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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Same movie as with 6z. Operational goes off on one of its wild tangents and ensembles bring us back to reality, for better or for worse. In this case, as at 6z, for better.

Good to see the 12z EPS run. It was its best run for most of CTP for the weekend storm since a couple of days ago.

Hopefully the goal posts begin to be set sometime tomorrow.

IMG_4037.png

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The final numbers are in on an historic year for weather enthusiasts!

Here are some notable records from Harrisburg, PA:

Mean temperature (averaged by month) tied 2021 for the record of 56.7F.

image.png.1a7816852777741366291d15bdaded89.png

Averaging by day (which is slightly more accurate when, as here, there are no missing days), it was just a hair below 2021:

image.png.5e65e0d4ce1727961c1dafb5e472936e.png

The mean maximum temperature of 66.1F tied 1998 for the record highest value:

image.png.58406068770cbafd221ad6dcd7352e48.png

The mean minimum temperature of 47.3F, was good for third warmest of record behind 2021 & 2020.

image.png.966d95b46368c8a14356c9435570cda3.png

Also, of note, calendar year snowfall of 3.9 inches, easily bested 2006 for the least amount on record.

image.png.8a30dcf59db7568ae1367912073a2b93.png

Temperature and snowfall records date to 1889 for the Harrisburg area.

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At Williamsport, it was the warmest year on record with a mean temperature of 54.0F:

image.png.e15a1bc6db5f3f261b95451f26ec727d.png

It was also the warmest mean maximum (64.1F) and mean minimum (43.8F) on record.

Calendar year snowfall totaled a paltry 12.0 inches, good for second least on record behind 2006.

Temperature and snowfall records for Williamsport date back to 1896.

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CTP on board:

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Arrival of 1030mb high pressure ends snow shower activity
Thursday evening with clearing skies. Low temps trend about 10F
lower night over night with minTs in the mid teens to low 20s
Friday morning. Fair wx to end the week with sunshine giving way
to increasing clouds Friday night ahead of weekend storm
system.

The weekend coastal storm has its origins in the Four Corners
region of the southwest US Thursday afternoon, with another area
of low pressure forming along the Mississippi Gulf Coast by
later Friday. The broad, double barrel low will track to near
the Delmarva region by 00z Sunday, when the coastal low becomes
dominant.

The potential still exists for a high end advisory to low end
warning level snow event. Snow onset timing looks like Saturday
morning to early afternoon with precip spreading from south to
north across CPA. Heaviest snowfall would most likely be in the
afternoon/evening into the first part of Saturday night with,
with lighter snow tapering off between 12-18Z Sunday. The
greatest uncertainty with rain/snow ptype is from I81/78 to the
I95 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The transition to a very active flow pattern over North America
is forecast to continue during the long term period. Monday
will be a quiet day, after what is forecast to be a considerable
coastal storm over the weekend likely bringing the first
significant snow for Central PA in some time, another wintry system
looks promising for mid week. At the current time, the mid week
storm system is forecast to be stronger and with a track of the
primary sfc low going west of PA. This presents a snow to mix
to rain scenario for the region.

Another key impact with this storm is the potential for
strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD
below the mean.

Much too early for details, but much excitement for sure for
snow lovers as we plunge into the New Year.
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1 minute ago, paweather said:

CTP on board:

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Arrival of 1030mb high pressure ends snow shower activity
Thursday evening with clearing skies. Low temps trend about 10F
lower night over night with minTs in the mid teens to low 20s
Friday morning. Fair wx to end the week with sunshine giving way
to increasing clouds Friday night ahead of weekend storm
system.

The weekend coastal storm has its origins in the Four Corners
region of the southwest US Thursday afternoon, with another area
of low pressure forming along the Mississippi Gulf Coast by
later Friday. The broad, double barrel low will track to near
the Delmarva region by 00z Sunday, when the coastal low becomes
dominant.

The potential still exists for a high end advisory to low end
warning level snow event. Snow onset timing looks like Saturday
morning to early afternoon with precip spreading from south to
north across CPA. Heaviest snowfall would most likely be in the
afternoon/evening into the first part of Saturday night with,
with lighter snow tapering off between 12-18Z Sunday. The
greatest uncertainty with rain/snow ptype is from I81/78 to the
I95 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The transition to a very active flow pattern over North America
is forecast to continue during the long term period. Monday
will be a quiet day, after what is forecast to be a considerable
coastal storm over the weekend likely bringing the first
significant snow for Central PA in some time, another wintry system
looks promising for mid week. At the current time, the mid week
storm system is forecast to be stronger and with a track of the
primary sfc low going west of PA. This presents a snow to mix
to rain scenario for the region.

Another key impact with this storm is the potential for
strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD
below the mean.

Much too early for details, but much excitement for sure for
snow lovers as we plunge into the New Year.

thats about as good as one could ask for....considering the source and normal bias.  

 

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49 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

You should probably read more and post less

Maybe you should stay out of our thread. Most of us get along quite well and don't mind the off topic (and sometimes off color) banter. We're all friends here, and every one of the regular, long term posters are well respected.

 

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Just now, Voyager said:

Maybe you should stay out of our thread. Most of us get along quite well and don't mind the off topic (and sometimes off color) banter. We're all friends here, and everyone of the regular, long term posters are well respected.

 

Sexist or any kind of inappropriate comments are not acceptable. Period. You know where the door is if you don’t like it ;) 

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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Maybe you should stay out of our thread. Most of us get along quite well and don't mind the off topic (and sometimes off color) banter. We're all friends here, and every one of the regular, long term posters are well respected.

 

Guessing someone got offended and called the popo in.  Sure hope Atomix is not out as there are others that have tried harder to muck up our crew...and they are left unchecked. 

and btw, I'm dead to a couple in here.  :D

Enjoy your snow this weekend.  You know you will a weee bit. 

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I've been swamped and haven't had a chance to look at anything but did see CTP has heavy snow in my grid forecast now for Saturday. 

Saturday
Snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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NAM trying really hard to make Elliott as iconic as this legend:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfebpLfAt8g

I remember this game like it was yesterday. Fortunately, ABC showed it on their end of day scoreboard show about 12 times. 

It ain't over until...it's over. And he isn't wrong until...he's wrong. 

He'll still likely be wrong...we shall see. 

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While the NAM itself seems completely disinterested in making any kind of event at all in PA, the SREF blend looks surprisingly reasonable. It generally sits in between the Euro EPS and the lackluster GEFS blend. I think the NAM eventually picks up on it the next few runs. There’s too much support for an event across the board to reasonably think otherwise at this point. 

image.thumb.png.49b8fdc1b33040c4d54a25f2fac619a7.png

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I'm in Mexico till the 8th. I'm still following this, and especially the potential for a parade of storms like it's Christmas day. Even if I don't see the snow falling from the first storm I'll be thrilled to land in a sea of white, have a drought busted, and be on the precipice for more.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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