RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: I need some alone time Need a 25-50 mile jog North to get everyone in the goods. Doable with 24hr lead time, fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 HRRR improved again at 0z. Now up to a 2-3” type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAM looked fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Im trying to catch up, but I like the trends. Like @Mailman said, clippers tend to overachieve. With a good trend and keeping that in mind, I’m feeling positive about it right now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAM is pretty solid even the 3k is 4ish. I'm personally thinking they put their range at 2-3. Hopefully we can get an overachiever 4-5 in this crap winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 03Z RAP depiction is in the north camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Winter weather advisory for 2-4”. Let’s just get that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’m probably a touch north for this, but thinking there are some sweet spots (4”+) in the south hills or Westmoreland county. Basically far enough north to catch some better ratios, but far enough south to catch higher precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NWS pretty bullish on their call. There is going to be a narrow band of winners somewhere between Allegheny and Morgantown. Problem is if you're outside that maxima band, you're probably dealing with subsidence and bad dendrite growth. Pretty much all the latest mesos keep that band in Greene and Washington counties. It will be interesting to nowcast that and see where it falls. I thought the soundings weren't that great looking into Allegheny even yesterday in terms of maximizing potential, but I don't know how reliable those are from the mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 HRRR Weenie band 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Where do I sign for the 12z HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, jwilson said: NWS pretty bullish on their call. There is going to be a narrow band of winners somewhere between Allegheny and Morgantown. Problem is if you're outside that maxima band, you're probably dealing with subsidence and bad dendrite growth. Pretty much all the latest mesos keep that band in Greene and Washington counties. It will be interesting to nowcast that and see where it falls. I thought the soundings weren't that great looking into Allegheny even yesterday in terms of maximizing potential, but I don't know how reliable those are from the mesos. Yeah that's my fear honestly. We dealt with that with the system in January already so was hoping to avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Weenie band getting thicker. I still think the best energy is probably south of this depiction locally, but will be an interesting nowcast this evening. Westmoreland pounded on the run.p 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, jwilson said: NWS pretty bullish on their call. There is going to be a narrow band of winners somewhere between Allegheny and Morgantown. Problem is if you're outside that maxima band, you're probably dealing with subsidence and bad dendrite growth. Pretty much all the latest mesos keep that band in Greene and Washington counties. It will be interesting to nowcast that and see where it falls. I thought the soundings weren't that great looking into Allegheny even yesterday in terms of maximizing potential, but I don't know how reliable those are from the mesos. Thats how the storm earlier this year panned out too. It does seem like it bumped north a bit from yesterday, but its still not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Models (and now radar) have shown this northern tongue of sorts that looks to get the precip going sooner. Will be interesting to see where this sets up, as it could help with some of the totals along the northern side of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Need a bump north or stay put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’m liking the way this is trending. Advisory level event on most to all guidance at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'm no slut, 5 would satisfy me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hrdps or whatever it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This has really trended well for us. I think the forecast just a couple days ago was saying less than an inch. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 last few runs of the HRRR have backed off quite a bit. 12z had a general 3-6 county wide with some spikes but now maxes out at 4, thought it is probably way more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: last few runs of the HRRR have backed off quite a bit. 12z had a general 3-6 county wide with some spikes but now maxes out at 4, thought it is probably way more realistic I would accept a solution that settles somewhere around the 3” that the NWS is calling for. I’d love 4-6, but that seems like an unrealistic expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 HRRR hasn't been great honestly but I think the 2-4 call is fine. Maybe we get lucky and see some good banding set up. Let's just hit advisory criteria so we can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: HRRR hasn't been great honestly but I think the 2-4 call is fine. Maybe we get lucky and see some good banding set up. Let's just hit advisory criteria so we can't complain. I think general 2-4 looks good, with maybe a stripe of 5 if the front end piece is real and that higher end band hit the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro looks fine fwiw. Sucks I have to work tomorrow so I'll probably have to wake up and shovel before I leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 One final map from our red tag friend @MAG5035 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Remember that this snow is mostly going to fall over a 6 hour or so period so to even get 2-4 inches it will snow at least 1/2 inch an hour which is pretty good rates. Even an inch an hour in some cases. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We’re leaving for Cancun at 6 AM Tomorrow morning. Normally I’d want the snow, but I hope this one is a bust….Sorry folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 34 minutes ago, north pgh said: Remember that this snow is mostly going to fall over a 6 hour or so period so to even get 2-4 inches it will snow at least 1/2 inch an hour which is pretty good rates. Even an inch an hour in some cases. Big fan of rates and daytime. Daytime is definitely out, but at least it looks like it won’t be in the middle of the night. I think south of the city still looks really good. I’m a little worried we northern people might not quite get the heavy stuff, but we’ll see. The 2:00 advisory update now advertising “3-5 with locally higher along route 70” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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