paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: NAM AT RANGE WARNING----NAM AT RANGE WARNING At 84 hours the SLP is on the cusp of the Gulf near New Orleans in a very similar position as the 12Z CMC. The approaching High is displaced a bit East vs, the CMC. Looking at 500H it is going to go North East in some manner but would be guess work to suggest how. NAM at range warning. You serious? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, paweather said: NAM at range warning. You serious? LOL. Looking forward to an ICON warning shortly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, paweather said: NAM at range warning. You serious? LOL. I have to do something to counteract the silly comments I get about not using guidance past a certain hour....this after watching the big boys flip and flop today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I have to do something to counteract the silly comments I get about not using guidance past a certain hour....this after watching the big boys flip and flop today. Lots of flip and flops today but that is all the time. I am still liking the chances of a quick 4-8" type storm. Power El Nino like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CTP: The operational GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models continue to show a similar story - isentropic ascent ahead of the storm system moving into the region by Saturday morning and becoming most vigorous by Sat afternoon into early Sat evening. By 00z Sunday, the dominant forcing transitions from isentropic ascent to fgen banding on the back side of the low, within a paired right entrance / left exit region of the upper jet. This scenario would result in several inches of snow across central PA. However, it is worth noting that there are still some ensemble members that keep most of the precip to the east, resulting in little to no snow accumulation for central PA. The range of possibilities shown by the NBM 10th and 90th percentiles ranges from a coating to 1 inch in the best case to over 1 foot of snow in some spots in the worst case scenario. There will be a period of dry weather later Sunday through Monday night before the next storm system approaches late Monday night. This storm looks to be stronger than the weekend storm, but also has the potential to track to our west, ultimately putting is in the warm sector after a period of cold air damming. In that case, there could be a several hour period of snow before a mix with and changeover to rain. However, it is much too early for details, as there is plenty of time for the track of this system to change. The presence of cold air ahead of this system will also depend and how much snowpack is left behind from the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18Z GFS back to a Miller A/almost Southern slider but does hammer the LSV. Little to no OH Valley Prescence. It almost escaped...close call. Northern PA mostly left. Fast mover so only 4-8" despite some good rates. The changes are fairly drastic from 12Z. No time to dissect, sure someone will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yeah, that’s a bit of a different evolution per the GFS. I think I prefer this outcome since it would leave a lot of us with some additional wiggle room if it comes more northwest within the last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 45 minutes ago, paweather said: Lots of flip and flops today but that is all the time. I am still liking the chances of a quick 4-8" type storm. Power El Nino like. 6” would double my entire 2001-2003 snow total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, GrandmasterB said: Yeah, that’s a bit of a different evolution per the GFS. I think I prefer this outcome since it would leave a lot of us with some additional wiggle room if it comes more northwest within the last 48 hours. Parts of the MA panic room can wind down again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18Z GFS back to a Miller A/almost Southern slider but does hammer the LSV. Little to no OH Valley Prescence. It almost escaped...close call. Northern PA mostly left. Fast mover so only 4-8" despite some good rates. The changes are fairly drastic from 12Z. No time to dissect, sure someone will do it. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Decent band of 6-10 across southeastern areas. State College fringed verbatim, but I think they’d do fine with this evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Good run . Yep fairly consistent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Superstorm said: Good run . Helps you guys a ton. I just bounced between some maps and it is weaker. Just a little worried in what it does from hour 96 to 102. That is quite the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, paweather said: Yep fairly consistent! I hope you are joking. LOL. Check out this compare from 12 to 18Z. 12 has a dying primary/ULL in Ohio. 18 has little precip in far SW PA because there was little prescence in the Oh Valley. Weaker and faster low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10:1 Kuch 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I hope you are joking. LOL. Check out this compare from 12 to 18Z. 12 has a dying primary/ULL in Ohio. 18 has little precip in far SW PA because there was little prescence in the Oh Valley. Weaker and faster low. All in all the kuch range for my area has not changed that much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Wow, that 18z GFS run is a hard blow. Luckily, its only one run, so hopefully it was a one off, bad run and not the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, paweather said: All in all the kuch range for my area has not changed that much. State College went from having Nick Saban as their coach to having James Franklin as to 12Z accums vs 