Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Same movie as with 6z. Operational goes off on one of its wild tangents and ensembles bring us back to reality, for better or for worse. In this case, as at 6z, for better. Good to see the 12z EPS run. It was its best run for most of CTP for the weekend storm since a couple of days ago. Hopefully the goal posts begin to be set sometime tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We used to sort of nominate people to do PBP for any given model run. That did cut down on some posts. I had been doing a lot because no one else felt the need or felt comfortable doing them but we seem to have more posters now that are trying their hand at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Maybe you should actually read and you'll see there wasn't anything sexist posted. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk You should probably read more and post less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 anyone feeling a good ol NAM'ing for HH? Hope that offends noone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The final numbers are in on an historic year for weather enthusiasts! Here are some notable records from Harrisburg, PA: Mean temperature (averaged by month) tied 2021 for the record of 56.7F. Averaging by day (which is slightly more accurate when, as here, there are no missing days), it was just a hair below 2021: The mean maximum temperature of 66.1F tied 1998 for the record highest value: The mean minimum temperature of 47.3F, was good for third warmest of record behind 2021 & 2020. Also, of note, calendar year snowfall of 3.9 inches, easily bested 2006 for the least amount on record. Temperature and snowfall records date to 1889 for the Harrisburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 At Williamsport, it was the warmest year on record with a mean temperature of 54.0F: It was also the warmest mean maximum (64.1F) and mean minimum (43.8F) on record. Calendar year snowfall totaled a paltry 12.0 inches, good for second least on record behind 2006. Temperature and snowfall records for Williamsport date back to 1896. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CTP on board: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Arrival of 1030mb high pressure ends snow shower activity Thursday evening with clearing skies. Low temps trend about 10F lower night over night with minTs in the mid teens to low 20s Friday morning. Fair wx to end the week with sunshine giving way to increasing clouds Friday night ahead of weekend storm system. The weekend coastal storm has its origins in the Four Corners region of the southwest US Thursday afternoon, with another area of low pressure forming along the Mississippi Gulf Coast by later Friday. The broad, double barrel low will track to near the Delmarva region by 00z Sunday, when the coastal low becomes dominant. The potential still exists for a high end advisory to low end warning level snow event. Snow onset timing looks like Saturday morning to early afternoon with precip spreading from south to north across CPA. Heaviest snowfall would most likely be in the afternoon/evening into the first part of Saturday night with, with lighter snow tapering off between 12-18Z Sunday. The greatest uncertainty with rain/snow ptype is from I81/78 to the I95 corridor. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The transition to a very active flow pattern over North America is forecast to continue during the long term period. Monday will be a quiet day, after what is forecast to be a considerable coastal storm over the weekend likely bringing the first significant snow for Central PA in some time, another wintry system looks promising for mid week. At the current time, the mid week storm system is forecast to be stronger and with a track of the primary sfc low going west of PA. This presents a snow to mix to rain scenario for the region. Another key impact with this storm is the potential for strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean. Much too early for details, but much excitement for sure for snow lovers as we plunge into the New Year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, paweather said: CTP on board: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Arrival of 1030mb high pressure ends snow shower activity Thursday evening with clearing skies. Low temps trend about 10F lower night over night with minTs in the mid teens to low 20s Friday morning. Fair wx to end the week with sunshine giving way to increasing clouds Friday night ahead of weekend storm system. The weekend coastal storm has its origins in the Four Corners region of the southwest US Thursday afternoon, with another area of low pressure forming along the Mississippi Gulf Coast by later Friday. The broad, double barrel low will track to near the Delmarva region by 00z Sunday, when the coastal low becomes dominant. The potential still exists for a high end advisory to low end warning level snow event. Snow onset timing looks like Saturday morning to early afternoon with precip spreading from south to north across CPA. Heaviest snowfall would most likely be in the afternoon/evening into the first part of Saturday night with, with lighter snow tapering off between 12-18Z Sunday. The greatest uncertainty with rain/snow ptype is from I81/78 to the I95 corridor. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The transition to a very active flow pattern over North America is forecast to continue during the long term period. Monday will be a quiet day, after what is forecast to be a considerable coastal storm over the weekend likely bringing the first significant snow for Central PA in some time, another wintry system looks promising for mid week. At the current time, the mid week storm system is forecast to be stronger and with a track of the primary sfc low going west of PA. This presents a snow to mix to rain scenario for the region. Another key impact with this storm is the potential for strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean. Much too early for details, but much excitement for sure for snow lovers as we plunge into the New Year. thats about as good as one could ask for....considering the source and normal bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: thats about as good as one could ask for....considering the source and normal bias. I agree. Definitely encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM looks juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 49 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: You should probably read more and post less Maybe you should stay out of our thread. Most of us get along quite well and don't mind the off topic (and sometimes off color) banter. We're all friends here, and every one of the regular, long term posters are well respected. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Voyager said: Maybe you should stay out of our thread. Most of us get along quite well and don't mind the off topic (and sometimes off color) banter. We're all friends here, and everyone of the regular, long term posters are well respected. Sexist or any kind of inappropriate comments are not acceptable. Period. You know where the door is if you don’t like it 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I've been swamped and haven't had a chance to look at anything but did see CTP has heavy snow in my grid forecast now for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nam still pretty convoluted. Do not like the closeness of the kicker in the top left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, Voyager said: Maybe you should stay out of our thread. Most of us get along quite well and don't mind the off topic (and sometimes off color) banter. We're all friends here, and every one of the regular, long term posters are well respected. Guessing someone got offended and called the popo in. Sure hope Atomix is not out as there are others that have tried harder to muck up our crew...and they are left unchecked. and btw, I'm dead to a couple in here. Enjoy your snow this weekend. You know you will a weee bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, canderson said: I've been swamped and haven't had a chance to look at anything but did see CTP has heavy snow in my grid forecast now for Saturday. Saturday Snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nam's precip is awkwardly small and constrained. It is a computer though so there is a reason and I think it is the energy to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 well at least on the HH NAM, i'm safe from mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 From DT: it’s a good thought, but no one is going to see significant freezing rain with these barely marginal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM trying really hard to make Elliott as iconic as this legend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfebpLfAt8g I remember this game like it was yesterday. Fortunately, ABC showed it on their end of day scoreboard show about 12 times. It ain't over until...it's over. And he isn't wrong until...he's wrong. He'll still likely be wrong...we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Rgem still rolling large albeit it a bit too far west for everyone's comfort in the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Rgem still rolling large albeit it a bit too far west for everyone's comfort in the LSV. Gotta love the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 While the NAM itself seems completely disinterested in making any kind of event at all in PA, the SREF blend looks surprisingly reasonable. It generally sits in between the Euro EPS and the lackluster GEFS blend. I think the NAM eventually picks up on it the next few runs. There’s too much support for an event across the board to reasonably think otherwise at this point. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Icon close to identical to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Rgem still rolling large albeit it a bit too far west for everyone's comfort in the LSV. Man, is that ever sweet in our backyards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1" - 1.25" of QPF for many in southern PA on the RGEM. A wee bit different than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm in Mexico till the 8th. I'm still following this, and especially the potential for a parade of storms like it's Christmas day. Even if I don't see the snow falling from the first storm I'll be thrilled to land in a sea of white, have a drought busted, and be on the precipice for more. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Man, is that ever sweet in our backyards. Why can't it just be right once... or close would also work too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Why can't it just be right once... or close would also work too. We are not worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Icon continues to hold on to light snow for another 6-12 hours, depending on location, after the main batch is thru by 1AM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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