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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have seen other talking about speeding things up. EC is snowing here (at least virga) around lunch on Sat now.   A jump up of probably 3-4 hours. 

That good because it's moving into the cold dome and gets out fast before the warm air can be drawn in.

I still think we're fine.

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12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Look at that Kuch. MAG is the big winner if that verifies.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

We’ll see haha. This system has been trending a bit faster both in onset time (mid-late afternoon Sat) and certainly in duration as it’s looking more like a 10-12hr event now. So I think if there’s an area of double digit amounts to be had with this, it’s likely going to be from getting >10-1 ratios. C-PA should see the best zone of 700mb lift and temps  at that level for the event over the subforum are generally -6 to -8ºC. Those are okay numbers but not in the ideal range for the best snow crystal growth. There’s sufficient cold for the snowstorm but not for a high ratio event (like another 1/7 storm from way back). So I think 12-13 to 1 is probably the high end for ratios, which is only average for a snow event this time of the year in C-PA. These Gulf storms usually have the smaller flakes that make for a dense snowpack as well. 

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16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fast movement also reduces the amount of warm air off the ocean can get involved, so there's that.

Good point.  Axis is NE enough to thwart cookin us too much. 

Were trough axis deeper, then we'd have more to worry about (other than Euro just shartin da bed a bit).  

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That good because it's moving into the cold dome and gets out fast before the warm air can be drawn in.

I still think we're fine.

I have to travel Saturday so I have other interests I am watching as well.  This has gone from an overnight thing to at least half it it during the day here. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

SE LSV mixes on the Pivotal panels.  Cannot blame TT for that one.   It is after the big thump but surely holds down totals some. 

I know that you know what I'm about to say: :)

I have been following all of these southern storms all fall. I invest in all weather. A lot of these storms have ended up hundreds of miles farther N/NW than anticipated 4-5 days out. And it's only Tuesday- next storm is still 4 days out. What happened previously does not guarantee anything with our next storm...but there is a real "chance" that this could end up skunking us. Which is precisely why I wanted those stupid snow maps showing pretty colors over VA. The inevitable move north was coming. And I fear, based on recent and distant history that this isn't done moving north/west.

 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

The biggest difference in the Euro 0z vs 12z is by far the QPF. A difference of 0.5”+ in the Sus Valley. 

image.thumb.png.ca19ffa7817dcaefe2b21ca9e0d5c137.png

Low is in a great spot, just need to slow it down a bit & ramp the precip back up.

4 days to go, but I would be good with a region wide 5 to 10 of snow.

IMG_3981.png

IMG_3982.png

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have to travel Saturday so I have other interests I am watching as well.  This has gone from an overnight thing to at least half it it during the day here. 

I have an MRI scheduled in York at 7am. 24 hours ago I wasn't even concerned about the start time, now I am hoping to be back in Hanover sippin whiskey before the first flakes fall...

 

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To further on the 12z Euro EPS 

3”+ probs

image.thumb.png.be8eaeb15f01fea21e96d5914c412c60.png

 

6+ probs

image.thumb.png.14198be9a64168811ca7c9878e8505e0.png

Edit to note that the 12”+ probs are completely non-existent (no ensemble member showing 12+), so the ensemble overall has definitely picked up on the faster motion of this storm. 

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14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

To further on the 12z Euro EPS 

3”+ probs

image.thumb.png.be8eaeb15f01fea21e96d5914c412c60.png

 

6+ probs

Maybe

Edit to note that the 12”+ probs are completely non-existent (no ensemble member showing 12+), so the ensemble overall has definitely picked up on the faster motion of this storm. 

Maybe more like a 3-6 4-8 storm for us. Outside of this one model run. 18z up in the next couple of hours. 

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NAM AT RANGE WARNING----NAM AT RANGE WARNING

 

At 84 hours the SLP is on the cusp of the Gulf near New Orleans in a very similar position as the 12Z CMC.    The approaching High is displaced a bit East vs, the CMC.  Looking at 500H it is going to go North East in some manner but would be guess work to suggest how. 

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