RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: NAM amped more than 6z so far let's see if it affects the outcome downstream. Extrapolation of the NAM, the last refuge of a scoundrel Pittsburgh Snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It seems the big problem going forward is going to be a -PNA. Now we have most of the energy being held back into the west, a pronounced trough there, and zero blocking. The 50/50 is more like 60/60. The issue with the following storm is there is no competition in the CONUS, so it sucks up all the energy, and there's no block to keep it from cutting - even if it were to weaken somewhat closer to onset. That's the storm that helps setup a -NAO for the following weekend. However, the -PNA continues and could potentially cancel out the block up north. The question going forward then is: who wins between a -PNA and -NAO? Recent history suggests the pacific wins, but that's TBD. We also see, in this example, that a true Miller A will only work for the Pittsburgh area when it has time to really deepen and strengthen before approaching the coast. It has to start bombing out in the Gulf. Without the inland primary like in a Miller B, a progressive flow shunts all the snow south and east. Miller Bs present their own problems, of course, like mixing and dry slots, but without that initial primary coming across, you risk getting nothing but high clouds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Thanks for your expert analysis. Unfortunately our wait for a decent snowfall continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I lied looks like poop. Maybe it busts in a good way. That NAM run is probably one of the most comical things I’ve ever seen. I know it’s the NAM at range, but LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, jwilson said: It seems the big problem going forward is going to be a -PNA. Now we have most of the energy being held back into the west, a pronounced trough there, and zero blocking. The 50/50 is more like 60/60. The issue with the following storm is there is no competition in the CONUS, so it sucks up all the energy, and there's no block to keep it from cutting - even if it were to weaken somewhat closer to onset. That's the storm that helps setup a -NAO for the following weekend. However, the -PNA continues and could potentially cancel out the block up north. The question going forward then is: who wins between a -PNA and -NAO? Recent history suggests the pacific wins, but that's TBD. We also see, in this example, that a true Miller A will only work for the Pittsburgh area when it has time to really deepen and strengthen before approaching the coast. It has to start bombing out in the Gulf. Without the inland primary like in a Miller B, a progressive flow shunts all the snow south and east. Miller Bs present their own problems, of course, like mixing and dry slots, but without that initial primary coming across, you risk getting nothing but high clouds. Translation: this is going to be hell for quite some time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, TimB said: Translation: this is going to be hell for quite some time? Maybe you should step away from model runs for a week for your mental health. We all want snow as much as the next person but you are becoming extremely negative over this. Fwiw 12z RGEM looks decent for a small event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 48 minutes ago, TimB said: These days we’re Detroit for sports and Raleigh for weather. What more is there to say? At least they've got some good college football up there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gfs looks like poopy while the CMC looks good. Euro next. Those 6+ totals are probably off the table but maybe we can get a 2-4 hit. Which is basically a good clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, jwilson said: It seems the big problem going forward is going to be a -PNA. Now we have most of the energy being held back into the west, a pronounced trough there, and zero blocking. The 50/50 is more like 60/60. The issue with the following storm is there is no competition in the CONUS, so it sucks up all the energy, and there's no block to keep it from cutting - even if it were to weaken somewhat closer to onset. That's the storm that helps setup a -NAO for the following weekend. However, the -PNA continues and could potentially cancel out the block up north. The question going forward then is: who wins between a -PNA and -NAO? Recent history suggests the pacific wins, but that's TBD. We also see, in this example, that a true Miller A will only work for the Pittsburgh area when it has time to really deepen and strengthen before approaching the coast. It has to start bombing out in the Gulf. Without the inland primary like in a Miller B, a progressive flow shunts all the snow south and east. Miller Bs present their own problems, of course, like mixing and dry slots, but without that initial primary coming across, you risk getting nothing but high clouds. The upcoming storm the Miller B Primary jump to the coast is still there, albeit the primary is very weak. The whole thing is trending weaker and faster. Sure there will be a narrow stripe of winners but not really the impressive widespread impact storm that was modeled a couple days ago. True Miller A's I agree, they need to be well defined and take an inland track with a mature CCB to transport moisture off the Atlantic over the mountains by the time the reach our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2nd storm is a warning level event on the Canadian, lol. Nevermind that verbatim it has snow falling in some areas with 558 thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It seems the big problem going forward is going to be a -PNA. Now we have most of the energy being held back into the west, a pronounced trough there, and zero blocking. The 50/50 is more like 60/60. The issue with the following storm is there is no competition in the CONUS, so it sucks up all the energy, and there's no block to keep it from cutting - even if it were to weaken somewhat closer to onset. That's the storm that helps setup a -NAO for the following weekend. However, the -PNA continues and could potentially cancel out the block up north. The question going forward then is: who wins between a -PNA and -NAO? Recent history suggests the pacific wins, but that's TBD. We also see, in this example, that a true Miller A will only work for the Pittsburgh area when it has time to really deepen and strengthen before approaching the coast. It has to start bombing out in the Gulf. Without the inland primary like in a Miller B, a progressive flow shunts all the snow south and east. Miller Bs present their own problems, of course, like mixing and dry slots, but without that initial primary coming across, you risk getting nothing but high clouds.I could be wrong, but I feel like we really hit the jackpot with Miller A storms back in the early to mid 90s and haven't really seen one since. They seem to be that rare, but when one happens, and it tracks just right, we can get buried here. But, a lot has to go right for us. I think of the January 1994 storm that tracked so well for the area. Up the Appalachians and no mixing issues at all since we stayed on the cold side of the low the whole time. From what I remember anyway. Haven't really seen a storm like that since.