dj3 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 56 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: KPIT has rain and snow mixed saturday…s this storm going to not only be weak, south, but also no old air? I think it is because we are far enough away from the low on the coast where our precipitation is light. Some of the big hits it showed a few days back I would guess were all snow and actually colder due to the heavier rates aiding in dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: So I've bitched one time and yet you troll and complain constantly. I honestly don't care if we get any snow at this point. I'll take a winter like last year. It was awesome golfing in January and Febuary. Global Warming ftw!!! I'm gonna continue to spray my spray paint and drive my big diesel truck. In fact how can I speed the process up?!? Haha I despise playing in the winter so even if it was warm enough I probably wouldn't. I'd like a snowy Dec-Feb then it can flip the switch and March and we're on to golf season. That never seems to happen lately though. I remember playing at Totter Ridge memorial day weekend a few years back and it was in the 40s in the afternoon. Hands were numb and could barely hold on to the club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, dj3 said: I think it is because we are far enough away from the low on the coast where our precipitation is light. Some of the big hits it showed a few days back I would guess were all snow and actually colder due to the heavier rates aiding in dynamic cooling. True. I remember even February 5-6 2010 started as a bit of mist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just my opinion, take it for what it's worth. It's really not worth getting upset or angry about when we miss on one at this point. We've missed on so many, we should all be numb to it by now anyway. Lol I haven't really been as much into the hobby the past few years. I've had personal reasons, but also, I was in a bad accident in early 2022 that was weather related. It was a miracle that I walked away from it. So, when we had our mild winter last winter, I took a positive from it. I rarely had to deal with bad roads, which was nice. I admit, this one sucked me back in a little bit. But, no surprise that it ended up going the other direction for us as so many have before. There will be other chances it looks like. At least there has been something to track for a change. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I would rather potentially miss 4 days out then get a storm where the consensus is 6”+ and we end up with a mix and 1” of slop. All too often we think too much about how we got there not the end result. Snow is snow no matter if it exceeds forecast or falls short. 4”+ of snow can either be great - or a let down. But it’s still the same. Stay level and don’t get too high or too low. Keep it all in perspective. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 21 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Just my opinion, take it for what it's worth. It's really not worth getting upset or angry about when we miss on one at this point. We've missed on so many, we should all be numb to it by now anyway. Lol I haven't really been as much into the hobby the past few years. I've had personal reasons, but also, I was in a bad accident in early 2022 that was weather related. It was a miracle that I walked away from it. So, when we had our mild winter last winter, I took a positive from it. I rarely had to deal with bad roads, which was nice. I admit, this one sucked me back in a little bit. But, no surprise that it ended up going the other direction for us as so many have before. There will be other chances it looks like. At least there has been something to track for a change. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk I agree with this. At this point it’s just expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro continues to be the most amped model fwiw. I guess we shall see what 0z does. Also KPitt you realize I'm fucking around right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This one’s dead I guess. I don’t think I’m even going to get invested in anymore this year. Whatever happens happens. I can’t worry about these types of things. I’ll check in, but that’s it. It’ll snow again one day, who knows when though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 27 minutes ago, Ahoff said: This one’s dead I guess. I don’t think I’m even going to get invested in anymore this year. Whatever happens happens. I can’t worry about these types of things. I’ll check in, but that’s it. It’ll snow again one day, who knows when though. There’s always next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, TimB said: There’s always next year. To be clear, I’m not writing off the year, I’m just not going to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Lol. NWS says it’s 50/50 that we don’t get ANY measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Not over yet and now there is a great lakes low that is appearing screwing everything up. Idt this done trending quite yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We might have gotten more snow last night then the storm this weekend. Rgem looks the best, NAM isn't bad but I doubt we see anything more than an inch or two at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 While I know that this isn’t going to be a huge event, kpit’s forecast seems kind of laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 33 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: While I know that this isn’t going to be a huge event, kpit’s forecast seems kind of laughable. Yeah, I'd "expect" after they digest today's 12z runs, a more detailed forecast discussion will be issued assuming there is much of anything to discuss for our area outside of snow showers mixing with rain... This thing morphing to a late blooming miller A type storm with a track a bit to far east isn't doing us any good. I'd expect if we are going to see maybe a little faster deepening or wobbles to the NW in track which would help us squeeze something out of this that would also start today if it's going to happen. 