pawatch Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw a map in the MA that showed rain in the LSV at hour 90. But one thing we can ascertain...the Euro and GFS are quite a bit apart. Ha, the battle of the models. Never fails. What is considered a plowable snow these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z NAM out to Hr60, minimal changes from 0z or 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, pawatch said: Ha, the battle of the models. Never fails. What is considered a plowable snow these days? That has been debated here. Some say 2". I first heard that term on ABC 27 or Wgal and they were suggesting 4 or more inches. Models are inconsistent but really what make this board live...if they were rarely wrong, there would not be nearly as much discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: 12z NAM out to Hr60, minimal changes from 0z or 6z. If it shows the OTS solution again, I am ignoring it for now. Love me some Nam but that is a drastic departure from the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nam has a Dual barreled situation with one low in the TN Valley and one off the SE Coast at 1PM Sat. No Precip near PA at this point. At 7PM the coastal takes over and a light mix of rain/snow/frz/sleet in far South PA. Not impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Wtf is with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If it shows the OTS solution again, I am ignoring it for now. Love me some Nam but that is a drastic departure from the others. Looks to be more north than 6z, primary over the TN/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: Wtf is with the NAM . I think it's catching up. This was a "better" solution than 6z. I expect it to come around by tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Looks to be more north than 6z, primary over the TN/NC border. It definitely changed a bit so assuming it is going to trend more toward the other suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Wtf is with the NAM . NAM at 70 plus is never to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, paweather said: NAM at 70 plus is never to take. If the Nam shows 1-2 feet, this place would be posting maps at a rapid pace. Rgem is rolling and it always comes in fast on pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If the Nam shows 1-2 feet, this place would be posting maps at a rapid pace. Rgem is rolling and it always comes in fast on pivotal. Rgem has value. Nam has issues. But I plead guilty to posting the Nam when it looks good. It's what a weenie does. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 By the way, 6z Rgem was sweet. I can't recall if it was posted as my head is a wee bit foggy with this dang cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: By the way, 6z Rgem was sweet. I can't recall if it was posted as my head is a wee bit foggy with this dang cold. It backed up the CMC , IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It backed up the CMC , IMO 1033 High this run at 75 hrs v 1031 on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: 1033 High this run at 75 hrs v 1031 on 6z It is a winner...crowd pleaser plus. Well, Southern half of PA crowd and the MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I think the Rgem would eventually be 1-2 feet in Southern PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I think the Rgem would eventually be 1-2 feet in Southern PA Keep talking............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem has value. Nam has issues. But I plead guilty to posting the Nam when it looks good. It's what a weenie does. Thank you. Weenie heaven for sure. Rgem? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Keep talking............. You and I are already approaching 10" Kuch at 7PM Saturday. The other great thing about this evolution is less front end mixing concerns for PA or far N MD. Might get some snow TV as the surface is warm but the column seems better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You and I are already approaching 10" Kuch at 7PM Saturday. The other great thing about this evolution is less mixing concerns for PA or far N MD. Might get some snow TV as the surface is warm but the column seems better. With the slp on the Rgem to our SE moving NE, we don't need to worry about any warming at any level imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: With the slp on the Rgem to our SE moving NE, we don't need to worry about any warming at any level imho. True except it is above freezing in the SE corner of the LSV at the surface. Would it actually be above freezing with heavy snow falling? I vote no but that is what the output shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If only we had some blocking.But beggars CANNOT be choosers anymore . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Icon has mod-heavy snow for about half of far Southern PA at 1PM on Sat. This includes the Pitt crew. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: True except it is above freezing in the SE corner of the LSV at the surface. Would it actually be above freezing with heavy snow falling? I vote no but that is what the output shows. SE corner Lanco or Phily burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 SE corner Lanco or Phily burbs? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, paweather said: SE corner Lanco or Phily burbs? It is actually most of Lanco. Very marginal temps as modeled on the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON Big hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Icon is a very fast mover....2-4 or 3-5" for much of PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Icon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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