling might be for an event in that circumstance. The progression of the wave is too fast to be historical, but maybe something moderately sized. If you're big game hunting, you'll notice the NAO block recedes the following weekend (20th) and that TPV spills into the more ideal 50/50 region. We are timing that with a western ridge popping up in the Spokane / Boise area. Textbook KU setup on the field. We will see if that look holds going forward as the preceding waves are completed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Well, p-type must have been snow at onset. What a slushy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Currently snowing in Upper st clair. It was rain and it’s back to snow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Roads are horrible Actually surprised to see borderline .5-1 inch of wet snow outside too. Figured it would be freezing rain straight to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Wow, came in fast. PIT has had 2/3 of an inch of precipitation already in three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: Wow, came in fast. PIT has had 2/3 of an inch of precipitation already in three hours. I was talking to met on another board from around here and he mentioned that's the reason for the snow. The precip came way faster than expected. He said the winds look to be pretty nasty later but not as bad as out further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Yeah, surprised how much snow was and has actually fallen. Good to know we’re getting good rates this year. Maybe bodes well later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Also, maybe can’t count out the weekend system. Highs on Saturday are about 33 now down from upper 30s yesterday and 20s Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 48 minutes ago, Ecanem said: Currently snowing in Upper st clair. It was rain and it’s back to snow. . Same, I'm really surprised to see it switch back to snow, that almost never happens once we go to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Also, maybe can’t count out the weekend system. Highs on Saturday are about 33 now down from upper 30s yesterday and 20s Sunday. That's why I'm not ready to toss that one out as a rainy cutter, it has a better shot of at least being a redeveloper, and we should have a little better cold to work with ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Picked up a quick inch earlier. Switched to rain around 6:30 and turned back to snow in the last hour hour and a half. Now it is mainly sleet. I am at a nice elevation and was traveling towards north park and roads are horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The early next week thing looks good on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 All rain in the south hills right now. Roads are a slushy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 39 minutes ago, TimB said: The early next week thing looks good on the Euro. 28 runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 28 runs to go Only 14 for those of us who don’t pay for pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 43 minutes ago, TimB said: Only 14 for those of us who don’t pay for pivotal Nah, Tidbits had 6z / 18z Euro free, albeit delayed out to 90. Your'e good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Canadian scored a mini coup this morning. I recall seeing this a few days ago, and thinking it was just an algorithm error. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Obviously take with a grain of salt, but the weather app on the iPhone has next week very cold and a snowstorm Tuesday with 9” of snow falling and a high/low of 19/11. Will change, but would be something to have a storm with temps that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GFS and its ensemble want nothing to do with that storm. More Arctic influence and deeper cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 22 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Obviously take with a grain of salt, but the weather app on the iPhone has next week very cold and a snowstorm Tuesday with 9” of snow falling and a high/low of 19/11. Will change, but would be something to have a storm with temps that cold. Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday: Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch. Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 37 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday: Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch. Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh. I haven’t seen that language that far out in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 39 minutes ago, TimB said: I haven’t seen that language that far out in awhile. The potential is there but way too far out honestly. This next cutter looks like it will probably be somewhere up through Ohio. Gfs is usually too progressive and Euro is usually too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday: Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch. Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh. TWC already hyping for a storm 6 days out... We wonder why people get angry when storms don't hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1.29” of precipitation reported on my weather station so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: 1.29” of precipitation reported on my weather station so far today. Another daily record at PIT. 1.25”. We’re slowly continuing to lose days that have never recorded an inch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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