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Central PA Winter 23/24


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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

NAM AT RANGE WARNING----NAM AT RANGE WARNING

 

At 84 hours the SLP is on the cusp of the Gulf near New Orleans in a very similar position as the 12Z CMC.    The approaching High is displaced a bit East vs, the CMC.  Looking at 500H it is going to go North East in some manner but would be guess work to suggest how. 

NAM at range warning. You serious? LOL. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have to do something to counteract the silly comments I get about not using guidance past a certain hour....this after watching the big boys flip and flop today. 

Lots of flip and flops today but that is all the time. I am still liking the chances of a quick 4-8" type storm. Power El Nino like. :snowman:

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CTP:

The operational GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models continue to
show a similar story - isentropic ascent ahead of the storm
system moving into the region by Saturday morning and becoming
most vigorous by Sat afternoon into early Sat evening. By 00z
Sunday, the dominant forcing transitions from isentropic ascent
to fgen banding on the back side of the low, within a paired
right entrance / left exit region of the upper jet. This
scenario would result in several inches of snow across central
PA. However, it is worth noting that there are still some
ensemble members that keep most of the precip to the east,
resulting in little to no snow accumulation for central PA. The
range of possibilities shown by the NBM 10th and 90th
percentiles ranges from a coating to 1 inch in the best case to
over 1 foot of snow in some spots in the worst case scenario.

There will be a period of dry weather later Sunday through
Monday night before the next storm system approaches late Monday
night. This storm looks to be stronger than the weekend storm,
but also has the potential to track to our west, ultimately
putting is in the warm sector after a period of cold air
damming. In that case, there could be a several hour period of
snow before a mix with and changeover to rain. However, it is
much too early for details, as there is plenty of time for the
track of this system to change. The presence of cold air ahead
of this system will also depend and how much snowpack is left
behind from the weekend storm.
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18Z GFS back to a Miller A/almost Southern slider but does hammer the LSV.  Little to no OH Valley Prescence.   It almost escaped...close call.   Northern PA mostly left.  Fast mover so only 4-8" despite some good rates.    The changes are fairly drastic from 12Z.  No time to dissect, sure someone will do it. 

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18Z GFS back to a Miller A/almost Southern slider but does hammer the LSV.  Little to no OH Valley Prescence.   It almost escaped...close call.   Northern PA mostly left.  Fast mover so only 4-8" despite some good rates.    The changes are fairly drastic from 12Z.  No time to dissect, sure someone will do it. 

Good run


.
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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I hope you are joking.  LOL.  

Check out this compare from 12 to 18Z.  12 has a dying primary/ULL in Ohio.  18 has little precip in far SW PA because there was little prescence in the Oh Valley.  Weaker and faster low. 

 

image.png.b16244a9fc8654b87d2e2d2153eb0a08.png

 

 

image.thumb.png.a4f46dae16b2bc959400a9fbccd866d4.png

 

All in all the kuch range for my area has not changed that much.

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6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

It's up to you to keep us in the game. No illegal substutions.. we can't afford a penalty now.

I cannot keep up with the bouncing ball (models).    The GFS keeps rotating between a stronger low that finds a weakness and cuts to KY or OH to its current iteration of a low getting to the SE Coast then jumping into the DelMarVa with a solid but quick moving wall of moisture.  

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I cannot keep up with the bouncing ball (models).    The GFS keeps rotating between a stronger low that finds a weakness and cuts to KY or OH to its current iteration of a low getting to the SE Coast then jumping into the DelMarVa with a solid but quick moving wall of moisture.  

What's your take on the GFS with its handling here?  Are the other models more consistent, relatively speaking?  I know consistency isn't accuracy, but jumping around can't be too positive either.

How has the GFS been at this range?

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29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

12z and 18z GFS couldn't be much more different. Maybe some people "get" the same amount of snow, but the storm's evolution is vastly different. And different in a positive way for us SE folks.

Hard to trust any model evolution currently.  I like the 18z better but it was am odd evolution compared to 12z.

Weaker system,  smaller area of precip but more QPF in a good spot for us

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24 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

What's your take on the GFS with its handling here?  Are the other models more consistent, relatively speaking?  I know consistency isn't accuracy, but jumping around can't be too positive either.

How has the GFS been at this range?

For this Jan 6th chance, the Euro was fairly consistent recently until today when it had some back tracking.  The GFS has been consistently driving a presence up into the Ohio Valley in different iterations over the past 36 hours except the 12Z Jan 1 run.  This 18Z run is quite different than even the 12Z run yesterday.    I think as of now, the front piece of energy (with the back being the cutter next week) is losing it ummph and changing the eventual results on the fly.   The high and 50/50 to our North is pushing it more on this 18Z run.   24 hours ago, the GFS had a 998 low in the Ohio Valley transferring to a sub 990 low on the coast.  On the 18Z GFS today it never gets below 999 and actually came damn close to leaving us all high and dry.   And, of course, it is moving MUCH faster.  12-18 hours faster. 

I am not able to guess what the result will be beyond saying all options seem on the board still.  That is a cop out answer, sorry.  

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

For this Jan 6th chance, the Euro was fairly consistent recently until today when it had some back tracking.  The GFS has been consistently driving a presence up into the Ohio Valley in different iterations over the past 36 hours except the 12Z Jan 1 run.  This 18Z run is quite different than even the 12Z run yesterday.    I think as of now, the front piece of energy (with the back being the cutter next week) is losing it ummph and changing the eventual results on the fly.   The high and 50/50 to our North is pushing it more on this 18Z run.   24 hours ago, the GFS had a 998 low in the Ohio Valley transferring to a sub 990 low on the coast.  On the 18Z GFS today it never gets below 999 and actually came damn close to leaving us all high and dry.   And, of course, it is moving MUCH faster.  12-18 hours faster. 

I am not able to guess what the result will be beyond saying all options seem on the board still.  That is a cop out answer, sorry.  

That’s okay.  I appreciate the response.  Just looking for a glimmer of hope out of that awful run, lol.  Still, it was just one run.  I’m looking for just a few inches, hopefully that’s still on the table.

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9 minutes ago, canderson said:

We need Wednesday night/Thursday morning’s system to seep through to get a definitive setup picture. 

18Z Yesterday first below then 18Z today.  Both the Jan 4th low, now NE of Canada on these shots, and the highest area of pressure are displaced a little North on today's run vs. yesterday...and Northern Stream Kicker is closer than it was yesterday.  Faster and less wound-up system for our area is somehow the result.  Maybe the kicker is the key here, not sure.     

image.png.b2cb3d66eecff3448d81d929c331a81c.png

 

image.thumb.png.bd7131e8a68c76bf29f58f8306baafa8.png

 

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1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

That’s okay.  I appreciate the response.  Just looking for a glimmer of hope out of that awful run, lol.  Still, it was just one run.  I’m looking for just a few inches, hopefully that’s still on the table.

You guys are in the game as much as we are at this point.  Both the CMC and EC showed what you need which is the primary getting into the TN or OH Valley, so you have moisture around.  If the Primary does a scoot out to our South, Western PA will not be happy. 

 

 

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