paweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I am all about snow cover. Normally, I would prefer 4" of snow that lasted 2 weeks than 12" of snow that was gone in 3-5 days. These aren't normal times. I haven't shoveled in 2 years. If we get 6-12" of snow that is completely washed away a few days later, so be it. I'll be thrilled to put up a big crooked number. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, NEPA MT TOP said: People take a deep breadth and relax, not long ago some here proclaimed no snow for next 2 weeks; then models changed and snow , one after another, now 1 model comes out says cutter and so many here throw in the towel; all that rain, thought we'd have long run of cold and snow. Will you all stop living and dying by each model and especially those almost 2 weeks away. Look beyond the model; see what is causing that, you just might find something that doesn't look right, and the next day a completely different outcome. Chill out. PBP's are not throwing in the towel. It is part of careers for some on here and a fun hobby for others. The NWS does the same thing with their AFD's several times a day. Those proclamations of no snow for 2 weeks occurred 1-2 weeks ago. Sounds like for the LSV they were spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I am all about snow cover. Normally, I would prefer 4" of snow that lasted 2 weeks than 12" of snow that was gone in 3-5 days. These aren't normal times. I haven't shoveled in 2 years. If we get 6-12" of snow that is completely washed away a few days later, so be it. I'll be thrilled to put up a big crooked number. Agree, but you don't need snow to shovel...just read my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, NEPA MT TOP said: People take a deep breadth and relax, not long ago some here proclaimed no snow for next 2 weeks; then models changed and snow , one after another, now 1 model comes out says cutter and so many here throw in the towel; all that rain, thought we'd have long run of cold and snow. Will you all stop living and dying by each model and especially those almost 2 weeks away. Look beyond the model; see what is causing that, you just might find something that doesn't look right, and the next day a completely different outcome. Chill out. So where exactly do I go to find this "life" you reference. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 life referenced, it did bring chuckle to me, very good, my best answer; try your inner self, ask what if life is really important, what really matters. Hopefully those answers won't be too hard to find. Sorry if I became too philosophical. We will make it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, NEPA MT TOP said: life referenced, it did bring chuckle to me, very good, my best answer; try your inner self, ask what if life is really important, what really matters. Hopefully those answers won't be too hard to find. Sorry if I became too philosophical. We will make it through. I was just kidding, hence the lol. No, after retiring last year from 40 years as a lawyer in MD, I'm pretty content with being brain dead looking at weather models during the first decent Niño in 8 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 CTP seems fairly confident for a storm nearly a week away. Of course this is subject to change, but seeing likely and 70% chance this far out is intriguing. For Tamaqua: Saturday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, Voyager said: CTP seems fairly confident for a storm nearly a week away. Of course this is subject to change, but seeing likely and 70% chance this far out is intriguing. For Tamaqua: Saturday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. They have me as snow on Saturday after 1pm and then rain and snow Saturday night and Sunday. I would make a snarky remark but don't want to jinx myself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I'm hoping to retire at the end of this year, we're in the same age group. Life is too short and it goes fast, even though will believe that's true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Howdy everyone 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Howdy everyone Great to see you, any early thoughts for the LSV and CSV area? Storm, no Storm, Mix, Rain, or too early Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Howdy everyone This only means good things shall happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Porsche said: Great to see you, any early thoughts for the LSV and CSV area? Storm, no Storm, Mix, Rain, or too early Thank you. Thanks! It feels great to be back on the east coast and I get to actually track something for my back yard again I think the trends right now are positive for the LSV and south-central PA area. I would imagine the favorable spots along the Mason Dixon up to the turnpike are in a good area for the time being. Too early to talk totals, but the key will be the storm not going too far south and the confluence to the north doesn’t thwart latitude gain. Analogs right now are pretty solid for the region, so I like where you guys sit at this point. I’ll come by and add some insight as we approach. Perhaps a snow map is in order!! Been awhile since I did one for the subforum. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Thanks! It feels great to be back on the east coast and I get to actually track something for my back yard again I think the trends right now are positive for the LSV and south-central PA area. I would imagine the favorable spots along the Mason Dixon up to the turnpike are in a good area for the time being. Too early to talk totals, but the key will be the storm not going too far south and the confluence to the north doesn’t thwart latitude gain. Analogs right now are pretty solid for the region, so I like where you guys sit at this point. I’ll come by and add some insight as we approach. Perhaps a snow map is in order!! Been awhile since I did one for the subforum. Let’s see one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Let’s see one I think it’s too early for that, although I’d love to see one later in the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Let’s see one Too early now, but later this week I’ll drum one up so long as things look solid! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Thanks @MillvilleWx, your thoughts and time are always appreciated! Agreed it's too early for any maps, but have to like the way things are looking at least right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I'd better not get shafted lolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18z Eps snowfall. Really close to 12z. Slight reduction due to slight reduction in qpf. System behind it is getting it out of here by 12z Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18z Eps snowfall. Really close to 12z. Slight reduction due to slight reduction in qpf. System behind it is getting it out of here by 12z Sunday. Slight tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Slight tick south . Yes. Better for ratios, which won't show up on 10:1 ensemble maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The Euro Suite has been more consistent for the good or bad unless I am forgetting some jumps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Euro Suite has been more consistent for the good or bad unless I am forgetting some jumps. Ur right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Rest up everyone, starting tomorrow we can start to over analyze the NAM! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Rest up everyone, starting tomorrow we can start to over analyze the NAM! At least the 0z is out early. The EC is the PITA at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Rest up everyone, starting tomorrow we can start to over analyze the NAM! Practice squad: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010121&fh=87&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&m=srefens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 While we wait for 0z runs, I found this CPC map to be quite interesting for the Next storm chance for the 9th/10th. They must have some confidence in the possibility of front end snow for most of CTP, especially north & west sections of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon definitely coming up to us per 108hrs maps imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Oh yeah. It's north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Hmm...look where the Icon puts the next event's slp. Coldish too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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