RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, jwilson said: I just ran through the 12Z run, and I think the first period to watch for something is next weekend. Caveat emptor: we've seen the danger with long-range solutions. If you're still depressed by long-range tracking then look away now and don't come back until next Friday. The Canadian has a beautiful look with a 50/50 held in by the growing eastward -NAO block. The shortwave is rolling through Tennessee. The evolution shows suppression, which is possible, but that sort of detail at this range is largely ignored. For now we're just looking to get the players on the field. The only problem is it's sort of on its own at that particular timeframe. The GFS has something a little later with a ridiculous spike in the western ridge. The GFS holds the energy back which corresponds with its deep central trough paired with the aforementioned ridge. The Canadian is dropping a massive -PNA at this same time, so they are basically opposites in the west, but the GFS potential would be even greater. It runs the low right up the Appalachians after deepening in the Gulf. It also shows a TPV lobe splitting and settling in to the north of us. The GFS also shows that beautiful triumvirate of High pressures, a Banana high +1. The question would be which of these elements wins out: the -NAO, the Southeast Ridge, or the TPV lobe? That SER actually helps to push the storm further inland, which might be better for us in Pittsburgh and worse for the coastal areas, but it could also be too much of a good thing. Then there's the blocking which modeled too strong or too weak can alter the formula. The other danger here is this is the first operational run to show a solution like this, so it could easily disappear at 18Z, thus taking the time to analyze it pointless. HOWEVER, the look from the GFS is mostly supported by all the Ensembles (GEPS, GEFS, and the EPS). They all show these players in position (West ridge, central trough, SER, transitioning TPV). They aren't exact mirrors but close enough at 200+ hours to consider the OP isn't totally off on its own. BUT, once again - I mainly wanted to point to the potential of the MLK weekend. Maybe we come up empty. Right now it looks as if we could have a better front-end position for something (unlike this weekend). Hopefully those looks don't evaporate now because, dammit, I tried! I agree 100% with this, alter any of these variables slightly combined with timing of different shortwaves (all within acceptable model error) and things will look totally different, not necessarily bad different, but minor changes can have big effects down stream. I think folks forget those minor changes (errors) grow exponentially with time. When you are trying to nail down where a 100 mile stripe of heavy snow will hit it makes all the difference even though the 500mb pattern was mostly correct at day 10+. Your efforts are appreciated, even if this specific solution evaporates. We need more types of discussion like this in our area imho. If the pattern ends up similar to what is advertised there will be a storm of some type in that time frame. I think my biggest concern for failure is if that trough in west is really deep, -PNA flexes the SER to much and we end up on the wrong side of the boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 RGEM is not giving up even if its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just looked at the latest NWS forecast for the area. Saturday....snow. Saturday night.....snow. Sunday......snow. 80 and 90 percent chances. Am I missing something? Models seems to only be giving us an inch or two now. A steady snow event for that long of a period would have to give us more. Quite a bit more. Unless they think it's going to be a very light snow, but usually they say "light snow". Pretty drastic change from their last forecast. And showing colder high temps as well now. Just throwing that out there. The forecast may change several more times back and forth. Who knows. LolSent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Just looked at the latest NWS forecast for the area. Saturday....snow. Saturday night.....snow. Sunday......snow. 80 and 90 percent chances. Am I missing something? Models seems to only be giving us an inch or two now. A steady snow event for that long of a period would have to give us more. Quite a bit more. Unless they think it's going to be a very light snow, but usually they say "light snow". Pretty drastic change from their last forecast. And showing colder high temps as well now. Just throwing that out there. The forecast may change several more times back and forth. Who knows. Lol Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Everything is trending worse except the RGEM. So I doubt we see anything more than an inch or two at the absolute most. This honest looks like crap now. The Northeast are relying on the deform band now to set up and deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I agree 100% with this, alter any of these variables slightly combined with timing of different shortwaves (all within acceptable model error) and things will look totally different, not necessarily bad different, but minor changes can have big effects down stream. I think folks forget those minor changes (errors) grow exponentially with time. When you are trying to nail down where a 100 mile stripe of heavy snow will hit it makes all the difference even though the 500mb pattern was mostly correct at day 10+. Your efforts are appreciated, even if this specific solution evaporates. We need more types of discussion like this in our area imho. If the pattern ends up similar to what is advertised there will be a storm of some type in that time frame. I think my biggest concern for failure is if that trough in west is really deep, -PNA flexes the SER to much and we end up on the wrong side of the boundary. Agree on your last point, and I'd be remiss to mention that there's a