Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

[joecon]

Just finished snow blowing the driveway. We got 2 3/4” inches of snow here in McCandless Township 

[jwilson]

In terms of high-end potential, I don't love the setup for the next system.  This was the original window to go KU hunting, but we don't quite have the ingredients in place for one anymore.

Here's one example as to why:

This shot from the Euro generally depicts the separation of the northern and southern jets.  We can see the orientation of the NS (northern stream) basically shunting the SS (southern stream), scraping across the northern Gulf.

 

Here we can see the individual pieces of energy on the GFS.  The main bits are south of St. Louis and then back around Eastern Wyoming.  That NS/western piece is acting more as a kicker to the SS/eastern piece (which isn't technically part of the SS I suppose, but I'm calling it that for the sake of this discussion).  Once again, we aren't timing it right.

You can also see the relatively flat, suppressive flow across the East Coast.  Basically, that means there's no room for a system to dig and advance north/northeast up the Eastern Seaboard.  Anything that develops in the Atlantic gets pushed due East and out of the way.

We have a nearby 50/50 that's not in a totally terrible place, but the lack of a timed phase ruin any potential block.  The Western ridge axis is pretty well located, but we can see there's no real trough development out East.  In this case, we'd probably prefer a steeper ridge.

 

The Canadian looks a little different, a little more amped because the spacing between the 50/50 area low and the TPV lobe allows for heights to raise slightly in the East and a slightly steeper ridge out west.  This slows down the SS vort, which allows the NS energy to catch up and they begin an earlier phase, furthering allow a bit more northward advancement up the coast.  The Canadian gives a more classic "tucked low" look while the other models sort of wash it out due to the flat flow.  The Canadian additionally closes off the 700 and 850mb lows not too far southeast of Nantucket.  Neither the GFS nor the Euro ever close these off totally.

There's also a slight difference between the Euro and GFS in that the Euro closes off the H500 low about 9 hours earlier than the GFS.  It's a slight difference in speed and strength.  The coastal development itself is ultimately more relevant for the Coastal plain in this case.

We aren't all that far out from this event so I question exactly how much can change.  However, without delving too deep into the physics, I suppose it's still technically possible we could either speed up the NS energy, slow down the SS energy, raise the Western ridge a bit more north/make it steeper, and/or create some more jet involvement and phase the storm earlier.  Anything like that would lead to a potentially bigger outcome.

[Rd9108]

Definitely have a "chance" at something bigger than today. Of course things can go either direction.

That's around .5 liquid with ratios that could be a good thump. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Ahoff]

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Good start.  They were pretty good on the first call for today.

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Good start.  They were pretty good on the first call for today.

Yeah they were. Guess we gotta see if we get positive trends but I'll take 3-5. 

[TimB]

Low end amount of 2” in Pittsburgh is pretty solid.

[blackngoldrules]

Hug the Canadian!

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[MikeB_01]

.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

8 hours ago, blackngoldrules said:

Hug the Canadian!

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 

 Oh Canada! Our home and native land! True patriot love in all thy sons command. With glowing hearts we see thee rise,. The True North strong and free! 

Still looking like an advisory level event could be on the table, if things break right *maybe* low end warning. Need to see how things evolve as we get into the short term. Saturday looking like a deep winter day for sure, fresh snow pack, re-enforced cold shot, and hints at some lake bands / NW flow snow showers.

I've been able to get outside for some quality winter fun with the dogs and kids the last three days in some form or another. The pattern may not deliver a big dog storm like some are looking for but assuming Friday works out this gets an A+ in my book. Certainly been refreshing to track and see real snow and get outside vs looking at day 14 ENS runs for hints of a workable winter pattern returning which seems like all we did last year, anyways there will be plenty of time for that next week,  but at least by then confidence should be high on winters return late month.

[TimB]

NWS has dialed us back to some stupid little sub-advisory level 2.4” event, which is actually the same as what we got yesterday. Their discussion repeats the same old stupid little mantra of “advisories are likely in the ridges” that has pretty much defined the last two years. Not ideal, but would get us into the double digits for the season.

[Ahoff]

16 minutes ago, TimB said:

NWS has dialed us back to some stupid little sub-advisory level 2.4” event, which is actually the same as what we got yesterday. Their discussion repeats the same old stupid little mantra of “advisories are likely in the ridges” that has pretty much defined the last two years. Not ideal, but would get us into the double digits for the season.

They started at 2.4” for yesterday and dialed back and we ended up there.  They’ll continue to adjust.

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, TimB said:

NWS has dialed us back to some stupid little sub-advisory level 2.4” event, which is actually the same as what we got yesterday. Their discussion repeats the same old stupid little mantra of “advisories are likely in the ridges” that has pretty much defined the last two years. Not ideal, but would get us into the double digits for the season.

The earlier map also started at 1 am Thursday, not 1 am Friday. I think they were expecting a bit more snow on Thursday. Now it looks like a half inch at best.

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The earlier map also started at 1 am Thursday, not 1 am Friday. I think they were expecting a bit more snow on Thursday. Now it looks like a half inch at best.

Oh right, so it was never an advisory event in the NWS’ eyes. It was two separate events totaling 3.some inches.

[Rd9108]

I'm riding with with Bernie

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Oh right, so it was never an advisory event in the NWS’ eyes. It was two separate events totaling 3.some inches.

