Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Congrats Morgantown I guess… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I’ll take 2+ just give me some white stuff! (Snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 28 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 3k 12k Snow weenie in me said throw out 12z 3k, now we take and throw out the18z 12k lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 36 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Congrats Morgantown I guess… Wouldnt be surprised if this misses south after we freaked out about it being north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Unusual for the 3k to be more, but for now it’s a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z GFS trended back to decent. 3 hours of good snow to get us a low end advisory type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 In classic Pittsburgh fashion the advisories are spreading from New Mexico up the Ohio River to Cincinnati, skips us and then starts again to the east. Just classic, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS another a tick better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Not sure how much stock anyone puts into the ICON, but improvement to 2-3” at 18z after it had been very consistent in less than an inch for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 21z RAP is still a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I haven’t been posting on purpose, mainly because I think if we get anything from this it’s a bonus. Looks like we could get half a foot or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It would be pretty typical though if somehow this slid south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 22 minutes ago, Ahoff said: In classic Pittsburgh fashion the advisories are spreading from New Mexico up the Ohio River to Cincinnati, skips us and then starts again to the east. Just classic, lol. Outside of lake enhancement in NW flow, we have upper south/lower midwest snow climo but northeast advisory/warning criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 minutes ago, TimB said: Outside of lake enhancement in NW flow, we have upper south/lower midwest snow climo but northeast advisory/warning criteria. The average snow here is substantially more, but the big storm frequency is more than places to the south and west. It isn’t just the lake enhancement. Some of you guys are always looking to the ridges, the snow belt, and New England and saying woe is us. But we get substantially more synomptic snow than places to the south and places at this latitude to the west. So the criteria is appropriate even if the last 2 years have sucked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 22 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: The average snow here is substantially more, but the big storm frequency is more than places to the south and west. It isn’t just the lake enhancement. Some of you guys are always looking to the ridges, the snow belt, and New England and saying woe is us. But we get substantially more synomptic snow than places to the south and places at this latitude to the west. So the criteria is appropriate even if the last 2 years have sucked. This is true. When I noted we haven’t had a 12” calendar day since 1994, I was playing around on xMacis with other locations, and Dayton has only ever had one day with 12” or more (and only barely) in 1978. I think warning criteria might be 4” there, but they are even worse for big storm climatology. Same deal with Columbus where I think warning criteria is the same as Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z GEFS is at a mean of 6.3” for the city, albeit assuming 10-1 ratio (which is probably too high). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The latest convergence we see is actually between the Euro, Canadian, and Ukie with a lower northern component (almost a non-event now) and more of an eastern component, which probably makes more sense if you think about. Consider the southern solutions from before were modeled that way because of stronger and faster confluence coming out of the NS. This is acting as a kicker and preventing much deepening or negative-tilt prior to the storm advancing out to sea. That likely puts the better CCB/deformation banding to areas east of us. I basically ignored the idea that the CMC and Ukie could be right and figured the Euro and GFS combined were a safer duo. That's a whoopsie, and if the former score a coup on this storm, I think I'm done predicting or analyzing anything this winter. Considering how much things have changed in 24 hours, it's difficult to say anything is finalized now, but there appears to be a bit more agreement as compared to 12Z yesterday. We're still dealing with a marginal airmass and bad surface thermals. This is evidenced by the fact that we have an ideal vort pass on all three levels (south of us), but we're still struggling to generate snowfall. If the storm is kicked east quicker, that part aligns, because the deepening which generates the cold air we need occurs out of our zone. The GFS is sort of on its own again, but it jumped south significantly between 12Z and 18Z. Oil City went from 15" to 3" in one run. That could very well mean it is beginning to fall in line with the other guidance. Another 24 hours will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: This is true. When I noted we haven’t had a 12” calendar day since 1994, I was playing around on xMacis with other locations, and Dayton has only ever had one day with 12” or more (and only barely) in 1978. I think warning criteria might be 4” there, but they are even worse for big storm climatology. Same deal with Columbus where I think warning criteria is the same as Pittsburgh. Calendar day is misleading. The 2 15”+ storms after 94 straddled calendar days. 2.5 and 2.6 of 2010 got 10+” each day I think. Also, most of us got real close to a foot 12.20 during the same day. I also got 13” in 12.03 (living in Penn Hills) during a single calendar day. Official total fell short, but eastern AGC got walloped in about 8 hours. We don’t always knock those out of the park, but they get a lot leaner as you head southwest down the Ohio river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Calendar day is misleading. The 2 15”+ storms in that period straddled calendar days. 2.5 and 2.6 of 2010 got 10+” each day I think. Also, most of us got real close to a foot 12.20 during the same day. I also got 13” in 12.03 (living in Penn Hills) during a single calendar day. Official total fell short, but eastern AGC got walloped in about 8 hours. We don’t always knock those out of the park, but they get a lot leaner as you head southwest down the Ohio river. Calendar day in and of itself can be misleading, but comparing calendar day records at one location vs another will give you a good idea of which location has better storm climo, which I think is what he was going for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 hours ago, TimB said: Probably won’t even have to shovel. Thank you “Mr. Positive”! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, TimB said: Calendar day in and of itself can be misleading, but comparing calendar day records at one location vs another will give you a good idea of which location has better storm climo, which I think is what he was going for. Yes, this is what I was getting at it. Dayton only has 5 periods with two day totals of a foot or more dating back to the 19th century (ignoring the double counting of the 1978 blizzard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Lol this is gonna miss south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol this is gonna miss south Euro isn’t necessarily south like the NAM - it’s just a touch too warm in changing over the intial slug of moisture. It’s still close to being decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Euro isn’t necessarily south like the NAM - it’s just a touch too warm in changing over the intial slug of moisture. It’s still close to being decent. Ahh OK I just peeped the snow map during the commercials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 0z HRRR is a buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, TimB said: 0z HRRR is a buzzkill. I'm glad I work less accidents to deal. Enjoy your rain bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 hours ago, TimB said: Even with all that radiational cooling we’re still sitting at +13.2 month to date. Just behind 1925 (at a different observing site) for warmest first 10 days of Feb ever. Well, I always get pushback when I use mean temperatures and the response is always high temperatures are more important. Applying that logic fairly, it was easily the warmest first 10 days of February: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 31 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm glad I work less accidents to deal. Enjoy your rain bud. Yep. Looking like we’re losing the NAM too. Entire precip shield misses us SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, TimB said: Yep. Looking like we’re losing the NAM too. Entire precip shield misses us SE. Lmao went from worrying about this fringing us to the north to fringing us to the south. I'm sure some guidance will tease us but this whole storm evolution has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, TimB said: Yep. Looking like we’re losing the NAM too. Entire precip shield misses us SE. Boy I was making fun of the Canadian for being so far east but it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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