PghPirates27 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Given continued uncertainty, have held of on any Advisory/Warning decisions until later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Potential westward shift in snow amounts and minor impacts from this weekend's system are trending further west with the latest model guidance. We'll continue to evaluate through the day today. From KPIT, about as good as you’ll get from them. Thats actually fairly responsive, usually you don't see comments on the recent model runs that soon. Would be nice to see things keep improving, even if only marginally until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Thats actually fairly responsive, usually you don't see comments on the recent model runs that soon. Would be nice to see things keep improving, even if only marginally until game time. Meh. Can’t give them that much credit. It’s been two full cycles of these shifts and not to mention even when things looked not ideal there was still a bunch of support for at least 1-2 inches and not the .1 inch they predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Given continued uncertainty, have held of on any Advisory/Warning decisions until later today. I’d go advisory 2”-5”. Bottom and top end are two different impacts, but you can package it into one forecast that makes you look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Funny I just had KDKA on the radio and they are going with a big downgrade from 3-6 at the beginning of the week to maybe an inch tomorrow. You can tell they still have old data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Not even sure why I’m looking at this - but 12Z Euro takes next weekends monster storm and eliminates the severe cutting. Takes a primary into Ky/southern Oh, and then pops a secondary over DC. That look never seems to hold, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: Not even sure why I’m looking at this - but 12Z Euro takes next weekends monster storm and eliminates the severe cutting. Takes a primary into Ky/southern Oh, and then pops a secondary over DC. That look never seems to hold, but something to watch. Miller B type storm on the GFS and CMC too right now for next weekend. Should be an interesting week for tracking if that trend to pop a secondary further SE continues. Probably not completely cooked on a front thump on Tuesday either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18z HRRR is THUMPING after a couple hours of some dynamic cooling happens in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WWA for Westmoreland. Winter Weather Advisory Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh, PA 2:23 PM EST Fri, Jan 5, 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and western Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 36 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: I’d go advisory 2”-5”. Bottom and top end are two different impacts, but you can package it into one forecast that makes you look good Was about to claim victory for this since it popped up for me - but doesn’t look like they have one for AGC yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Was about to claim victory for this since it popped up for me - but doesn’t look like they have one for AGC yet I made it in! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Lol can’t make this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WWA but the forecast has rain/snow mix all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, PghPirates27 said: WWA but the forecast has rain/snow mix all night. Forecast probably isn't updated at the exact time that they put out the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 They’re up from .1” to 1.5”, so that’s something I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hrrr looks great. One met mentioned this Remember that the HRRR has a warm surface temperature bias in its extended range. Temperatures will likely verify a few degrees colder than what it's forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I’d like to break our already ridiculous streak of no advisory level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 FWIW, SREF plumes up around 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Forecast probably isn't updated at the exact time that they put out the advisory. Thanks. Just thought it was odd to see rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I would expect at least some rain. Synoptic systems that are 100% snow are nearly impossible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18Z NAM looks largely the same - maybe a tick stronger and cooler. Extreme SW PA does a little better this run. Maybe that will be enough to expand the adv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Lol can’t make this up Not sure why Allegheny County doesn't have a WWA now. Forecast just changed to all snow, tomorrow through Sunday.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: 18Z NAM looks largely the same - maybe a tick stronger and cooler. Extreme SW PA does a little better this run. Maybe that will be enough to expand the adv. I don’t buy those high totals and I’m capping my expectation at 4”, but that certainly would be a welcome surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Miller B type storm on the GFS and CMC too right now for next weekend. Should be an interesting week for tracking if that trend to pop a secondary further SE continues. Probably not completely cooked on a front thump on Tuesday either. Wondering if we sacrifice a stronger storm Tuesday to bomb out and reinforce NAO block next week. Potent shortwave into the TV/OV with the transfer to coast.. Sorta like what was depicted for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The Nam is wild. It went from no storm to being our biggest hit in 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, dj3 said: The Nam is wild. It went from no storm to being our biggest hit in 36 hours That's the NAM for you. Hoping for 2-4 maybe we get 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Lol. The trib still has an article out quoting nws in focuses that there will be little to no snow locally. Meanwhile we might get 4-6 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NWS point and click and zones still seem wonky, as far as timing, probabilities, amounts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, TimB said: NWS point and click and zones still seem wonky, as far as timing, probabilities, amounts, etc. I don't think those point-and-click forecasts are made by people plugging in data. I think it's automatic from their backend software / system. I want to test the NBM. Right now, it says 9% chance of snow exceeding 4" and 43% chance of snow exceeding 2" (this is in the city). Making a note now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Point and click is better though. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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