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: I could be wrong, but I feel like we really hit the jackpot with Miller A storms back in the early to mid 90s and haven't really seen one since. They seem to be that rare, but when one happens, and it tracks just right, we can get buried here. But, a lot has to go right for us. I think of the January 1994 storm that tracked so well for the area. Up the Appalachians and no mixing issues at all since we stayed on the cold side of the low the whole time. From what I remember anyway. Haven't really seen a storm like that since. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk The storm that got me was the January 2022 storm. Nearly a perfect track up the Appalachians but we still had a ton of mixing issues. Our best recents storms I believe are all Miller b’s but not sure what December 2020 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Will be interesting to see how the 1/9 and 1/14 threats play out. Morale will be low in here if those both trend the midwest primary lows stronger leading to slop while this Saturday's OH valley low essentially disentegrated leaving us out of the snow it had advertised with the primary and transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, TimB said: 2nd storm is a warning level event on the Canadian, lol. Nevermind that verbatim it has snow falling in some areas with 558 thicknesses. You’re not sucking me in this early this time, jack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Gordo74 said: You’re not sucking me in this early this time, jack. Yeah, it’s pretty well known how we do historically with snow to rain type storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro a little better than 0z. Storm is slightly north and more amped. I'm joy back in yet but still time for some decent trends. Of course us getting 6+ are dead but maybe we squeak out 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Honestly with no primary and this thing not really closing off I don't see anybody getting more than 8 or 9 from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Give me a 2-4 type event and I’ll call it a win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The GFS shows an accurate depiction of how the first storm is going to play out, and the the Euro shows an accurate depiction of how the second storm is going to play out (). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 KPIT has rain and snow mixed saturday…s this storm going to not only be weak, south, but also no old air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: KPIT has rain and snow mixed saturday…s this storm going to not only be weak, south, but also no old air? I hope we get snow flurries and then heavy rain. I'm sick of you guys crying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: I could be wrong, but I feel like we really hit the jackpot with Miller A storms back in the early to mid 90s and haven't really seen one since. They seem to be that rare, but when one happens, and it tracks just right, we can get buried here. But, a lot has to go right for us. I think of the January 1994 storm that tracked so well for the area. Up the Appalachians and no mixing issues at all since we stayed on the cold side of the low the whole time. From what I remember anyway. Haven't really seen a storm like that since. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk For whatever reason, I don't know the answer, those Miller A tracks are seemingly less frequent now. I would assume Miller As are more common in Nino winters because of the stronger forcing from the STJ while Ninas are more northern stream dominant, and we've had a long-term Nina-esque background state that could be a limiting factor. The last really big storm traces back to the Super Nino season in January 2016. Sadly, Pittsburgh metro was largely fringed during that storm, but I know Morgantown got about two feet. Almost all of the storms in recent history have been true Miller Bs or some kind of hybrid that combines an inland primary phasing with an emerging gulf low. 5 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: The upcoming storm the Miller B Primary jump to the coast is still there, albeit the primary is very weak. The whole thing is trending weaker and faster. Sure there will be a narrow stripe of winners but not really the impressive widespread impact storm that was modeled a couple days ago. True Miller A's I agree, they need to be well defined and take an inland track with a mature CCB to transport moisture off the Atlantic over the mountains by the time the reach our latitude. Yeah and that's what I'm seeing with the old primary in the models. They want to key on a single low - the gulf / coastal one - and phase out the other. The energy in the CONUS is scattered all over the place. Compare this weekend's look with essentially four distinct pieces of energy to next week's single bowling ball over Texas. The Canadian looks better because it's a deeper system on the Coast with a bit more energy consolidated. The Euro is between the two. Then there's the NAM which I'm pretty sure is some type of error. 