18Z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Helps you guys a ton. I just bounced between some maps and it is weaker. Just a little worried in what it does from hour 96 to 102. That is quite the transfer. It's up to you to keep us in the game. No illegal substutions.. we can't afford a penalty now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z and 18z GFS couldn't be much more different. Maybe some people "get" the same amount of snow, but the storm's evolution is vastly different. And different in a positive way for us SE folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: It's up to you to keep us in the game. No illegal substutions.. we can't afford a penalty now. I cannot keep up with the bouncing ball (models). The GFS keeps rotating between a stronger low that finds a weakness and cuts to KY or OH to its current iteration of a low getting to the SE Coast then jumping into the DelMarVa with a solid but quick moving wall of moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I cannot keep up with the bouncing ball (models). The GFS keeps rotating between a stronger low that finds a weakness and cuts to KY or OH to its current iteration of a low getting to the SE Coast then jumping into the DelMarVa with a solid but quick moving wall of moisture. What's your take on the GFS with its handling here? Are the other models more consistent, relatively speaking? I know consistency isn't accuracy, but jumping around can't be too positive either. How has the GFS been at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 12z and 18z GFS couldn't be much more different. Maybe some people "get" the same amount of snow, but the storm's evolution is vastly different. And different in a positive way for us SE folks. Yep still same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 12z and 18z GFS couldn't be much more different. Maybe some people "get" the same amount of snow, but the storm's evolution is vastly different. And different in a positive way for us SE folks. Hard to trust any model evolution currently. I like the 18z better but it was am odd evolution compared to 12z. Weaker system, smaller area of precip but more QPF in a good spot for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 24 minutes ago, Ahoff said: What's your take on the GFS with its handling here? Are the other models more consistent, relatively speaking? I know consistency isn't accuracy, but jumping around can't be too positive either. How has the GFS been at this range? For this Jan 6th chance, the Euro was fairly consistent recently until today when it had some back tracking. The GFS has been consistently driving a presence up into the Ohio Valley in different iterations over the past 36 hours except the 12Z Jan 1 run. This 18Z run is quite different than even the 12Z run yesterday. I think as of now, the front piece of energy (with the back being the cutter next week) is losing it ummph and changing the eventual results on the fly. The high and 50/50 to our North is pushing it more on this 18Z run. 24 hours ago, the GFS had a 998 low in the Ohio Valley transferring to a sub 990 low on the coast. On the 18Z GFS today it never gets below 999 and actually came damn close to leaving us all high and dry. And, of course, it is moving MUCH faster. 12-18 hours faster. I am not able to guess what the result will be beyond saying all options seem on the board still. That is a cop out answer, sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We need Wednesday night/Thursday morning’s system to sweep through to get a definitive setup picture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: For this Jan 6th chance, the Euro was fairly consistent recently until today when it had some back tracking. The GFS has been consistently driving a presence up into the Ohio Valley in different iterations over the past 36 hours except the 12Z Jan 1 run. This 18Z run is quite different than even the 12Z run yesterday. I think as of now, the front piece of energy (with the back being the cutter next week) is losing it ummph and changing the eventual results on the fly. The high and 50/50 to our North is pushing it more on this 18Z run. 24 hours ago, the GFS had a 998 low in the Ohio Valley transferring to a sub 990 low on the coast. On the 18Z GFS today it never gets below 999 and actually came damn close to leaving us all high and dry. And, of course, it is moving MUCH faster. 12-18 hours faster. I am not able to guess what the result will be beyond saying all options seem on the board still. That is a cop out answer, sorry. That’s okay. I appreciate the response. Just looking for a glimmer of hope out of that awful run, lol. Still, it was just one run. I’m looking for just a few inches, hopefully that’s still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, canderson said: We need Wednesday night/Thursday morning’s system to seep through to get a definitive setup picture. 18Z Yesterday first below then 18Z today. Both the Jan 4th low, now NE of Canada on these shots, and the highest area of pressure are displaced a little North on today's run vs. yesterday...and Northern Stream Kicker is closer than it was yesterday. Faster and less wound-up system for our area is somehow the result. Maybe the kicker is the key here, not sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: That’s okay. I appreciate the response. Just looking for a glimmer of hope out of that awful run, lol. Still, it was just one run. I’m looking for just a few inches, hopefully that’s still on the table. You guys are in the game as much as we are at this point. Both the CMC and EC showed what you need which is the primary getting into the TN or OH Valley, so you have moisture around. If the Primary does a scoot out to our South, Western PA will not be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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