Ahoff Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 54 minutes ago, TimB said: Indeed, it’s been a long, long time since we’ve had something like this on any model inside 5 days. Even an inch would be nice, just to see the ground whiten up a little, before the bulk of winter sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 And it’s basically gone at 0z. Hard to say we’re all that close to our first snowfall. CPC is forecasting a period of near normal temps, but with the caveat that they’re extremely bullish on this period being bone dry. (Not that “normal” in mid-December does all that much for us anyway.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Hopefully we start seeing at least a little digital snow to make things interesting. Maybe a long shot on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 25 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Hopefully we start seeing at least a little digital snow to make things interesting. Maybe a long shot on Sunday. Very long shot everything has trended worse since 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 What if it never snows again? Our last 3” snowfall was 3/12/22. On Sunday, we will move past a period from February 1979 to November 1980 for 3rd longest time between advisory level snows. We’d have to get to mid-February to reach 2nd place, and let’s hope that doesn’t happen. The most recent calendar year without an advisory level snowfall was 1998. We’re 24 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 2 hours ago, TimB said: What if it never snows again? Our last 3” snowfall was 3/12/22. On Sunday, we will move past a period from February 1979 to November 1980 for 3rd longest time between advisory level snows. We’d have to get to mid-February to reach 2nd place, and let’s hope that doesn’t happen. The most recent calendar year without an advisory level snowfall was 1998. We’re 24 days away. You’re joking right? Places across Europe have seen a very early start and colder than normal start to winter. There is literally nothing to suggest that winter will never act like it again. Our time will come again. The hysterics are wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Ron Smiley seems bullish on a relatively extended period of fairly heavy snow Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: Ron Smiley seems bullish on a relatively extended period of fairly heavy snow Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. No idea where he’s getting that from. This is a whole lot of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Yeah this has trended very poorly. Nam 3k has zero snow once it changes over. Even central PA is gonna miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 SREF atleast have an inch for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 hours ago, TimB said: No idea where he’s getting that from. This is a whole lot of nothing. Well, he showed an entire model run that backed it. Can’t remember which one he usually uses, so… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 18z gfs shows a nice paste bomb 9 days from now. Granted it probably will shift like crazy just nice seeing a threat. Also seems like the trend so far has been east just like Mondays mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 13 hours ago, Rd9108 said: 18z gfs shows a nice paste bomb 9 days from now. Granted it probably will shift like crazy just nice seeing a threat. Also seems like the trend so far has been east just like Mondays mess. It survived the 0z and 6z runs. Perhaps more importantly, the 0z Canadian bought in. Then again, temps are very marginal, it’s not on any ensemble and it’s 8-9 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, TimB said: It survived the 0z and 6z runs. Perhaps more importantly, the 0z Canadian bought in. Then again, temps are very marginal, it’s not on any ensemble and it’s 8-9 days away. 15 hours ago, Rd9108 said: 18z gfs shows a nice paste bomb 9 days from now. Granted it probably will shift like crazy just nice seeing a threat. Also seems like the trend so far has been east just like Mondays mess. Saw this on the gfs a few days ago, but didn’t give it a second look. But it could have legs if a logical evolution is being shown by midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Not saying I’m fully buying in at all, but is there anyone here who wouldn’t take 6-10” of slushy mess that melts in two days at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 51 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Saw this on the gfs a few days ago, but didn’t give it a second look. But it could have legs if a logical evolution is being shown by midweek. Noticed our first long range storm! At least it is something to track. I’m not sure that we had much of anything to track last year. That said, that track never works out for us. There was that storm a few years ago that actually went up the spine of the Appalachian’s and we still had massive mixing issues the whole storm. Went from looking like a foot plus type deal to 5-7 inches in most of the county with crap the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: Noticed our first long range storm! At least it is something to track. I’m not sure that we had much of anything to track last year. That said, that track never works out for us. There was that storm a few years ago that actually went up the spine of the Appalachian’s and we still had massive mixing issues the whole storm. Went from looking like a foot plus type deal to 5-7 inches in most of the county with crap the whole time. Not to worry, it’s gone at 12z. Even with the low way out east, we’re still getting a rainstorm. Like Tomlin and the Steelers losing back to back games at home to 2-10 teams, disappointing but not shocking. Christ, this time of year is so goddamn depressing around here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 32 minutes ago, TimB said: Not to worry, it’s gone at 12z. Even with the low way out east, we’re still getting a rainstorm. Like Tomlin and the Steelers losing back to back games at home to 2-10 teams, disappointing but not shocking. Christ, this time of year is so goddamn depressing around here anymore. Got to love those perfect track storms that don’t have any cold air. Though by the looks of that we dryslot massively so rather it just range then rage about us getting flurries and 3 inches while Columbus gets 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Meanwhile the GFS 6z has 2 feet following by Christmas Day, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 It appears that tomorrow/Mondays event will be just a near miss for a decent shot of light snow. NAM 3k is just a little too far east. We need a clipper or something to get the mood better in this place. One thing with tomorrow is it did trend slightly west but we are running out of time for this to move enough west to get something. In fact the HRRR has moved west as well. See if this trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 hours ago, Rd9108 said: It appears that tomorrow/Mondays event will be just a near miss for a decent shot of light snow. NAM 3k is just a little too far east. We need a clipper or something to get the mood better in this place. One thing with tomorrow is it did trend slightly west but we are running out of time for this to move enough west to get something. In fact the HRRR has moved west as well. See if this trend continues. Not to go off topic with hyperbole, but even in N/S dominant winters the Alberta Clipper seems to be less frequent than past winters, especially the last 10. Just feel like the 80’s 90’s and 00’s had more clippers, even during lean years. Could just be revisionist history being different from reality. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Not to go off topic with hyperbole, but even in N/S dominant winters the Alberta Clipper seems to be less frequent than past winters, especially the last 10. Just feel like the 80’s 90’s and 00’s had more clippers, even during lean years. Could just be revisionist history being different from reality. Lol I would tend to agree that clippers are more or less gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 18 hours ago, Ahoff said: Meanwhile the GFS 6z has 2 feet following by Christmas Day, lol. At least there are plenty of darts being thrown, gotta think if that continues one will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: At least there are plenty of darts being thrown, gotta think if that continues one will work out. Eventually we'll get something. It likely won't be 2 feet, but a couple inches will come. Though some think it'll never snow again, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Eventually we'll get something. It likely won't be 2 feet, but a couple inches will come. Though some think it'll never snow again, lol. We’re going to have a lot of ground to make up to get even close to normal for the season when (if?) the pattern flips. Back to back rotten winters (and 3 out of 5) is certainly a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Man we are prime location if global warming ramps up. We get plenty of moisture and if the temperatures increase we are looking at golf weather year round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, TimB said: We’re going to have a lot of ground to make up to get even close to normal for the season when (if?) the pattern flips. Back to back rotten winters (and 3 out of 5) is certainly a possibility. We're literally like 4-5" below average right now, not 20". We know crappy Decembers don't mean a crappy winter (see '14-'15. This is not a really snowy time of year normally anyway, I mean it is December the 10th, can we give it even a little bit of a chance at this point? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 HRRR seems to have trended more west, for what it's worth. Really, it's not worth much at this point, as it's not our system, but maybe that bodes well for the season when we sit on an western edge. We'll see, or we'll get nothing all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 40 minutes ago, Ahoff said: HRRR seems to have trended more west, for what it's worth. Really, it's not worth much at this point, as it's not our system, but maybe that bodes well for the season when we sit on a western edge. We'll see, or we'll get nothing all winter. I’m in the 1-3” zone but will believe it if I see it in the morning…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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