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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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You've been doing this long enough.  Weenie rule #1 is hug ANY model that give you snow, then cherrypick for your wish list. 
I thought that even with those rules established, we still considered der iKon such a laughable model that it wasn't even given the benefit of "look at what this shows," except to point and laugh when it fails miserably.

Now watch this be der iKon's NAM moment.

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The Canadian is really the only one I know that is still pushing over a foot for large areas.  That makes them the king for 6 hours :-) 
I mean, I'd take a foot, but the last four model runs or so have had me being from a position of "almost certainly warning criteria will verify" to "if this is it, I'd rather it just be sunny and cold, I have shit to do."

So seeing this one is nice. It'll change as they always do.

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11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS is in a good spot but is such a swift mover it dampens totals a bit....

Edit:  totals go up a wee bit more as snow showers linger through Sunday

 

pattern always suggested this would be a quickish hitter with no deep troughing to help slow things down.  I'll take my progressive 3-6 and be giddy at that. 

Beggars........

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7 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

One thing I’ve noticed on models starting last night was a pretty significant increase in precip intensity along and to the northwest of the R/S line. So while the storm is moving along quickly it seems the intensity could be decent.

and for marginal areas, intensity is the way to the snowy white promise land.  

Words that live in infamy....we can overcome.....

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8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I thought that even with those rules established, we still considered der iKon such a laughable model that it wasn't even given the benefit of "look at what this shows," except to point and laugh when it fails miserably.

Now watch this be der iKon's NAM moment.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Iget ya.  For me/others its all about consensus building and creating goalposts.  Happy to see its on board for something.  Thats all. 

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After general review of nooners, only worry I've got down here in LSV'ville is that 540's ticked north, and at 72hr out, still some subtle jogs left to decide winners and losers....Hoping that trend stops, but as many of us know, that is something that happens all too often.  

That said, there should be a decent amount of winners in our group (norther/westers).  

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That is one wound up beast for next week - this is just through 7am Wednesday:

p168i.gif?1704299005

Yea, I think it's a concern as modeled.  Let's assume the Canadian's are right and much of PA gets 10-15" of snow....the next two days the temps are near or below normal all day then more snow comes followed by 2-3" of rain.  Could have some roof issues as well as streets not being able to move water away fast enough. 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I think it's a concern as modeled.  Let's assume the Canadian's are right and much of PA gets 10-15" of snow....the next two days the temps are near or below normal all day then more snow comes followed by 2-3" of rain.  Could have some roof issues as well as streets not being able to move water away fast enough. 

Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:)

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to
be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts
mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play.
The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with
MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean.
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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I think it's a concern as modeled.  Let's assume the Canadian's are right and much of PA gets 10-15" of snow....the next two days the temps are near or below normal all day then more snow comes followed by 2-3" of rain.  Could have some roof issues as well as streets not being able to move water away fast enough. 

I'm just glad we will be white this weekend. Whatever happens next week let it happen. Except for house damage. :D But at least white for a few days. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:)

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to
be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts
mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play.
The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with
MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean.

I'll take a good front end dump and see it wash. 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:)

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to
be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts
mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play.
The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with
MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean.

The triple play of 3 significant systems through Jan 15th for the Eastern half of the country is going to get lots of air play on the news. 

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I was not sure if that post or his dump and wash post was going to be your next reply. 
I didn't see the front end dump and wash post. I saw "I'm just glad we're going to be white" and hit the quote button before the banners and hats started being doled out.

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Storm 3 is a snowmageddon for much of PA on the GFS. 
Show it. Let's confuse the shit out of any lurker by serving up three different storms' worth of model suites at the same time.

It's Three Storm Monty time.

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