MikeB_01 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 my concern at this point is that the DWTD usually gets closer than what is modeled. Warm air advection is not always modeled well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: my concern at this point is that the DWTD usually gets closer than what is modeled. Warm air advection is not always modeled well. You may be on to something. 850s are right at freezing on the NAM at hour 30 when some of the heaviest precipitation is falling. Even a fraction of a degree warmer will melt the snow before it reaches the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: my concern at this point is that the DWTD usually gets closer than what is modeled. Warm air advection is not always modeled well. Hence why I'm sure kpitt put it in their forecast. Gonna be fun radar watching if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If this piece of shit turns out to be a mini 1/19/19 I’m done with weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, TimB said: If this piece of shit turns out to be a mini 1/19/19 I’m done with weather. Strong chance it does but rgem is not anything like the NAMs so wagons west may not be a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Strong chance it does but rgem is not anything like the NAMs so wagons west may not be a thing. Meh, what do the Canadian models know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, TimB said: Meh, what do the Canadian models know? Hmm idk it has been the only model to show the more "northern" solutions this whole time. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them. I wouldn't expect anything more than 2-4 at the most to keep your expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This doesn't look like the NAM or HRRR not saying it's right but it can't just be tossed aside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: This doesn't look like the NAM or HRRR not saying it's right but it can't just be tossed aside I’d settle for that snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 minutes ago, TimB said: I’d settle for that snow total. Hard not too, with all the snowfall futility and warm weather records of late. Ninth lowest snowfall to date on record. Several recent years show up, including 2007, 2016 & 2022 with even slower starts. Eighth lowest seasonal snowfall on record last winter [3rd lowest at KPIT]. 1879-1880 shows 10.2 inches, but snowfall records don't begin until 1/1/1880, so I filtered that out. As for the other years showing missing days, typically with multiples of 30/31, it's just warm weather months where they didn't fill in zeroes showing up as missing - but there could be missing data. I did not check. One thing that's interesting is how there's less and less snowfall prior to early January. The total seasonal snowfall continues to be dominated by lower elevation city data, which also far predates the use of a snowboard and 6-hour measurements. Of course, it doesn't matter where or how the snow is measured if there's simply no snow falling (which increasingly appears to be the case before early/mid January). EDIT: NWS Pittsburgh has 1889-1890 at 11.4 inches, not 10.4 inches. All of the other years appear to match the NWS data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Gfs isn't hearing it either fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Gfs isn't hearing it either fwiw. Could be worse. Through Hour 57, Kuchera is showing 2.0 inches at Pittsburgh (City), and 10:1 ratio is showing 2.7 inches [on the Pivotal Weather site, anyways]. I think most of us would accept a couple of inches at this point. Just a shame we are in the heart of winter and 10:1 ratio is yielding more than Kuchera. I think Kuchera clown maps are a thing of the past. It's just too warm to get it to show those absurb ratios these days. Kuchera ratio snowfall has generally been less than 10:1 ratio this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Honestly gfs looks identical to the NAM with the low placement. Would have to look at the 500mb to see the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Could be worse. Through Hour 57, Kuchera is showing 2.0 inches at Pittsburgh (City), and 10:1 ratio is showing 2.7 inches [on the Pivotal Weather site, anyways]. I think most of us would accept a couple of inches at this point. Just a shame we are in the heart of winter and 10:1 ratio is yielding more than Kuchera. I think Kuchera clown maps are a thing of the past. It's just too warm to get it to show those absurb ratios these days. And the accumulations are going to be limited by air temps slightly above freezing and warm ground, so we’ll need the heavy rates to verify to even have a prayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This definitely gonna be nowcasting. The meso models have the low getting further and closer to us before transferring. The gfs and cmc have it transferring earlier. It could be all model noise but these little details matter for us. It seems like it's all meso models want to take the low closer to us which brings the rates but also the mix line. It's never easy for us. My gut tells me the 18z HRRR and NAMs head more toward the gfs and cmc but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 One thing about the GFS these past few years, is that inside 3 or 4 days it digs in, and does not budge. Does it go down with the ship, or continue to prove itself king worthy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Back in the game on the Ukie, for whatever that’s worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: One thing about the GFS these past few years, is that inside 3 or 4 days it digs in, and does not budge. Does it go down with the ship, or continue to prove itself king worthy ? Gfs is kind of on its own at this point. Everything else is showing a advisory level event at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 All about if the mesos can win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Well I took my outside Christmas lights down today. I've been waiting to get another snow cover to see them but figured I might as well get it put away. So y'all can Thank me when your watching heavy snow tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I also got appreciate the balls of KPIT to put out predictions in certain areas of a t-5 inches. Really out on a limb there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Well I took my outside Christmas lights down today. I've been waiting to get another snow cover to see them but figured I might as well get it put away. So y'all can Thank me when your watching heavy snow tomorrow. Thanks! I’ve been holding out for the same reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I also got appreciate the balls of KPIT to put out predictions in certain areas of a t-5 inches. Really out on a limb there. Pittsburgh Regional Transit posted on social media something about “1-17 inches of snow” predicted for parts of our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro improved. Dumps a pretty quick 4-5 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, TimB said: Pittsburgh Regional Transit posted on social media something about “1-17 inches of snow” predicted for parts of our area. Where are they seeing 17 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, TheClimateChanger said: Where are they seeing 17 inches? Who knows. There is literally no model or forecast anywhere that shows 17 inches for any location anywhere near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 FWIW, weather underground for my location has bumped up in the last 24 hours and now shows 4” and changed the verbiage to “3 to 5 inches expected” whereas before it was 1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, TimB said: Who knows. There is literally no model or forecast anywhere that shows 17 inches for any location anywhere near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Time for KPIT to adjust. Not a great play to be showing half an inch in the point and click. The hints of this have been here for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Potential westward shift in snow amounts and minor impacts from this weekend's system are trending further west with the latest model guidance. We'll continue to evaluate through the day today. From KPIT, about as good as you’ll get from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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