Gordo74 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Easy now. Don't jump yet. The shortwave isn't sampled until probably tomorrow's 12z. The big jumps are most likely not gonna happen since this isn't a big phase bomb. I'm sure we will see minor adjustments both ways the next few runs. It always seems to happen. I'm not jumping, but I do want to call out, looking historically to 2021 when we actually got snow, the Euro nailed pretty much every storm that year with totals whereas the others were busts. EDIT: Still happy with anything that covers the grass for this one. It has been way too long since.... anything and at this point, I'll appreciate anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Easy now. Don't jump yet. The shortwave isn't sampled until probably tomorrow's 12z. The big jumps are most likely not gonna happen since this isn't a big phase bomb. I'm sure we will see minor adjustments both ways the next few runs. It always seems to happen. Lol I’m not. Just stating it was a pretty bad shift away from a good solution. It was though pretty awful given how good 00z looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 To be honest, I almost want to look beyond this event and notice both the Euro and GFS setting up a rather significant -NAO block the following weekend. The ensembles and operationals all have it. Traditionally, when you would weaken a block of this magnitude is when you hunt for the KU, but it's presence looks likely to deliver us the first chance of real cold this winter. Anything that happens underneath is worth watching. It's been a while since we've had this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z icon a big hit for us and given that was a southern outcome previously great sign. one thing that doesn’t change is kpit’s discussions are hortific compared to CTP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z GFS looks good, at least as depicted, but I’d suspect in reality it would include some mixing issues with that track. Canadian has moved back to a workable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, TimB said: 12z GFS looks good, at least as depicted, but I’d suspect in reality it would include some mixing issues with that track. Canadian has moved back to a workable solution. Canadian was like 8 inches verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The GFS reminds me of a large summertime MCS. Looks to go 0-60 Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Since I'm here, I'm watching the 12Z GFS roll out. Looks pretty similar to 6Z thus far. Primary is pushing into southern West Virginia which is starting to get a little close for the mix concerns. The timing of this transfer is relevant. One of the big differences between the 12Z and previous runs is the energy in the Central US is digging further south and we're getting more northern stream interaction (CMC and GFS). This is a fast-moving system so we won't have time to set up for something really big, but the dynamics will determine how potent a bomb we get for 8-12 hours. It's good they are both there, because the 6Z Euro trended away from this sort of environmental interaction. Question is whether Euro follows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, jwilson said: Since I'm here, I'm watching the 12Z GFS roll out. Looks pretty similar to 6Z thus far. Primary is pushing into southern West Virginia which is starting to get a little close for the mix concerns. The timing of this transfer is relevant. One of the big differences between the 12Z and previous runs is the energy in the Central US is digging further south and we're getting more northern stream interaction (CMC and GFS). This is a fast-moving system so we won't have time to set up for something really big, but the dynamics will determine how potent a bomb we get for 8-12 hours. It's good they are both there, because the 6Z Euro trended away from this sort of environmental interaction. Question is whether Euro follows. 12z GFS and CMC are fairly close in the depiction, both as you said get the primary into WV now vs GFS at 00z was further South. A lot of nuances on where the best place for the transfer to happen is, but that's getting to close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 38 minutes ago, jwilson said: To be honest, I almost want to look beyond this event and notice both the Euro and GFS setting up a rather significant -NAO block the following weekend. The ensembles and operationals all have it. Traditionally, when you would weaken a block of this magnitude is when you hunt for the KU, but it's presence looks likely to deliver us the first chance of real cold this winter. Anything that happens underneath is worth watching. It's been a while since we've had this setup. You can even see hints of all three jets at play, and with that block if you got some phased up storm (dare I say Tripple Phaser lol) there's a good bet it gets forced to go under the block. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GEFS took a step back with QPF and the ensemble mean is an advisory level event even in the jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This storm has really sped up on the models the last 36-48 hours. I was originally thinking when they flexed the steelers to 430 Sat the game would be over before the storm got cranking. We're looking at a mostly saturday show now. 12z looks good so far fingers crossed while waiting on EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, dj3 said: This storm has really sped up on the models the last 36-48 hours. I was originally thinking when they flexed the steelers to 430 Sat the game would be over before the storm got cranking. We're looking at a mostly saturday show now. 12z looks good so far fingers crossed while waiting on EURO Oh right, lord help us if this thing busts as we’re watching the Steelers get eliminated from playoff contention by a bunch of backups. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Big change on the Canadian from 12 hours ago.. if you take anything out of that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, TimB said: Oh right, lord help us if this thing busts as we’re watching the Steelers get eliminated from playoff contention by a bunch of backups. That only happens if Kenny starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Storm + game will be a fun day. The KC playoff loss in ‘21 was during a storm. (the 9” storm that isn’t remembered too fondly since it came in two parts, and a few areas fell short) Hoping this sets up to be a more positive day! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 36 minutes ago, TimB said: Oh right, lord help us if this thing busts as we’re watching the Steelers get eliminated from playoff contention by a bunch of backups. 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: That only happens if Kenny starts If not for mitch being #2, Mason probably wins at least 1/3 vs Arizona, Pats, and Indy and we would already be in at this point. I don't love our chances if it is a slop game in Baltimore with their rushing attack, even if it is backups. Besides the Steelers, I'd prefer a saturday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Storm + game will be a fun day. The KC playoff loss in ‘21 was during a storm. (the 9” storm that isn’t remembered too fondly since it came in two parts, and a few areas fell short) Hoping this sets up to be a more positive day! It would sure be a kick in the teeth if the Steelers got their asses kicked as we watched the snow pile up on TV in Baltimore while seeing very little out the windows. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Ideally we see a good snowfall and we get to see a good snow game on tv that ends in a win. But this is Pittsburgh and these kinds of things are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Oddly, the cutter still isn’t looking terrible on the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: 12z icon a big hit for us and given that was a southern outcome previously great sign. one thing that doesn’t change is kpit’s discussions are hortific compared to CTP. Look dude, at this time, the main takeaway message is to simply keep an eye on the forecast for the weekend and early next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looking even better than before. NWS is fairly confident at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, north pgh said: Still not bad. Down across the board for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, north pgh said: That thing is absolutely booking it, which really cuts totals back. Still, I’d take a high end advisory like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, TimB said: That thing is absolutely booking it, which really cuts totals back. Still, I’d take a high end advisory like that. Yes I think this is more like the precip totals. Storm is a fast mover. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro obviously shows less precip overall. Let's see if this keeps trending this way or if we are just getting to a more realistic depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro obviously shows less precip overall. Let's see if this keeps trending this way or if we are just getting to a more realistic depiction. I’ll take 6 hours of near inch per hour snow over a 12 hour light 4-6 event. Euro books it which reduces qpf but I’d imagine you’d see some really heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yep the EPS sees the speed increase as well. So basically we need this to slow down a little if we wanna maximize precip. Clearly you can see between 0z and 12z the precip totals were cut in nearly half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Fwiw Bernie posted a video about the storm and thinks we are in the risk for 6+. Now he said that if the energy is weaker than most areas will be lucky to see more than a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Faster flow, less spacing, and a weaker wave overall. This was a much slower moving system with long duration potential not that long ago. From this To this.. Maybe the interaction with the wave behind it trends less and our main shortwave can amp back up in future runs. If not nothing wrong with a moderate event to get us on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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