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Central PA Winter 23/24


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Just now, TimB said:

Merely stating what the GFS showed, and it shows that there’s still a path to complete failure for both storms.

The second storm for the 9th or 10th always has looked for days like a cutter on the ensembles & now we are barely in Op range for the Euro & Canadian.

Our best hope for the second storm is a good front ender if the High in Quebec is strong & holds a bit.

The 12z GFS says no this run, but the Canadian says we have a chance on the front end with a stronger High up north.

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30 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well the run to run consistency was fun while it lasted lol

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I'm fine w/ slp placement at 6 days out...and likely not far enough south for much comfort down here.  Hunch says it comes north like they usually do.  Once the 500's clean up a bit (12z showing 2 areas closed off) me thinks thats not likely and prob what gave the 12z southern slider look.

 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

Thank You!

Especially since we all know models will waffle.  They always do, to expect the exact same run every time is insane.

Doesn’t the GFS sometimes lose storms in this range and bring them back in a few days?  Not that it lose this storm, it’s definitely still there, just a little different.

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31 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You may be right.

 But I still would rather be in our position now then holding on to the SE edge of snowfall.

Where were we 5 days out in 1983? 1996? 2009? 2010? 2016? We were on the outside looking in. All 5 of those came north and clocked us. Sure, no guarantee that will happen this time but I'm actually more optimistic now than I've been in years.

just getting caught up and saw this.

agree 100%

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14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The second storm for the 9th or 10th always has looked for days like a cutter on the ensembles & now we are barely in Op range for the Euro & Canadian.

Our best hope for the second storm is a good front ender if the High in Quebec is strong & holds a bit.

The 12z GFS says no this run, but the Canadian says we have a chance on the front end with a stronger High up north.

IMG_3930.png

IMG_3931.png

I think we need to get closer to event 1 before getting too worried abt storm 2 (not that you are worried..hehe).

Gonna be lots of wiggle n wobbles for the next few days for #2.  verbatim 1038hp way up in land of kanooks is stoudt, but ridging out ahead is kiss of death.  Hoping that supresses as time moves on.

 

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GEFS is sick. This was posted a few minutes ago by Millville in MA and I mentioned this yesterday. Get a strong high and even if the inland runner scenario happens we’d still get thumped.

This was what I wanted to see. A better in-situ signature on the lead will work wonders for the initial precip, as well as maintaining a decent PBL profile during any storm height. There's some serious members too on that high. Saw some 1035mb or so readings when looking at the member plots. Great to see.”

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27 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Horrible take.  Please stop now.  You really give Pittsburghers a terrible name.

Also I think I specifically said if we don’t get a win I’m rooting for these guys and not those damn beltway folks.

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10 minutes ago, TimB said:

Just thought 2024 would be different.

Maybe choose to make your own 2024 different.  And also, the fact that there are quite a few opportunities and still a good signal on this one suggests it is.  Take a pill and calm down, Jesus.

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39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The second storm for the 9th or 10th always has looked for days like a cutter on the ensembles & now we are barely in Op range for the Euro & Canadian.

Our best hope for the second storm is a good front ender if the High in Quebec is strong & holds a bit.

The 12z GFS says no this run, but the Canadian says we have a chance on the front end with a stronger High up north.

IMG_3930.png

IMG_3931.png

honestly this is odd even the fact it was this far out ok. but having it down south or slightly off the coast to now it being a western lake cutter is very odd. considering this was the time frame where all the cold air was suppose to start pushing the storm south cause of suppression. I guess the cold air is now being pushed back another week if this this goes this far west? I mean this is a few thousand mile change 

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