Meanwhile, Buffalo got that in just the last hour.

METAR KBUF 171354Z 22008KT 1/16SM +SN VV003 M13/M14 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP137 SNINCR 3/16 P0008 T11281144 RVRNO $

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Not much to add, generally looking between .2 and .3 total qpf. Seems like some of the higher guidance has come down more in line in that range now too . I'll dive in more tomorrow 12z when we are into the short term models. Thinking I probably jumped the gun earlier throwing the idea of warning criteria anywhere outside of the mountains though. I think advisory is still on the table.

[Rd9108]

44 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Not much to add, generally looking between .2 and .3 total qpf. Seems like some of the higher guidance has come down more in line in that range now too . I'll dive in more tomorrow 12z when we are into the short term models. Thinking I probably jumped the gun earlier throwing the idea of warning criteria anywhere outside of the mountains though. I think advisory is still on the table.

Yeah still time for some positive trends but I think 3 or 4 is the max for this one. I thought we could get a warning too but still gonna have to wait it seems. 

[TimB]

Running out of time for an actual good event. If we come back from next week’s thaw quickly, there’s 5, maybe 6 weeks left.
 

It’s sad that our bar for satisfactory at this point is set at advisory level snowfalls or even less, but we really could go another winter without one.

[TheClimateChanger]

8 minutes ago, TimB said:

Running out of time for an actual good event. If we come back from next week’s thaw quickly, there’s 5, maybe 6 weeks left.
 

It’s sad that our bar for satisfactory at this point is set at advisory level snowfalls or even less, but we really could go another winter without one.

Disappointing Arctic airmass, as well. Hyped up as the second coming of the Polar Vortex, and all we could manage was 7 above. 

Here are the 3 coldest low temperatures, and the 3 coldest high temperatures at PIT for today's date. I mean... the 21 years between 1977 & 1997 [inclusive], there were 3 times the high temperature was colder than today's low. 

Lows

1/17

-18 in 1982

-17 in 1977

-10 in 2009

Highs

1/17

-3 in 1982

-2 in 1977

6 in 1997

[TimB]

It’s been the same old story over and over again for every single snow event that’s happened the past two winters. Today’s NWS discussion:

- Snow chances increase on Thursday, but the main focus for
  widespread accumulations will be Thursday night and Friday.
  Snow accumulation could exceed criteria for headlines, but
  current probabilities are pointing to the highest threat in
  the ridges.

[MikeB_01]

15 minutes ago, TimB said:

It’s been the same old story over and over again for every single snow event that’s happened the past two winters. Today’s NWS discussion:

- Snow chances increase on Thursday, but the main focus for
  widespread accumulations will be Thursday night and Friday.
  Snow accumulation could exceed criteria for headlines, but
  current probabilities are pointing to the highest threat in
  the ridges.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

34 minutes ago, TimB said:

It’s been the same old story over and over again for every single snow event that’s happened the past two winters. Today’s NWS discussion:

- Snow chances increase on Thursday, but the main focus for
  widespread accumulations will be Thursday night and Friday.
  Snow accumulation could exceed criteria for headlines, but
  current probabilities are pointing to the highest threat in
  the ridges.

Is this the correct advisory count for Allegheny County over the past 365 days? If so, that's pretty sad since two of them are for light glazes of ice.

[TheClimateChanger]

Interestingly, the NWS in Charleston is strategically lining up winter storm watches all along the southern boundary with Pittsburgh's CWA. Yet PBZ isn't even sure if advisories will be warranted. 

Other neighboring offices are also going with watches in the higher terrain, and NWS CLE has posted watches in north central Ohio where lake enhancement can lead to more than 6 inches.

[MikeB_01]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interestingly, the NWS in Charleston is strategically lining up winter storm watches all along the southern boundary with Pittsburgh's CWA. Yet PBZ isn't even sure if advisories will be warranted. 

Other neighboring offices are also going with watches in the higher terrain, and NWS CLE has posted watches in north central Ohio where lake enhancement can lead to more than 6 inches.

one of the biggest problems with the NWS is lack of communication with other offices.

[Rd9108]

All of this negativity is making me not even wanna storm chase anymore. 

[MikeB_01]

6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

All of this negativity is making me not even wanna storm chase anymore. 

In all honesty, I am thinking that the NWS is being conservative with the 2" call. The track of the storm looks good. Lets hope is gains a little more strength and maybe we squeeze a 4-6" surprise out of this. 

 

It is sad that I am hoping for a 4" storm, but that is where we are at...We will get there eventually

[Burghblizz]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interestingly, the NWS in Charleston is strategically lining up winter storm watches all along the southern boundary with Pittsburgh's CWA. Yet PBZ isn't even sure if advisories will be warranted. 

Other neighboring offices are also going with watches in the higher terrain, and NWS CLE has posted watches in north central Ohio where lake enhancement can lead to more than 6 inches.

Lower criteria to the Southwest

[KPITSnow]

I don’t know if this warrants an advisory even. I mean 2-4 inches but over more than a 24 hour period lol. 

[KPITSnow]

And hopefully this can squeeze something more out, but given how much this timeframe had been hyped up over the last few weeks for a chance at a big storm, to get a 1.5 inch, 3 inch, and now maybe a 4 inch event really is kind of a letdown.