TheClimateChanger Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Nice surprise here. A little less than an inch. Very picturesque with the snow clinging to all surfaces, except paved surfaces which are just wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 EPS bumped up our chance of 4”+ over 24 hours to 41% for the 7th event. That seems pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12z so far seems to have taken a jump SE. Need to pull this thing back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Overall looks like less northern stream energy phasing in. If that continues its going to slide off the SE coast. Plenty of time to see where this goes on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 All in all I’d rather it be south for now than showing us on the mix line, but it sure seems like our two scenarios here are us being close to mixing or fringed to the south it also seems like te inevitable push north never happens in a scenario showing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I will say it’s nice to have something to look at though. I’m not sure last year we had anything to look at like this in this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/major-winter-storm-brewing-with-snow-ice-and-rain-to-blast-northeast/1608380 Accuweather talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Well you knew it was gonna happen. The models trended. Shouldn't be a surprise and there's obviously still time left for this to go one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Rd9108 said: Well you knew it was gonna happen. The models trended. Shouldn't be a surprise and there's obviously still time left for this to go one way or another. This isn’t uncommon or unexpected. I can’t imagine there was ever a storm where the models stayed exactly the same for over a week. Plenty of time for better trends. No reason not to still be hopeful, unless your TimB. He stays negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 We have not had a single storm that was trackable this winter so far. I will gladly take the last 24-36 hours where there is actually something to look at regardless of what we end up with. Anything beats weeks and weeks of pattern talk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Everybody in PA eats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Everybody in PA eats Wonder how this will fail? I'm sure we'll hear soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Wonder how this will fail? I'm sure we'll hear soon. I’d certainly be happy with that solution, or even an advisory level event. It’s the fact that 1-3” type events (or less) are still very much on the table that is frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 There's a signal for something this weekend, which is about the best we've done in quite a while. Plus with the weekend rule in effect, that's an additional +25% to confidence scores. I do prefer this one south to start - at longer leads, that is. We know that they generally bump north gradually as the T-0 clock closes. If the starting point is us getting bullseye'd, mixed, or some kind of southern fringe solution, chances are much higher we'd lose it altogether. If we're still on the northern fringe at say 48 hours, then you start to get worried about suppression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 EPS alittle east but still some good hits. Honestly if out east needs 8-12 for us to see 4-6 then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: EPS alittle east but still some good hits. Honestly if out east needs 8-12 for us to see 4-6 then so be it. Usually how it is anyway. They get bigger overall storms, just less instances of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Newest GFS looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Newest GFS looked pretty good. We don’t need to jackpot if we can just get a solution like that, not suppressed to hell. Solid low end warning event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looking good still, and a little surprising for a time period that is showing a potential cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS looked fantastic at 0z. Canadian was an epic disaster. Hopefully some middle ground solution wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 32 minutes ago, TimB said: GFS looked fantastic at 0z. Canadian was an epic disaster. Hopefully some middle ground solution wins out. Probably best run yet I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Half of the 30 GEFS members show a 6"+ storm for Pittsburgh metro or are very close to it. Perhaps 10 certain and then a few that are inexact given the resolution. That's not quite what I'd consider "honking," but it's still quite good at this range. A handful more show a fringe event (borderline minor to moderate or a fringe special). Five show what's basically a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We are at the point with the models that storms won’t just vanish. Hopefully things trend or stay in the right spot for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 hours ago, jwilson said: Half of the 30 GEFS members show a 6"+ storm for Pittsburgh metro or are very close to it. Perhaps 10 certain and then a few that are inexact given the resolution. That's not quite what I'd consider "honking," but it's still quite good at this range. A handful more show a fringe event (borderline minor to moderate or a fringe special). Five show what's basically a non-event. Generally the look with the primary not making it into OH and now rather into Kentucky is much better for our chances. At least right now the warm tongue is held at bay but we also avoid the dryslot that tends to setup between the two lows during the transfer. It's a fairly narrow stripe for victory in the grand scheme of things and there is still enough uncertainty with evolution that this could go haywire for us, but its been somewhat refreshing to see generally the same look on both the GFS and Euro for a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Nice to not just be relying on one model. NAM coming into range will be interesting. (If it sucks, we can say throw it aht it’s just the 84 hr NAM. If it’s good, it’s one more on board ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0z GEFS ensemble mean had 14” of snow in our area over the entire run. Of course, the operational GFS is also going crazy with snow amounts on our area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Don’t look at the 6z euro ensembles. Basically shuts us out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The 6z GFS mid and upper level set up is not your classic look, but it seems to work with the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 33 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Don’t look at the 6z euro ensembles. Basically shuts us out Easy now. Don't jump yet. The shortwave isn't sampled until probably tomorrow's 12z. The big jumps are most likely not gonna happen since this isn't a big phase bomb. I'm sure we will see minor adjustments both ways the next few runs. It always seems to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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