Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, mitchnick said: I'm in the same accumulation level as 12z. Euro is warmest of all of them. Like I said earlier today, it's so over amplified I don't put much stock in it. I could be wrong, but we have 66 hrs to fret about it...and I plan on using every hour! Yea, not saying anything regressed it just continues to overamp regardless of what it's ensembles may have shown. I do not trust the euro and would never base a forecast on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z euro a little better than 12z for some, mainly north and west. This would not be great for the Lancaster crew and is exactly what MU has been hinting at with the warm air intrusion aloft. Or at least that’s what I assume is causing the paltry totals and not just the whole storm shifting north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, not saying anything regressed it just continues to overamp regardless of what it's ensembles may have shown. I do not trust the euro and would never base a forecast on it. The day that my mood depended solely on the Euro are over. Like any good weenie, I want to look at every model for support. But if I can't get it from the Euro, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, not saying anything regressed it just continues to overamp regardless of what it's ensembles may have shown. I do not trust the euro and would never base a forecast on it. It's slipping away for you and I it seems. Euro just keeps moving further NW every 6 hours. Need it to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: For us, the modeling has been pretty consistent...almost scarily so! That should make their job easier. Still waiting for the rug to get rug pulled out but not gunna worry about it one way or the other. You haven't been a real disappointed snow weenie unless you lived south of Baltimore for 60+ years. Nah just 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Chris78 said: It's slipping away for you and I it seems. Euro just keeps moving further NW every 6 hours. Need it to stop. Since we're really talking only 25 miles as the crow flies and we're still just under 3 days away, that's easily doable. Moreover, with all 3 other globals saying otherwise, it's the Euro that needs the support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 MU riding the Euro and calling for a change to rain for us south easterners. Probably reasonable stance at this point unfortunately.Hopefully nice thump to light rain/drizzle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro is rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 25% of Lanco gets less than 1". MU special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Thoughts on the weekend storm... Look for the snow to start mid to late afternoon Saturday. Anywhere from 2-5 PM. The snow should get heavy around 7-8 PM which is when most of the accumulations will happen. The heavy to moderate snow will continue until around 1-2 AM overnight and should be shutting down around daybreak Sunday. There could be mixing around the Turnpike and around the Reading/Philly area. That will lower snow amounts. Not thinking it is a huge storm. For most I would say around 5 inches, to upwards of 8 inches in some locations. It is still 3 days away, so changes will come. If there are any major updates to the storm I will post them. Otherwise enjoy the snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's slipping away for you and I it seems. Euro just keeps moving further NW every 6 hours. Need it to stop. I truly do not think the Euro is right with all the other suites showing something different (not counting the NAM for now.) Are we going to get a Canadian slam jam? Not counting on that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, canderson said: I’ll pay someone to go post this in the MA thread. About 5 years ago I posted there. Here’s your 2 feet of snow. picture 2 feet made of snow. I was on their shit list for a couple years. Was it you who put me up to it?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’ll pay someone to go post this in the MA thread. Bad juju….and now we’re going to pay for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, pawatch said: About 5 years ago I posted there. Here’s your 2 feet of snow. picture 2 feet made of snow. I was on their shit list for a couple years. Was it you who put me up to it?? What I do not get is a good many of those posters are from the days where it was one big forum from Maine to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I truly do not think the Euro is right with all the other suites showing something different (not counting the NAM for now.) Are we going to get a Canadian slam jam? Not counting on that either. I hope your right. I worry its the Euros superior resolution that allowing it to see the temp issues for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: What I do not get is a good many of those posters are from the days where it was one big forum from Maine to NC. I don’t even remember names anymore. I guess we will find out how the Euro preforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I hope your right. I worry its the Euros superior resolution that allowing it to see the temp issues for our area. I was thinking it was more about the pressure and location of the SLP having more of a warm conveyer belt brought it. Although if you compare the CMC and Euro it truly is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I hate this hobby 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was thinking it was more about the pressure and location of the SLP having more of a warm conveyer belt brought it. Take a look at the MA thread. Psu posted the Low track from the 18z euro. It's a perfect track rainstorm for Balt/ Wash. Just need the gfs temps leading in and we'd be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Chris78 said: Take a look at the MA thread. Psu posted the Low track from the 18z euro. It's a perfect train rainstorm for Balt/ Wash. Just need the gfs temps leading in and we'd be good Yea, I updated my post and was comparing the CMC and the Euro. One thing (that has been stated dozens and dozens of times both here and MA) is that we have no room for any extra intrusion, so you point is more than valid. It is simply not going to be that cold and there is nothing to our north to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I truly do not think the Euro is right with all the other suites showing something different (not counting the NAM for now.) Are we going to get a Canadian slam jam? Not counting on that either. The answer likely will be somewhere in the middle for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Case in point, the snowy CMC. That red line long way from us so the CMC is counting on temps to decrease from precip rates and pulling down small bit of colder air as well as the time of the day. So, while I think it would surprise me if the Euro pulls the coup, we have absolutely no room for anything to go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I hate this hobby Lol, see you at 0z … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I updated my post and was comparing the CMC and the Euro. One thing (that has been stated dozens and dozens of times both here and MA) is that we have no room for any extra intrusion, so you point is more than valid. It is simply not going to be that cold and there is nothing to our north to change that. I do think heavier the thump the better off we will be. It's going to be relatively dry so hopefully we can get a decent amount of evaporation cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I believe JB is going for 6-12 for most of us in Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, mahantango#1 said: I believe JB is going for 6-12 for most of us in Pa. Someday, in a faraway galaxy, he is going to forecast something lower than any other met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I do think heavier the thump the better off we will be. It's going to be relatively dry so hopefully we can get a decent amount of evaporation cooling. This is important and I agree. Column can be cooled with dynamic rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I believe JB is going for 6-12 for most of us in Pa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Someday, in a faraway galaxy, he is going to forecast something lower than any other met. Introducing...Henry Margusity. As of yesterday he had all of us at 12-18". LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The Euro had a very warm bias this past summer. It often had temps several degrees higher than any other model and in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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