6z Euro looked a little better, but I think we are really looking at trying to scrape together a 2-3 inch type event at this point at best. Either way, outside of the mountains in central PA, totals aren't super impressive, it's not like we are getting fringed on some blockbuster storm here if it doesn't work out. Long range still looks good for opportunities as we go through January. If I had a concern it would be we keep seeing lake cutters on the operational runs. I'm hoping energy doesn't get stuck in a deep trough out west pumping an eastern ridge that the ENS means are smoothing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 What a glorious day, 30 years ago. SMH In the middle of an epic 4 year run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Again, I'll take just the grass covered at this point as I said from the get go before the new year. We're halfways there after overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Gordo74 said: Again, I'll take just the grass covered at this point as I said from the get go before the new year. We're halfways there after overnight. That will be melted by afternoon with temps in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Yeah we are missing a quick hitting 6-8 inch storm at the absolute most and it's all gonna be gone in a day or two. Definitely doesn't hurt as much as say like 2016. You start to care less about snow after you almost total your car in the ice/snow. Not to mention having to deal with it on my job. I still enjoy the heavy snowfall and tracking the threats but it doesn't hurt as much now. We are just in a bad stretch, it will change I'm sure you could go through our history and see other examples of bad stretches. I always said I'd take no snow all year to cash out on the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 49 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: What a glorious day, 30 years ago. SMH In the middle of an epic 4 year run. If only someone would tell us when we are living presently in the "good ole days". Its a no wonder my brain is skewed as to what to expect in winter being 12-16 years old through that time period. Epic storm in early January, I'd kill for that now. Thanks for that bit of nostalgia, true SW PA bullseye there. I recall arguing with my friend on the phone that night after seeing the snow totals map Joe had up, my friend thought we were getting that much more on top of what had already fallen lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I know storm 2 is primarily a rain storm but I see our normally conservative NWS rolled it out with a 90% chance of precip from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, TimB said: That will be melted by afternoon with temps in the mid 30s. Yup and I’ll be happy for it after 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I find it funny that they hyped this storm up so much around here that i have people asking me about the "big snownstorm" this weekend. If you really look at the models this was advertised as a big snow storm for 36 hr maybe 48, and this was basically still 5 or 6 days put. Thats forever I'm model land. Atleast this was a quick rug pull and not a slap in the face. The 18z runs on Jan 2 was the first signs of this being dramatically different evolution than what is unfolding now. Maybe sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The latest GFS suggests that nothing is a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 What does it take for us to get an actual snowstorm around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Still 48 hours out and big differences in models. Canadian gives us a good 2-4 inches of moderate snow for 5 or 6 hours. GFS goes east and gives us nothing more than a flurry. Something has got to change today. Wouldn't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This is the problem with modeling in a fast flow. The models waffle all over the place constantly, and there's all these discrete pieces of energy, they can't decide what's going to win. It might become a nowcast event, but I still think the long range holds promise. That big -NAO block hasn't gone away, and the longer range shows a relaxation of sorts for the -PNA. Maybe it just comes down to timing something right or watching for that block to relax. There's real potential, which is more than I can say for the last couple years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro joins GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: Euro joins GFS. Yeah figured it would. Cmc is too amped. Atleast mid month looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I just ran through the 12Z run, and I think the first period to watch for something is next weekend. Caveat emptor: we've seen the danger with long-range solutions. If you're still depressed by long-range tracking then look away now and don't come back until next Friday. The Canadian has a beautiful look with a 50/50 held in by the growing eastward -NAO block. The shortwave is rolling through Tennessee. The evolution shows suppression, which is possible, but that sort of detail at this range is largely ignored. For now we're just looking to get the players on the field. The only problem is it's sort of on its own at that particular timeframe. The GFS has something a little later with a ridiculous spike in the western ridge. The GFS holds the energy back which corresponds with its deep central trough paired with the aforementioned ridge. The Canadian is dropping a massive -PNA at this same time, so they are basically opposites in the west, but the GFS potential would be even greater. It runs the low right up the Appalachians after deepening in the Gulf. It also shows a TPV lobe splitting and settling in to the north of us. The GFS also shows that beautiful triumvirate of High pressures, a Banana high +1. The question would be which of these elements wins out: the -NAO, the Southeast Ridge, or the TPV lobe? That SER actually helps to push the storm further inland, which might be better for us in Pittsburgh and worse for the coastal areas, but it could also be too much of a good thing. Then there's the blocking which modeled too strong or too weak can alter the formula. The other danger here is this is the first operational run to show a solution like this, so it could easily disappear at 18Z, thus taking the time to analyze it pointless. HOWEVER, the look from the GFS is mostly supported by all the Ensembles (GEPS, GEFS, and the EPS). They all show these players in position (West ridge, central trough, SER, transitioning TPV). They aren't exact mirrors but close enough at 200+ hours to consider the OP isn't totally off on its own. BUT, once again - I mainly wanted to point to the potential of the MLK weekend. Maybe we come up empty. Right now it looks as if we could have a better front-end position for something (unlike this weekend). Hopefully those looks don't evaporate now because, dammit, I tried! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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