chance we could be dealing with a train of cutters while the West and that nasty -PNA sorts itself out. Unfortunately, the long-range Euro looks a lot like the CMC (GGEM) in this regard, while the GFS essentially has a +PNA at that same time, which is what would help drive our MLK weekend storm. Which suite has the better grasp? Is the GFS too fast and progressive with the pattern? However, what the GFS doesn't have that the other two do is a strengthening Alaskan ridge. Get a -EPO and a -NAO formed into a massive longitudinal block and everything is forced underneath into the U.S. THAT would be an interesting development. I really think in the next 45 days or so there will be at least one significant KU somewhere. Whether we feel those same effects is the pertinent local question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Everything is trending worse except the RGEM. So I doubt we see anything more than an inch or two at the absolute most. This honest looks like crap now. The Northeast are relying on the deform band now to set up and deliver the goods. Yeah, that's why I found their latest forecast odd and wasn't sure why they changed it so drastically.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I say screw the models. This is the only one giving us some snow. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2024010500&fh=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM is better for us plain and simple. Last minute trend for atleast something measurable perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: NAM is better for us plain and simple. Last minute trend for atleast something measurable perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: It's a big jump between 18z and 0z. Now don't get me wrong I don't see this getting too much better but we still have time for some trends. We track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: It's a big jump between 18z and 0z. Now don't get me wrong I don't see this getting too much better but we still have time for some trends. We track Now look at the NAM3k. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, TimB said: Now look at the NAM3k. Lol. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I always like when this gets in range. It's not the dark dark blues but still looks good. Fwiw https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Positive energy I'm bringing here. Icon fwiw If the GFS hops on board then I'll get atleast somewhat intrigued and hopeful. As of now this storm has been fascinating to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Gfs looked like 2-3. It is looking more like an advisory level event right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Good trends so far tonight! Keep it moving west!! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12k NAMd us hard 3k as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Sref positive trends so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Why am I up at 5 AM you ask. Well there's a fire in Manchester that we had to transfer for. Why all this being said. NWS is not on board for anything more than 2 inches. So of course take the models for fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NWS has also introduced a good chunk of the period where snow will mix with rain. But they do mention the HRRR in their forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I think weather karma owes us a last minute NW tick for all the last minute NW ticks that provided slop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I don’t think anyone would be sad at this in western PA based on the roller coaster of the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12z nam looks like a pretty big thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 12z nam looks like a pretty big thump It’s honestly, with how fast it falls, a borderline warning level event. Get like 4-6 inches in six hours. KPIT is going to look bad on this one as well. They’ve basically been saying it’s a non event in the media which while things didn’t look great on some models there was always support for at least 1-3 inches on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 12z nam looks like a pretty big thump Both NAMs look fantastic. The 3k gives a couple hours of 2”/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, TimB said: Both NAMs look fantastic. The 3k gives a couple hours of 2”/hr rates. That's all I want in a storm honestly. Give me the heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The real kick in the teeth now would if this goes too far north and we change to rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: It’s honestly, with how fast it falls, a borderline warning level event. Get like 4-6 inches in six hours. KPIT is going to look bad on this one as well. They’ve basically been saying it’s a non event in the media which while things didn’t look great on some models there was always support for at least 1-3 inches on the models They still could be right - but I think somewhere in the middle…. 2-4” from NW to SE is becoming a good bet. And like someone said - I’m also a big fan of rates (especially in the daytime). I’d be happy to get a couple hours of 1”+ in the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Burghblizz said: They still could be right - but I think somewhere in the middle…. 2-4” from NW to SE is becoming a good bet. And like someone said - I’m also a big fan of rates (especially in the daytime). I’d be happy to get a couple hours of 1”+ in the middle of the day. Seriously give me 4 hours of inch rates during the day and it'll satisfy my snow itch. Now we just need the models to converge on this solution. Crazy how much this storm changed in 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k gets that mix line awfully close. Have to smell the sleet to get the better rates they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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