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Central PA Winter 23/24


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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That's probably the most realistic part of that map.

Well, it is certain to change 6 hours from now.  So, for the moment, I can reminisce back to 2016 and 2010.  Meanwhile DC went from 15" down to 5".  I feel for them. 

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, it is certain to change 6 hours from now.  So, for the moment, I can reminisce back to 2016 and 2010.  Meanwhile DC went from 15" down to 5".  I feel for them. 

Agree with you. I just meant that your area down through South Mountain typically jack with a storm track as depicted currently.

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Looking ahead to the Tuesday the 9th storm, the chance of front end snow is back on the 6z GFS even into the LSV before the change to rain.

Heavy front end snow this run for western & northern CTP with the 9th event on the GFS.

The snow map is just for the 24 hrs on the 9th into 10th.

IMG_3963.png

IMG_3964.png

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Happy New Year, one and all, from Williamsport. I looked back to see if anyone else put this up and it looks like they haven't. As all eyes are looking ahead for snow, I am going to take us back a second to 2023 heat records. These are booby prizes of course in a warming world that we all wish weren't getting hotter, but still, we have two winners. Funny to think Williamsport hit its record for most snow of 25" just a few years ago on Dec. 16-17 2020. NWS said:

2033 was the warmest year on record in Williamsport, and tied for the second warmest in Harrisburg.

          RECORD ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE STATISTICS

                    VALUE    YEAR
Harrisburg (MDT)     56.9    2021   (2023 & 2020 = 56.7)
Williamsport (IPT)   53.9    2023   (Supplants 2012 (53.8))

11 of the top 13 warmest years on record have occurred since 1998 at Harrisburg (134 full years of continuous records).
9 of the top 13 warmest years on record have happened at Williamsport (128 full years) since 1998.

86 (of the possible 366) daily max temp records at Harrisburg have occurred since 2000, while only 35 min temp records have occurred in that same time period. Similarly for Williamsport,there are 83 daily max temp records on the books from the 2000s, while there are only 34 min temp records since 1/1/2000.

In 2023: Harrisburg has set/tied 6 daily max temp records in 2023, and no min temp records. Williamsport very similar, scoring 4 daily max temp records, 
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Don't know if anybody looks at it, but Pivotal offers the "NWS Blend of Midels," which is a combo of models. It's basically an ensemble type product using operational models, which makes more sense theoretically since they have better resolution than ensemble suites.  Anyway, here's the link. It has been gradually increasing snow totals in case you were wondering.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2024010207&fh=11&r=us_state_pa&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

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3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 33 and .02” of rain. Starting to get that giddy feeling about this weekend, can feel it in my loins. I know I’m not alone. 

A thread has been opened on the MA board so we will know more at 12Z.  Quite often, if it is to fail, it will happen now. 

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56 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If you want to treat yourself, go take a look at the 6z GFS total snow map through day 16…. 

As we've been suggesting #1 sorta sets the table for #2 and yeah #2 looks a touch better.  Might not lose all of our precious snowpack.  If we do, #3 looks to freshen it up (verbatim).

parsing over GFS progression, it has come notably further S w/ #2, IMO the -NAO should help to keep this from cutting, so I'm gonna believe what the 6z is showing for that reason. 

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