6 hours ago, TimB said: Translation: this is going to be hell for quite some time? Haha, well I wouldn't necessarily go that far, but it's certainly no guarantee we get a hit. The GEFS at range is now showing a full-latitude ridge combining the -NAO and a southeast ridge (Phase 4 of the MJO). That's a very warm look for the entire East (January thaw?). This is paired, naturally, with a -PNA trough that dumps real cold into the West. Eventually, that cold would have to filter east, and it's the character of that evolution that would matter. Does a TPV lobe split and elongate under the -NAO block? That would be good for us. If it just cycles around out west or the -NAO weakens and creates a transient cold shot through the region, we would need a pacific pattern change to ever get a chance or get extremely lucky on timing. That's why I mentioned when the -NAO block dissipates, you go KU hunting. Time it right and you get a TPV lobe into the 50/50 which blocks a storm downstream long enough to intensify but also doesn't suppress it into North Carolina. You also move the western trough towards the middle of the country which presents an opportunity for the various jets to interact, potentially merge, while creating ridging out West and an elongated trough axis in the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gfs might be the worst run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I hope we get snow flurries and then heavy rain. I'm sick of you guys crying. Dude, first I’ve seen you meltdown before. Two, block us. We are mild compared to other forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 FDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 245 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers return tonight with another shot of cold air on Thursday. Still lots of uncertainty regarding impacts from low pressure moving up the northeast coast this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered snow showers return late Wednesday night through Thursday morning -Minor accumulation in the lowlands with up to an inch possible in the higher elevations -Turning dry again Thursday afternoon and colder with a brisk northwest wind ----------------------------------------------------------------- Dry conditions will continue through the afternoon with zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Cold advection this afternoon with a weak shortwave trough crossing the PA/NY border is resulting in a stratocu deck north of PGH while areas to the south get a quick dose of sunshine. Snow showers return to the region tonight as a relatively quick moving front drops south across the region. With minimal moisture to work with and the boundary layer failing to extend into the DGZ, snow accumulations will be minimal. Additionally, behind the front the level beneath the cloud deck dries out quickly and the wind direction is too northerly for much in the way of lake effect or orographic snow showers. Outside of the ridges, and possibly some locations in the I-80 corridor, the latest NBM range of potential snowfall (10th pct-90th pct)for Thursday is well below an inch. Even in the higher elevations the 90th percentile sits at 1 inch. Probabilities for even 0.01-0.05 inches remain low. Strong cold advection behind the front will maintain cloud coverage and keep the diurnal range in temperatures to a minimum. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: -Sunshine returns on Friday. - A weather system could bring impacts to the area over the weekend, however, there remains too much uncertainty to pinpoint any details this far in advance. NWS Pittsburgh just being lazy in their discussion whatever it may be. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/2/2024 at 5:03 PM, Rd9108 said: Gfs 18z and it's gone Fuck this hobby Hopefully once this is sampled we get better trends Three, you made this post just yesterday. I’ve been fairly even keeled all things considered. a rich statement complaining about others crying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: FDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 245 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers return tonight with another shot of cold air on Thursday. Still lots of uncertainty regarding impacts from low pressure moving up the northeast coast this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered snow showers return late Wednesday night through Thursday morning -Minor accumulation in the lowlands with up to an inch possible in the higher elevations -Turning dry again Thursday afternoon and colder with a brisk northwest wind ----------------------------------------------------------------- Dry conditions will continue through the afternoon with zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Cold advection this afternoon with a weak shortwave trough crossing the PA/NY border is resulting in a stratocu deck north of PGH while areas to the south get a quick dose of sunshine. Snow showers return to the region tonight as a relatively quick moving front drops south across the region. With minimal moisture to work with and the boundary layer failing to extend into the DGZ, snow accumulations will be minimal. Additionally, behind the front the level beneath the cloud deck dries out quickly and the wind direction is too northerly for much in the way of lake effect or orographic snow showers. Outside of the ridges, and possibly some locations in the I-80 corridor, the latest NBM range of potential snowfall (10th pct-90th pct)for Thursday is well below an inch. Even in the higher elevations the 90th percentile sits at 1 inch. Probabilities for even 0.01-0.05 inches remain low. Strong cold advection behind the front will maintain cloud coverage and keep the diurnal range in temperatures to a minimum. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: -Sunshine returns on Friday. - A weather system could bring impacts to the area over the weekend, however, there remains too much uncertainty to pinpoint any details this far in advance. NWS Pittsburgh just being lazy in their discussion whatever it may be. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Par for the course. That’s been in their discussion for at least 24 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Three, you made this post just yesterday. I’ve been fairly even keeled all things considered. a rich statement complaining about others crying So I've bitched one time and yet you troll and complain constantly. I honestly don't care if we get any snow at this point. I'll take a winter like last year. It was awesome golfing in January and Febuary. Global Warming ftw!!! I'm gonna continue to spray my spray paint and drive my big diesel truck. In fact how can I speed the process up?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: So I've bitched one time and yet you troll and complain constantly. I honestly don't care if we get any snow at this point. I'll take a winter like last year. It was awesome golfing in January and Febuary. Global Warming ftw!!! I'm gonna continue to spray my spray paint and drive my big diesel truck. In fact how can I speed the process up?!? Lol. Have a goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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