mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It's a lot of snow. That's all you need to know at this time. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, mitchnick said: Crushed here I see people talking about consistency on the MA board but though it may have been consistent with some players, the actual ground truth of the SLP's path was anything but consistent from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I see people talking about consistency on the MA board but though it may have been consistent with some players, the actual ground truth of the SLP's path was anything but consistent from 12Z. Agree. Using snowfall maps as a gauge is a mistake...that's why I do it, at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 For @canderson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Close to B-word. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Crushed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Close to B-word . Yep, I did not want to say it. In addition, temps never drop below 30 in the LSV which will limit blowing a bit. Above freezing in Lanco near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 IF the LSV sees over a foot of snow on the 7th, adding on 1-3" of rain 3 days later is a lot of qpf in a short period (F word.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: IF the LSV sees over a foot of snow on the 7th, adding on 1-3" of rain 3 days later is a lot of qpf in a short period (F word.) So taken with the B word, will we have an effin' B? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Actually, I find that follow-up cutter depressing as many of the models are killing any front end. Hopefully, that comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Southern stream should be plenty juiced too. QPF isn’t well modeled 100+ out, assuming that track we could see some of those higher end amounts. It’s not a slow mover but should be plenty dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, mitchnick said: Actually, I find that follow-up cutter depressing as many of the models are killing any front end. Hopefully, that comes back. It is a lot of rain falling on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is a lot of rain falling on snow. Yep. And another after that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I’m fine with a region wide 6-12 and then if we get some rainers so be it. It’s been too long to be picky! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Man as excited as I am for the weekend potential, it’s depressing thinking we may go right back to a series of wet heavy QPF bombs. Was hoping for some sustained cold and winter for an extended period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: I’m fine with a region wide 6-12 and then if we get some rainers so be it. It’s been too long to be picky! 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yep. And another after that too. To clarify, I am not raining on any parades just doing PBP. But I am a bit down that the third one is a cutter too. The G suite is not buying into a long winter run as of yet. Cold air still locked up to our north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Qpf only thru 286hrs on 18z Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: To clarify, I am not raining on any parades just doing PBP. But I am a bit down that the third one is a cutter too. The G suite is not buying into a long winter run as of yet. Cold air still locked up to our north. After the 2nd cutter we get our chance the way the trough is aligning on the Gfs. Of course, could be wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 25 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Close to B-word . Blowing & drifting…. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 31 minutes ago, paweather said: Crushed! 18z GFS is a crushing indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: After the 2nd cutter we get our chance the way the trough is aligning on the Gfs. Of course, could be wrong. Isn’t too early to worry about the one’s after the 9-10th at this point? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 IF the Gfs is close to being right, we'll have bare, rock hard frozen ground a couple of days after this. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Ahoff said: Isn’t too early to worry about the one’s after the 9-10th at this point? Weenie rule of thumb #3: Worry often and worry hard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: After the 2nd cutter we get our chance the way the trough is aligning on the Gfs. Of course, could be wrong. I still think we have the chance for a front end couple of inches of snow with the mid week cutter next week before the switch to rain. I’m not sold that the storm after the cutter will also cut. Yesterday the GFS had that as a snowstorm. Long way to go, but this pattern is certainly loaded with potential. We won’t win them all, but this will certainly be an interesting period to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I still think we have the chance for a front end couple of inches of snow with the mid week cutter next week before the switch to rain. I’m not sold the the storm after the cutter will also cut. Yesterday the GFS had that as a snowstorm. Long way to go, but this pattern is certainly loaded with potential. We won’t win them all, but this will certainly be an interesting period to track. Hope so. Time to worry. Lol On an unrelated note, the 18z Gefs snowfall map is uncannily similar to the 12z Eps. Don't recall seeing such agreement by those 2 ensemble products at this range and for such a significant snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Hope so. Time to worry. Lol On an unrelated note, the 18z Gefs snowfall map is uncannily similar to the 12z Eps. Don't recall seeing such agreement by those 2 ensemble products at this range and for such a significant snowstorm. Great to see with still 5 days to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I just looked at the snow for week 2 on the ensembles for the period AFTER this weekend’s event. A couple of weeks ago @mitchnick & I were trying to will the “blue” into the LSV, but it was not budging. So, while we may suffer a cutter, there is still good potential after this weekend. Again, these are just snow maps for week 2, for the 9th to the 16th on the 12z GEFS & EPS. Not bad for this range… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 People take a deep breadth and relax, not long ago some here proclaimed no snow for next 2 weeks; then models changed and snow , one after another, now 1 model comes out says cutter and so many here throw in the towel; all that rain, thought we'd have long run of cold and snow. Will you all stop living and dying by each model and especially those almost 2 weeks away. Look beyond the model; see what is causing that, you just might find something that doesn't look right, and the next day a completely different outcome. Chill out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I am all about snow cover. Normally, I would prefer 4" of snow that lasted 2 weeks than 12" of snow that was gone in 3-5 days. These aren't normal times. I haven't shoveled in 2 years. If we get 6-12" of snow that is completely washed away a few days later, so be it. I'll be thrilled to put up a big crooked number. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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