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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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If you asked me for an early forecast TODAY, I'd say 4-8" storm for most. Best case would be 6-10". Subject to change as we get closer obviously. 
No. Not subject to change. You think they went to the Oracle of Delphi for "forecast subject to change?" They would have thrown that bitch from the top of Olympus.

Make you call. Do it now.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

No. Not subject to change. You think they went to the Oracle of Delphi for "forecast subject to change?" They would have thrown that bitch from the top of Olympus.

Make you call. Do it now.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Fear is my friend. I'll take the cliff option 

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21 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Too close for comfort down here with 4 days left to go. For MBY I’d like to see the stronger primary/less confluence trend reverse tonight or tomorrow or we’re in trouble.

Yep, but this is par for the normal course of play down here.  Only thing I'd add to your thoughts is that while stronger primary can kill thermals, if close enough temp wise qpf can overcome marginal temps.  Not saying thats the case but something to ponder.

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27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The GFS does drop warning level snows before any change over so not terrible...to clarify.  Just not a strictly snow system with the proximity of the vort.   Almost no snow for MA cities. 

 

image.thumb.png.0a4076e1a079812e7a1bf39507e19bfc.png

@Bubbler86You're speaking about a changeover (although not precisely where), but I'll assume SE LSV / Lanco.  However, none of my precip-type maps show any changeover anywhere in this region for any period of this storm.  Please specify where/what you meant regarding said changeover.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I charge to email people so might be a wash.  I am like an attorney without the law degree. 

Believe  me, there are a lot of attorneys seemingly without a law degree, so you'll fit right in.

P.s. That really is a great odea charging people for emails. I'm in.

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My main takeaways/concerns for this event are as follows:

  • The speed of the system.  She's a mover.  Not going to allow for huge totals.
  • With the tightness of that Low track to our south, I continue to be concerned about some warm air intrusion for those of us along the southern tier.  Typical for us, and I do think we'll overcome it for the most part, but always the fly in the ointment.
  • The level of beer stock in my fridge -- too low.

Overall though, very pleased to have what looks like a solid forum-wide event in the cards.  I'm thinking 4-8" for most, with some 12" lollipops.  Onward.

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