anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10pm sat icon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 So we take der iKon seriously now? LolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Hr 84 of RGEM would lead you to believe central and eastern pa get hit pretty good. CMC should be good here shortly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Atomixwx said: So we take der iKon seriously now? Lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk It has at least been consistent in taking the low under us vs. forcing energy our west. EC and GFS have waffled between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: True except it is above freezing in the SE corner of the LSV at the surface. Would it actually be above freezing with heavy snow falling? I vote no but that is what the output shows. I always seem to forget that part of the forum and only look west. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: So we take der iKon seriously now? Lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Nope. Just model observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nam was trash, but its ensembles , SREF, were not. I'll let you explore if interested at this link. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2024010309&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam was trash, but its ensembles , SREF, were not. I'll let you explore if interested at this link. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2024010309&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 It is soon plume time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It is soon plume time! Meh...i hate those things. I feel I'm looking at bar codes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I really, really do hope he is wrong...but until he is wrong, he isn't. I've seen models/forecasts for a lot more snow than this disappear with much less time remaining before onset. I'm not negative, but I am jaded. Many, many years of last second failures has taught me to assume nothing when it comes to snow. Until it's on the ground, that is. I get your being jaded, as we share same weather and like you, i've been at this hobby for over 35 years. Point I'm making is that while we still may fail, many here can see signs for optimism and didnt need to wait for someone to say so. Doesnt mean we all win, (and we all know that losing is always the safer bet wrt our precious snow), but unless the bottom drops out, we are in short term, and staring down our first appreciable event and cautious optimism is warranted. The reasonings why have been shared by some of us for some time now...and are largely ignored/dismissed by others. On a disco forum, that's the rub for me anyway, and while almost all of us have no formal titles or pins to put on our chest....we still have plenty to offer towards good weather disco and offer info to support our claims...right or wrong. Isn't that what a disco forum is for? While he and others are pretty/really damn good, they are capable of being off....just like the best of the best here and everywhere. Part of the fun for some/many is trying to nail down an event long before it happens, and frankly for me, what I enjoy most. The event is almost anti climactic, as i need to start searching for the next one to hunt and sometimes they are few and far between (2016 and last year come to mind). Here's to some great nooners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Meh...i hate those things. I feel I'm looking at bar codes. I think people often look at that as a last resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 For anyone who wants a look. Here is the 12Z ICON Snowfall output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Wxdavis5784 said: For anyone who wants a look. Here is the 12Z ICON Snowfall output. At 10:1, that is drastically different that the SLR one I saw. SLR was about half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I think gfs is better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I think gfs is better than 6z Quite a bit slower with snow in the air for South Central PA compared to some other suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: At 10:1, that is drastically different that the SLR one I saw. SLR was about half. Thats all I get with WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NBM continues trend of reducing model snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS is in a good spot but is such a swift mover it dampens totals a bit.... Edit: totals go up a wee bit more as snow showers linger through Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Thats all I get with WB. Usually the differences between 10:1 and Kuch/SLR are not that much when under 10" Here is SLR from TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12Z is a good run. Fast mover though.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GFS is in a good spot but is such a swift mover it dampens totals a bit.... Quite a bit more snow than the 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, GrandmasterB said: Quite a bit more snow than the 6Z Close to double. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RGEM's eventual result 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gfs seems to be stringing out the 5H energy instead of keeping it in 1 piece, hence the lingering lt snow for a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RGEM's eventual result This is the best result IMBY in a few runs lol. I'll take it. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: This is the best result IMBY in a few runs lol. I'll take it. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk The Canadian is really the only one I know that is still pushing over a foot for large areas. That makes them the king for 6 hours :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 34 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: So we take der iKon seriously now? Lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk You've been doing this long enough. Weenie rule #1 is hug ANY model that give you snow, then cherrypick for your wish list. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks like a big thump type snow. That will lay fast.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 34 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Hr 84 of RGEM would lead you to believe central and eastern pa get hit pretty good. CMC should be good here shortly . RGEM thermals a tick better for LSV at 78. All i can see for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 One thing I’ve noticed on models starting last night was a pretty significant increase in precip intensity along and to the northwest of the R/S line. So while the storm is moving along quickly it seems the intensity could be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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