jwilson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Bear with me, all. I'm going to make a few posts here. Haven't done this in a while so I'd like to get those snow juices flowing again. 3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: 12z GFS and CMC are fairly close in the depiction, both as you said get the primary into WV now vs GFS at 00z was further South. A lot of nuances on where the best place for the transfer to happen is, but that's getting to close for comfort. Yep. We notice a sort of "see saw" action with the energy over Oklahoma / Texas. As it digs southward, it pumps the flow ahead of it and bumps our shortwave northward. The other problem, which I'll illustrate below, is the open confluence to the north. The 12Z Euro shows this almost zonal look to the flow, but it's north enough we get better snow than at 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Seems like the long range look past day 10 or so looks promising as many others have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Here's the 13Z NBM (National Blend of Models). I set the threshold at 4", so right now this predicts our odds of >4" at 44%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Same NBM, and considering the blend, the average snow across all models is 5" (must be skewed upward by a few big hits). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Next I wanted to look at the charts. Let's start with the 0Z from earlier. Here we can see the primary differences. Notice the flatter flow to the north of our system which acts as a quasi-block. It both prevents the storm from gaining too much latitude and slows it down a little bit. The combination results in a stronger shortwave. You also have that piece of energy along the west coast digging a bit deeper which opens the entire CONUS-wide trough. This is harder to picture at the surface, but here we see the flatter flow once again and how that energy up north was elongated and less phased. The flow is mirrored on the H500 above. The energy in the central U.S. is also less concentrated, at least partially because of the west and east coast systems separately. But then we get into the 12Z models. Here we see that west coast energy is a little less pronounced, and instead the energy over Texas is digging dramatically southward. This creates a more zonal look to the flow out ahead of it. It's less into a trough on the east coast and more straight-line. We also see heights rising up north, mostly because that energy that was spread out or elongated before is now more concentrated to the East. Here we can see that northern piece a bit better. Notice again that at 0Z it was flat and stretched. Now it's a consolidated blob pushed slightly to the East. This is helping to pump those heights out ahead of the east coast shortwave, which both pulls it a little north and also opens the flow out ahead so it can escape more freely. Instead of our storm getting trapped underneath, it is now free to slide off the coast and rotate north around the rest of the waves. These are the key pieces of energy to watch going forward. We don't have a true block so it could really go either way. But if that energy up north phases too soon, we get conditions that allow our storm to progress along the boundary instead of getting dug in. The energy behind it also isn't helping, though these pieces are all acting in concert. We might still get a nice 3-6" event, but the ceiling is much lower than if we had more optimal interactions. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Accuweather’s first point and click totals are about 3-7”. I don’t think we can be upset at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 With a gulf system that is also a quick hitter, I have a feeling the NAM is going to have a pretty good spread (higher) compared to other models. I’d say let’s not dream too much of that so we aren’t disappointed by what looks like could be a nice moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gfs 18z and it's gone Fuck this hobby Hopefully once this is sampled we get better trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 That trailing wave is a PITA. Unfortunately, I don't know if that will disappear now that it seems to be trending stronger/faster on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, dj3 said: That trailing wave is a PITA. Unfortunately, I don't know if that will disappear now that it seems to be trending stronger/faster on everything. Yep unfortunately I think we are fucked. Just be happy with whatever falls, but the current trends these past 12 hours are ABSOLUTELY terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yeah, that's a bad run, but it's only one that's that bad. Lets hope it's an outlier and that the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Ahoff said: Yeah, that's a bad run, but it's only one that's that bad. Lets hope it's an outlier and that the start of a trend. I'm hoping it's the old it's an off run run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Losing the primary is killing us verbatim 12z vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Losing the primary is killing us verbatim 12z vs 18z Yeah, we'll have to see if that keeps appearing. GFS can be weird, hopefully this is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 So it trended terribly the past 12 hours so let's see if we can get some positive trends in the next runs. I need to stay away or my negativity is gonna rival KPitt . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Rd9108 said: So it trended terribly the past 12 hours so let's see if we can get some positive trends in the next runs. I need to stay away or my negativity is gonna rival KPitt . Or worse now, TimB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Thats the ensembles Yeah, GFS ensemble. I meant hopefully future runs are better, not more from the 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The GEFS ensemble mean is ugly as hell and no one really wins. Even the best areas (not us) are getting an advisory level 3-5” type event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gfs 18z and it's gone Fuck this hobby Hopefully once this is sampled we get better trendsQuite a drastic change in one run. I know we still have a ways to go yet, but it's not like it's 240 hours out when they change like this. I guess we'll see what happens next run and with the other models. Never get your hopes up around here. You'll usually be let down. Lol Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Oh my that’s a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro looks weaker fwiw. Hopefully it's just off runs and 0z shows us some goods. Maybe this is the storm where it trends better as it gets closer. We usually have them look really good at 84 and get worse as it approaches. See you back to digest the long range nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Anyone happen to see anything from Bernie Rayno on this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Anyone happen to see anything from Bernie Rayno on this system? I heard he was saying we were in the possible zone for over 6”, however that was before the most recent runs. Maybe, this is as bad as the models look for us and we have positive corrections from here. That’s all we can do is hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Anyone happen to see anything from Bernie Rayno on this system? Lol he says he likes us for 6+ BUT he also said if the energy is weaker which has been that the storm would be further north which it is not. So I don't know im misunderstanding him or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 46 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol he says he likes us for 6+ BUT he also said if the energy is weaker which has been that the storm would be further north which it is not. So I don't know im misunderstanding him or not. Maybe more north from this recent bad, southern runs, lol. That might get us 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It's dead stick a fork in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Our streak of having no meaningful snow since March 2022 continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, TimB said: Our streak of having no meaningful snow since March 2022 continues. Usually I'd feel good about us being on the northern side but seems like the energy is just weakening and there just no primary into our area. The storm is turning into a straight Miller A. This can change with future runs but it's looking bleak. KPitt I allow you to cry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Rd9108 said: Usually I'd feel good about us being on the northern side but seems like the energy is just weakening and there just no primary into our area. The storm is turning into a straight Miller A. This can change with future runs but it's looking bleak. KPitt I allow you to cry now. So far south and east it’s comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian is acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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