mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I have seen other talking about speeding things up. EC is snowing here (at least virga) around lunch on Sat now. A jump up of probably 3-4 hours. That good because it's moving into the cold dome and gets out fast before the warm air can be drawn in. I still think we're fine. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: 0z Euro Run 12 Z hot off the press: mess FYP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Look at that Kuch. MAG is the big winner if that verifies. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk We’ll see haha. This system has been trending a bit faster both in onset time (mid-late afternoon Sat) and certainly in duration as it’s looking more like a 10-12hr event now. So I think if there’s an area of double digit amounts to be had with this, it’s likely going to be from getting >10-1 ratios. C-PA should see the best zone of 700mb lift and temps at that level for the event over the subforum are generally -6 to -8ºC. Those are okay numbers but not in the ideal range for the best snow crystal growth. There’s sufficient cold for the snowstorm but not for a high ratio event (like another 1/7 storm from way back). So I think 12-13 to 1 is probably the high end for ratios, which is only average for a snow event this time of the year in C-PA. These Gulf storms usually have the smaller flakes that make for a dense snowpack as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fast movement also reduces the amount of warm air off the ocean can get involved, so there's that. Good point. Axis is NE enough to thwart cookin us too much. Were trough axis deeper, then we'd have more to worry about (other than Euro just shartin da bed a bit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That good because it's moving into the cold dome and gets out fast before the warm air can be drawn in. I still think we're fine. I have to travel Saturday so I have other interests I am watching as well. This has gone from an overnight thing to at least half it it during the day here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: SE LSV mixes on the Pivotal panels. Cannot blame TT for that one. It is after the big thump but surely holds down totals some. I know that you know what I'm about to say: I have been following all of these southern storms all fall. I invest in all weather. A lot of these storms have ended up hundreds of miles farther N/NW than anticipated 4-5 days out. And it's only Tuesday- next storm is still 4 days out. What happened previously does not guarantee anything with our next storm...but there is a real "chance" that this could end up skunking us. Which is precisely why I wanted those stupid snow maps showing pretty colors over VA. The inevitable move north was coming. And I fear, based on recent and distant history that this isn't done moving north/west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The biggest difference in the Euro 12z vs 0z is by far the total QPF. A difference of 0.5”+ (less) in the Sus Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: The biggest difference in the Euro 0z vs 12z is by far the QPF. A difference of 0.5”+ in the Sus Valley. Low is in a great spot, just need to slow it down a bit & ramp the precip back up. 4 days to go, but I would be good with a region wide 5 to 10 of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I have to travel Saturday so I have other interests I am watching as well. This has gone from an overnight thing to at least half it it during the day here. I have an MRI scheduled in York at 7am. 24 hours ago I wasn't even concerned about the start time, now I am hoping to be back in Hanover sippin whiskey before the first flakes fall... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Low is in a great spot, just need to slow it down a bit & ramp the precip back up. 4 days to go, but I would be good with a region wide 5 to 10 of snow. Let's do this one Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Welp, day 10 Euro has some big potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Tough Loss @candersonI was rooting for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Geps a whole lot better than 0z run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, mitchnick said: Geps a whole lot better than 0z run Is the EPS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Geps a whole lot better than 0z run A PA Plower. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Is the EPS out yet? Just out and a touch better than 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, mitchnick said: Just out and a touch better than 6z. thats good to see. Euro only out to 90 for me, so I'm relying on all of the pbp's . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Welp, day 10 Euro has some big potential. good. look forward to seeing it in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 All this talk about Saturday. It's fn cold out today. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 To further on the 12z Euro EPS 3”+ probs 6+ probs Edit to note that the 12”+ probs are completely non-existent (no ensemble member showing 12+), so the ensemble overall has definitely picked up on the faster motion of this storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: To further on the 12z Euro EPS 3”+ probs 6+ probs Maybe Edit to note that the 12”+ probs are completely non-existent (no ensemble member showing 12+), so the ensemble overall has definitely picked up on the faster motion of this storm. Maybe more like a 3-6 4-8 storm for us. Outside of this one model run. 18z up in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 All I can say from 2,300 miles away is that I'm rooting for you guys. We rain on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. I guess that's your weekend storm. I really hope you all get smoked with this one! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 36 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Welp, day 10 Euro has some big potential. Is that the potential triple phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Is that the potential triple phaser Well, I wasn't thinking that big. Ensembles don't look so hot anyway, so it'll probably be gone next operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, paweather said: Yep this is really becoming a PA snowstorm. Intense and quick. Like a honeymoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, paweather said: Tough Loss @candersonI was rooting for them. I was not ok last night … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Like a honeymoon. Wam bam thank you ccb band ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The snow is falling into a champagne-glass-shaped jacuzzi.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 27 minutes ago, canderson said: I was not ok last night … Better than State College even a 12 team playoff we will likely be out of with Franklin our coach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 NAM AT RANGE WARNING----NAM AT RANGE WARNING At 84 hours the SLP is on the cusp of the Gulf near New Orleans in a very similar position as the 12Z CMC. The approaching High is displaced a bit East vs, the CMC. Looking at 500H it is going to go North East in some manner but would be guess work to suggest how. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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