jwilson Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 It's ironic that the GFS and Euro have completely flipped positions. The Euro went from amped Appalachian spine runner to suppressed, and the GFS went from suppressed to phaser coastal. The Canadian is much closer to the GFS. The Euro hangs back this fairly large piece of energy into southern B.C. It eventually becomes the dominant piece of energy but stays lagged behind the SS and doesn't even drop down. It rotates around the TPV in the NS and washes out before popping much later. Going back, it looks it's because the GFS raises heights in that NW Canada area and cleans out an LP, some of which disappears, some phases into a low over Russia. The Canadian and Euro both hold a piece of that energy and drop it into NA and strengthen it. The GFS has continually weakened that piece. The Canadian just did weaken it significantly between 0Z and 12Z. The Euro has, unsurprisingly, strengthened it. This could be the key cog in the entire mechanism. How that piece of energy resolves, if it exists at all, etc. We'll have to see once the cutter completes its cycle this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z is slightly better than 12z. Still time for improvements. Central PA gets smoked with a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 7” is pretty good. If that were the outcome, I don’t think we’d have too many complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 As of now the Euro is the only bad model for us for Tuesday. I think we are in a good spot now. Things will change this weekend. We know it could go either way but I'd rather have more models in our favor now than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Ahoff said: 7” is pretty good. If that were the outcome, I don’t think we’d have too many complaints. Agreed and this is a cold storm so I doubt 10-1 would be the ratio probably a little higher. Interestingly enough it started to phase with the northern energy close to Maine. Gotta keep an eye out on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I feel like maybe the GFS handled the last storm better than the others, so maybe some hope for early next week? Would like to see the Euro catch on to it as well then maybe it'll be game on. Still time yet like everyone is saying. It'll be interesting to see the upcoming trends on this one.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: I feel like maybe the GFS handled the last storm better than the others, so maybe some hope for early next week? Would like to see the Euro catch on to it as well then maybe it'll be game on. Still time yet like everyone is saying. It'll be interesting to see the upcoming trends on this one. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Its certainly not like it used to be, if it was the Euro vs everything else you could still weight it 70 / 30 Euro. GFS is way improved now, so at least a reason to be optimistic. The other good thing, if the GFS is more right, we have room for an earlier phase / more amped solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 hours ago, jwilson said: It's ironic that the GFS and Euro have completely flipped positions. The Euro went from amped Appalachian spine runner to suppressed, and the GFS went from suppressed to phaser coastal. The Canadian is much closer to the GFS. The Euro hangs back this fairly large piece of energy into southern B.C. It eventually becomes the dominant piece of energy but stays lagged behind the SS and doesn't even drop down. It rotates around the TPV in the NS and washes out before popping much later. Going back, it looks it's because the GFS raises heights in that NW Canada area and cleans out an LP, some of which disappears, some phases into a low over Russia. The Canadian and Euro both hold a piece of that energy and drop it into NA and strengthen it. The GFS has continually weakened that piece. The Canadian just did weaken it significantly between 0Z and 12Z. The Euro has, unsurprisingly, strengthened it. This could be the key cog in the entire mechanism. How that piece of energy resolves, if it exists at all, etc. We'll have to see once the cutter completes its cycle this weekend. It is odd they switched places, hopefully not a case of GFS being late to catch on. Thanks for the analysis, haven't looked at the overall pattern vs trends. Will be good to watch that BC LP for early hints on 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Tired so not gonna disect the GFS but it trended towards the Euro. Is it right we shall see. Cmc is a great hit but the GFS and EPS ensembles don't agree with it. Need to start seeing this trend back NW or the CMC is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Tired so not gonna disect the GFS but it trended towards the Euro. Is it right we shall see. Cmc is a great hit but the GFS and EPS ensembles don't agree with it. Need to start seeing this trend back NW or the CMC is out to lunch. It’s back on the 6z GFS but yeah, basically either east or gone on the lesser models (ICON, UKMET). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, TimB said: It’s back on the 6z GFS but yeah, basically either east or gone on the lesser models (ICON, UKMET). Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Shocking Garden variety cold without snow on the ground. Nothing even interesting like -5 in the middle of the afternoon like the Christmas 2022 thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, TimB said: Garden variety cold without snow on the ground. Nothing even interesting like -5 in the middle of the afternoon like the Christmas 2022 thing. If you want snow you generally don't want severe cold anyways. Not much clarity overnight, same possibilities still on the table from medium impact snowfall to nothing. All the ops and ens suites seem to be ocilating within that goal post still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: If you want snow you generally don't want severe cold anyways. Not much clarity overnight, same possibilities still on the table from medium impact snowfall to nothing. All the ops and ens suites seem to be ocilating within that goal post still. If there’s not going to be snow on the ground, I’d rather at least have something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah, looks like the MLK window is now gone. Might get a few inches. On a positive note if we do get 2 inches it might stick around a bit at least all in all though we are trending towards another awful winter. Still time to save it so maybe someone that knows more than me can look at the long range and see potential. That said we’ve had several windows that yielded basically nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Nothing is set in stone yet. This is all gonna depend on the orientation and interaction with the TPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 https://imgur.com/c9dB6Vnhttps://imgur.com/c9dB6Vn from the central pa thread, cmc gives us around 5 to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 gfsis 3 to 4" the gem is 6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 At least there's something still on the table with most of them. Euro is the outlier right now. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Well.. at least the airmass will be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'm not giving up until probably Sunday. We've seen big shifts last minute. Let's clear the cutter and sample the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 37 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Nothing is set in stone yet. This is all gonna depend on the orientation and interaction with the TPV. Agree. Usually a compromise / blend of guidance works best. Just depends if we are like 60/ 40 GFS camp or Euro. If its Euro we won't be as happy. That said watch Euro come in with some phased bomb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I like the positivity in here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro is better but still not great. Maybe it's the beginning of a positive trend. It will be interesting to see the ensembles. I wouldn't expect too much from this but some cold 2-4 inches would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Euro is better but still not great. Maybe it's the beginning of a positive trend. It will be interesting to see the ensembles. I wouldn't expect too much from this but some cold 2-4 inches would go a long way. Its a good point. For reference the 00z EPS showed the main run at the very bottom of members. Lots of options showing more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'd prefer we trend in the direction of a more potent southern stream short wave for the 19-20th threat. We don't typically do well with Miller B's, those usually slam northeast of us. Overall, if we get minor accumulations from Tuesday and Friday I'll be pretty disappointed in wasting this NAO period without a big storm. I know that probably ruins the positive vibes from Today but I would think a NINO with a strong NAO block would be one of our best patters to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Moderate sleet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 NWS has gone with “snow likely” in both the Tuesday and Friday windows. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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