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Central PA Winter 23/24


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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I see people talking about consistency on the MA board but though it may have been consistent with some players, the actual ground truth of the SLP's path was anything but consistent from 12Z.  

Agree. Using snowfall maps as a gauge is a mistake...that's why I  do it, at least.:wacko2:

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1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

I’m fine with a region wide 6-12 and then if we get some rainers so be it.  It’s been too long to be picky!

 

 

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep. And another after that too.

To clarify, I am not raining on any parades just doing PBP.  But I am a bit down that the third one is a cutter too. 

 

The G suite is not buying into a long winter run as of yet.  Cold air still locked up to our north. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

 

To clarify, I am not raining on any parades just doing PBP.  But I am a bit down that the third one is a cutter too. 

 

The G suite is not buying into a long winter run as of yet.  Cold air still locked up to our north. 

After the 2nd cutter we get our chance the way the trough is aligning on the Gfs. Of course, could be wrong.

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30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

After the 2nd cutter we get our chance the way the trough is aligning on the Gfs. Of course, could be wrong.

I still think we have the chance for a front end couple of inches of snow with the mid week cutter next week before the switch to rain.

I’m not sold that the storm after the cutter will also cut. Yesterday the GFS had that as a snowstorm.

Long way to go, but this pattern is certainly loaded with potential. We won’t win them all, but this will certainly be an interesting period to track.

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I still think we have the chance for a front end couple of inches of snow with the mid week cutter next week before the switch to rain.

I’m not sold the the storm after the cutter will also cut. Yesterday the GFS had that as a snowstorm.

Long way to go, but this pattern is certainly loaded with potential. We won’t win them all, but this will certainly be an interesting period to track.

Hope so. Time to worry. Lol

On an unrelated note, the 18z Gefs snowfall map is uncannily similar to the 12z Eps. Don't recall seeing such agreement by those 2 ensemble products at this range and for such a significant snowstorm. 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_state_pa (16).png

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11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hope so. Time to worry. Lol

On an unrelated note, the 18z Gefs snowfall map is uncannily similar to the 12z Eps. Don't recall seeing such agreement by those 2 ensemble products at this range and for such a significant snowstorm. 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_state_pa (16).png

Great to see with still 5 days to go!

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I just looked at the snow for week 2 on the ensembles for the period AFTER this weekend’s event.

A couple of weeks ago @mitchnick & I were trying to will the “blue” into the LSV, but it was not budging.

So, while we may suffer a cutter, there is still good potential after this weekend.

Again, these are just snow maps for week 2, for the 9th to the 16th on the 12z GEFS & EPS.

Not bad for this range…

IMG_3949.png

IMG_3948.png

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People take a deep breadth and relax, not long ago some here proclaimed no snow for next 2 weeks; then models changed and snow , one after another, now 1 model comes out says cutter and so many here throw in the towel; all that rain, thought we'd have long run of cold and snow. Will you all stop living and dying by each model and especially those almost 2 weeks away. Look beyond the model; see what is causing that, you just might find something that doesn't look right, and the next day a completely different outcome. Chill out.

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I am all about snow cover. Normally, I would prefer 4" of snow that lasted 2 weeks than 12" of snow that was gone in 3-5 days.

These aren't normal times. I haven't shoveled in 2 years. If we get 6-12" of snow that is completely washed away a few days later, so be it. I'll be thrilled to put up a big crooked number. 

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