Gordo74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 28 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: All of this negativity is making me not even wanna storm chase anymore. Agreed - that's why I blocked TimB and KPitSnow a long time ago and the thread is much more factual and weather discussion rather than whining and complaining. Instead of doom and gloom, it is excitment and fun speculation rather than temper tantrums and poopy pants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Lower criteria to the Southwest That was my thought too. Higher elevations will get up slope and look to have higher qpf so that probably boosts confidence in those regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 35 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: All of this negativity is making me not even wanna storm chase anymore. You know what dude, shut up. One, you have been known to be just as negative as anyone here. Two, you spend more time complaining about negativity and people complaining than actually posting about events. like I don’t even know where this post came from today? Everyone is simply stating this looks like a 2-3 type event which is dissapointing given that this was supposed to be our period for a larger threat. It’s kind of factual. There isn’t anything on here today anyone is saying that is wrong. I am honestly sick of the near constant attacks and trolling from you and a couple others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 In all honesty, I am thinking that the NWS is being conservative with the 2" call. The track of the storm looks good. Lets hope is gains a little more strength and maybe we squeeze a 4-6" surprise out of this. It is sad that I am hoping for a 4" storm, but that is where we are at...We will get there eventuallyIt's funny, earlier my NWS forecast actually had amounts in it totaling 4 to 8 inches for the event. They've since taken that out of the forecast probably realizing they jumped the gun with the amounts. I thought it seemed kinda high. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 25 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I don’t know if this warrants an advisory even. I mean 2-4 inches but over more than a 24 hour period lol. No it doesn’t warrant an advisory. It’s a long duration event that might meet advisory criteria over 36-48 hours. That said, 3-4 inches of snow on snow would be satisfactory. But if it’s 1-2 inches, why even bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 NWS is back to 3.7” for Friday, so they adjusted way up. Everyone chill. We’re in this. We know KPIT is conservative with their calls always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Bernie’s video has PITT all within a 3-6” range! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 More with ratios but NAM is bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The Joe Denardo rule. This is why you "Don't come out with accumulations numbers until 48 hours before the event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: More with ratios but NAM is bone dry NAM initialization looked bad. Not sure what it is doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 27 minutes ago, Mailman said: this is a great sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: NAM initialization looked bad. Not sure what it is doing Yeah I didn't look into too much. Other guidance looks better including the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: More with ratios but NAM is bone dry Looks like a bunch of nonsense. I love how these high resolution models try to account for geographic features but fail miserably. The Ohio River valley is not a 20-mile wide deep depression in the earth. Many of those areas are 1200-1300' in elevation! I wouldn't even expect such a big elevation difference in this setup when it's going to be way below freezing. Sure the hilltops will probably ring out a bit more moisture, but that's an absurd depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I guess somebody in the Shaler facebook group may know something. My brother just texted me asking if we are about to get a bunch of snow. Somebody in that group said 8-12 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: Looks like a bunch of nonsense. I love how these high resolution models try to account for geographic features but fail miserably. The Ohio River valley is not a 20-mile wide deep depression in the earth. Many of those areas are 1200-1300' in elevation! I wouldn't even expect such a big elevation difference in this setup when it's going to be way below freezing. Sure the hilltops will probably ring out a bit more moisture, but that's an absurd depiction. Not to mention, the National Blend of Models literally had all of southwest PA in the 100% chance of 1"+, so I'm thinking this out to lunch. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I guess somebody in the Shaler facebook group may know something. My brother just texted me asking if we are about to get a bunch of snow. Somebody in that group said 8-12 lol. I'm thinking somewhere in between the NAM 3k and the Shaler Facebook group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Mesos trending to strengthen the primary and squash the secondary. If we wanted a maxima result, we'd want the secondary to develop, tuck, and throw the CCB back across us. As it is now, it looks more like a traditional clipper. Makes sense given the lateral flow. The NBM juiced our totals over the last run to almost 4" average (with >2" at high probably of 91%), up from the 2.7" the previous run. Next update is 19 UTC so worth watching which way that moves considering the latest mesos. A disagreement, of sorts? SREF mean is at 2.7" (ironically) and GEFS average is irrelevant, unfortunately, because the computer is down. Last plumes were from 0Z 1/16. I just realized as I was typing this because they were oddly high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Forecasted high here was 22 I think, only made it to 17.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 hours ago, Rd9108 said: I'm riding with with Bernie This guy is wrong most of the time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, Mailman said: Let's see this go up a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Great deep winter feel outside today. The wind chill was a bit brutal at times, but still better than the grey damp drizzle we’ve had most of the winter. A solid 2-4 region wide seems reasonable for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 As long as the totals hold, I imagine we'll get an advisory hoisted tomorrow sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 As long as the totals hold, I imagine we'll get an advisory hoisted tomorrow sometime.Need an advisory and my kids school to call a fid day then we are heading to ski on Friday. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 NAM not really great fwiw. Honestly I thought it would be better at the surface but it just wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 SREF solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 This has certainly improved from yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: This has certainly improved from yesterday... Looks like they upped totals over night a little bit too, probably includes some of the lake enhanced stuff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WWA and totals in the 4-6” range. We’re doing ok with this one so far. The WWA stretch from the west and south and point directly at us. That looks like our storm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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