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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Out in fantasy land, the 6z GFS has another Winter storm chance on the 15th.

Storms & rumors of storms..buckle up!

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This is a storm I’m wondering about.  Seems there’s some expectation that hotter air funnels in around the 16th.  Could this storm be the true kicker to get it in and stick that pattern here for a while?  Too early to tell, but interesting.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

A thread has been opened on the MA board so we will know more at 12Z.  Quite often, if it is to fail, it will happen now. 

The thread was started and then the 6z EPS came out.

There are a few posters in there that are going to have their panic room full of weenies prior to the 12z suite...

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4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

The thread was started and then the 6z EPS came out.

There are a few posters in there that are going to have their panic room full of weenies prior to the 12z suite...

I scanned over the posts and saw the Euro moved more toward a Canadian like solution after having been so consistent the last few days.  Cannot see all the maps but guessing we are still decent here though hopefully not a trend. 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I scanned over the posts and saw the Euro moved more toward a Canadian like solution after having been so consistent the last few days.  Cannot see all the maps but guessing we are still decent here though hopefully not a trend. 

image.jpeg.f2b0605ba22fb450e3997d06705de260.jpegimage.jpeg.1d179b0351d44e292dd7da941c92ec10.jpeg

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if anybody looks at it, but Pivotal offers the "NWS Blend of Midels," which is a combo of models. It's basically an ensemble type product using operational models, which makes more sense theoretically since they have better resolution than ensemble suites.  Anyway, here's the link. It has been gradually increasing snow totals in case you were wondering.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2024010207&fh=11&r=us_state_pa&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Been wanting to check that out for some time but it's only available to premium subscribers and I'm too cheap ha.

 

1 hour ago, CoralRed said:

Happy New Year, one and all, from Williamsport. I looked back to see if anyone else put this up and it looks like they haven't. As all eyes are looking ahead for snow, I am going to take us back a second to 2023 heat records. These are booby prizes of course in a warming world that we all wish weren't getting hotter, but still, we have two winners. Funny to think Williamsport hit its record for most snow of 25" just a few years ago on Dec. 16-17 2020. NWS said:

2033 was the warmest year on record in Williamsport, and tied for the second warmest in Harrisburg.

          RECORD ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE STATISTICS

                    VALUE    YEAR
Harrisburg (MDT)     56.9    2021   (2023 & 2020 = 56.7)
Williamsport (IPT)   53.9    2023   (Supplants 2012 (53.8))

11 of the top 13 warmest years on record have occurred since 1998 at Harrisburg (134 full years of continuous records).
9 of the top 13 warmest years on record have happened at Williamsport (128 full years) since 1998.

86 (of the possible 366) daily max temp records at Harrisburg have occurred since 2000, while only 35 min temp records have occurred in that same time period. Similarly for Williamsport,there are 83 daily max temp records on the books from the 2000s, while there are only 34 min temp records since 1/1/2000.

In 2023: Harrisburg has set/tied 6 daily max temp records in 2023, and no min temp records. Williamsport very similar, scoring 4 daily max temp records, 

You know it's funny, NOAA's NOW Data page shows 2023 and 2021 being tied with an annual mean temp of 56.7 but 2020 only being 56.6.  I wonder where the discrepancy is coming in hmmmmmm.

2021 34.5 32.8 46.1 55.3 63.1 75.5 77.6 78.3 69.8 62.4 43.3 41.9 56.7
2023 39.7 40.8 43.0 57.0 61.5 70.3 78.5 75.5 69.2 59.0 44.7 41.1 56.7
2020 36.9 39.2 47.7 49.6 60.2 73.4 82.2 78.2 67.7 57.8 49.9 36.9 56.6
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The only difference up here in PA is a weaker storm with .1" less qpf on the mean. No rain/sleet/snow issues on the mean. Less qpf dropped snowfall map by an inch or less depending on your exact location. Boost the qpf, and we're right back to 0z run.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

The only difference up here in PA is a weaker storm with .1" less qpf on the mean. No rain/sleet/snow issues on the mean. Less qpf dropped snowfall map by an inch or less depending on your exact location. Boost the qpf, and we're right back to 0z run.

I figured the mean would not be different.   Not ideal if the Euro starts trending away from its previous consistent solution. 

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Most spots across the county fell below freezing either last night or overnight today. Our first below freezing reading since December 23rd. The first week of the new year should be mainly dry through Friday and seasonably chilly. The coldest day will be Friday when temps may struggle to pass freezing in some of the higher spots in the county.
Records for today: High 62 (2000) / Low minus 7 (1899) / Rain 2.09" (1948) / Snow 9.0" (1925)
image.png.ac58ffd32b64324bb16c830597d0be3e.png
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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I figured the mean would not be different.   Not ideal if the Euro starts trending away from its previous consistent solution. 

6z Euro looked a lot more like the CMC. Its been a while IIRC since the CMC scored a coup... 

Personally I think a lot of the added hysteria (not that there isn't any normally) is due to the bad streak of winters, dating back to 2016 and prior. I think we all have a little PTSD when it comes to that. 

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Just now, Wxdavis5784 said:

6z Euro looked a lot more like the CMC. Its been a while IIRC since the CMC scored a coup... 

Personally I think a lot of the added hysteria (not that there isn't any normally) is due to the bad streak of winters, dating back to 2016 and prior. I think we all have a little PTSD when it comes to that. 

The CMC has done really well with extreme low temps but agree that otherwise it usually caves.  There is also the issue (faced here yesterday) were some people take model reading as a forecast when others know it is just a discussion of the current prog.   Someone on here said WGAL is sounding the sirens this AM, I did not hear it, but that will get the public humming and set up the need for results or more PTSD will ensue.   

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The CMC has done really well with extreme low temps but agree that otherwise it usually caves.  There is also the issue (faced here yesterday) were some people take model reading as a forecast when others know it is just a discussion of the current prog.   Someone on here said WGAL is sounding the sirens this AM, I did not hear it, but that will get the public humming and set up the need for results or more PTSD will ensue.   

WGAL certainly mentioned potential significant snowfall this morning. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

CTP thinks we are in play!

Saturday
Snow likely after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night
Snow. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Sunday
Snow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

I'm still a mix for Saturday night and Sunday. They sometimes treat my area as the bastid child being so close to MD and lumping our forecast with Lwx's northern MD forecasts, or so it seems.

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I could have used the storm coming a day later. My oldest has a wrasslin tournament in Houtzdale on Saturday that will absolutely zero chance of being postponed.

Saturday
Snow likely after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm still a mix for Saturday night and Sunday. They sometimes treat my area as the bastid child being so close to MD and lumping our forecast with Lwx's northern MD forecasts, or so it seems.

Mine says snow on the southside of town.

 

image.thumb.jpeg.4fed10d9945379e4af4bb9cb0405a720.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon a big hit for us again.

nooner extrapolation of Z German model

1.slp slightly weaker - likely not as good for CTP qpf wise,

2. a bit slower

3. a tad colder at surface (see below) but later panels really close for LSV and show a touch warmer for Lanco ish 

Overall, still in the game, but nerves of steel need to come outta the closet for some of us SE'rs.  The old saying you gotta smell the rain for the best snows comes to mind.  I'd be smellin it.  ESE winds in next panels always scare down here.  Its just one run w/ many many more left.  Nice to see all the same. 

6z

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12z

icon_T2m_contour_neus_36.png

 

 

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