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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

18z GEFS mean still involved most of PA but was def lean on QPF.

Total QPF mean

image.thumb.png.609e78da7de91bc87916c0a322a50d0d.png

Let’s have a look more specifically. Here’s MDT’s 24hr snowfall on the individual members. 

image.thumb.png.0c874edab1120b306df106dc33a783c2.png

The majority show at least advisory snowfall, while only about 1/3 crack warning criteria (5”). And there’s about 8 members that would be sub-advisory type snowfall. This was a really progressive run on the GFS/GEFS this go around. Is it right? I dunno.. Usually Gulf lows find a way to have a nice precip shield with it and I think this might have went a bit far on the dry side. The more progressive/less QPF trend was noted just about everything today though. This thing is just starting to come onshore on the west coast, so the next few runs will be interesting to see. 

Good points & I think we will see somewhat of a juicing back up during the final 48 hours prior to the event.

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Also, the pattern has changed & this potential event fits the new pattern.

”Expectations in check” likely means don’t expect a foot like some Ops showed yesterday.

A Warning level event is certainly on the table, but average amounts will probably be closer to 6 instead of 12 at this time, so my expectations are certainly in check, Lol!

So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern? 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

18z Euro EPS vs 12z, still okay but means are down a bit. 

image.thumb.png.4969206d7d448e43d486511417bad05a.png

Our vort is now 1 with the trailing vort and the western (back) looked deeper on the Eps this run. If this trend continues, it won't be rain that's our problem but sun.

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern? 

I know he is a great Met, but I don’t agree if he is saying the pattern hasn’t changed this week from the pattern that we had around Christmas.

If he is just saying the models from yesterday that showed some major foot plus amounts do not fit the pattern, then I’ll agree with that point.

Like CTP said, a plowable  snow  is increasing in potential.

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern? 

Speaking of keeping expectations in check, lol. I’d make a sizable bet stuff like this is what he’s referring to. I just took that screenshot so 5hrs ago was after the 12z suite today. 

image.thumb.png.8f52ff0ee04188058de2a1505b871da8.png

 

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Just a reminder, if this thing is starting around Noon, give or take, on Saturday, we're only 3 and a half days away from start essentially. I mention it because I  saw 5 days thrown around in some of the other forums.

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Speaking of keeping expectations in check, lol. I’d make a sizable bet stuff like this is what he’s referring to. I just took that screenshot so 5hrs ago was after the 12z suite today. 
image.thumb.png.8f52ff0ee04188058de2a1505b871da8.png
 
Jesus Christ. This kind of shit should be illegal


Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just watched ABC-27 Eric Finkenbinder’s forecast from this Evening & he said they are thinking around 6 inches of snow at this time, but need to monitor the next few days.

I’m not staying up for the 0z runs tonight. I’m going to wake up in the morning and just look at Amwx subs to see how many (or not) pages have been added prior to looking at the runs early tomorrow AM. I’ll know if it’s good or bad off that alone.

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6 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

I’m not staying up for the 0z runs tonight. I’m going to wake up in the morning and just look at Amwx subs to see how many (or not) pages have been added prior to looking at the runs early tomorrow AM. I’ll know if it’s good or bad off that alone.

Nice play !

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6 minutes ago, paweather said:

What is meant by fits the pattern? 

Could be a couple of things. I won’t put words in anyone’s mouth but here’s my objective thoughts on some of the cons of this setup.

Precip issues are still possible in the southern tier even with these lower QPF/progressive solutions depending on the thermals.. something we won’t have a firm handle of till we’re in range of the high res guidance. I do think we’ll see mostly snow in here from this, but the possibility of some mixing in the southern tier still exists. We’ve changed the pattern around to where it’s cold enough and we have a high available for this system, but it’s still not significantly cold here.. just cold that’s average. 

The 500mb pattern out west  is not typically what you would see for a C-PA snowstorm. We’re always looking for the big western ridge and associated amplification to run a coastal storm all the way up the coast and we have the complete opposite with the -PNA setting up and a big western trough. What makes this work is having some downstream blocking and 50/50 low allowing this shortwave that kicks out from the southwest go underneath us. What’s being pointed out by some is these weaker solutions late today along with being faster come from more energy dumping into the southwestern trough (which eventually becomes our next headache next week)  making for a weaker shortwave (that becomes our weekend storm) that kicks out. That kind of evolution takes away the top end potential. This is still probably a half decent event but not a blockbuster 1-2 foot type thing. More of 4-8” kind of event is what I’m thinking right now for the swath of heaviest snow… which I think about anyone in here would be happy with. 

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18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Could be a couple of things. I won’t put words in anyone’s mouth but here’s my objective thoughts on some of the cons of this setup.

Precip issues are still possible in the southern tier even with these lower QPF/progressive solutions depending on the thermals.. something we won’t have a firm handle of till we’re in range of the high res guidance. I do think we’ll see mostly snow in here from this, but the possibility of some mixing in the southern tier still exists. We’ve changed the pattern around to where it’s cold enough and we have a high available for this system, but it’s still not significantly cold here.. just cold that’s average. 

The 500mb pattern out west  is not typically what you would see for a C-PA snowstorm. We’re always looking for the big western ridge and associated amplification to run a coastal storm all the way up the coast and we have the complete opposite with the -PNA setting up and a big western trough. What makes this work is having some downstream blocking and 50/50 low allowing this shortwave that kicks out from the southwest go underneath us. What’s being pointed out by some is these weaker solutions late today along with being faster come from more energy dumping into the southwestern trough (which eventually becomes our next headache next week)  making for a weaker shortwave (that becomes our weekend storm) that kicks out. That kind of evolution takes away the top end potential. This is still probably a half decent event but not a blockbuster 1-2 foot type thing. More of 4-8” kind of event is what I’m thinking right now for the swath of heaviest snow… which I think about anyone in here would be happy with. 

Makes sense thanks Mag

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