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Central PA Winter 23/24


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it be nice to see snow for a chance other then brown dead grass lol. tho back of my mind cant but think the 7.4 earthquake in japan could change current weather patterns. Half way jk but I have read ideas for years saying earthquakes can change the weather ie the major quake in japan years back not only shortened the day. Not by much mind you but it did. I then followed this hole down other articles suggesting that the earthquake in 2011 also changed weather systems by tens of miles of where going to go. I dunno how true or untrue that is but still a interesting read when I saw it.

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12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Suppression is biggest threat now.


.

You may be right.

 But I still would rather be in our position now then holding on to the SE edge of snowfall.

Where were we 5 days out in 1983? 1996? 2009? 2010? 2016? We were on the outside looking in. All 5 of those came north and clocked us. Sure, no guarantee that will happen this time but I'm actually more optimistic now than I've been in years.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Not sure what the heck you mean….

The 0z Euro was beautiful 

IMG_3929.png

Oh right, you guys did get a win out of that one. But it’s still trending toward a rage-inducing win for DC, and when they win everyone loses.

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if this thing just pushing straight north now after all the talk about suppression. it will be like last year lol. 1 thing I always hated with models they take a storm from one run off the coast and push it to be a lakes cutter. or a storm thats way south out of no where is now to far north. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You may be right.

 But I still would rather be in our position now then holding on to the SE edge of snowfall.

Where were we 5 days out in 1983? 1996? 2009? 2010? 2016? We were on the outside looking in. All 5 of those came north and clocked us. Sure, no guarantee that will happen this time but I'm actually more optimistic now than I've been in years.

Great post!

Also, the 12z runs so far still show we have a long way to go, with lots still needing sorted out.

I agree that I like where we are sitting now. Like you said, History tells us these type of storms creep north closer to the event, so we need some room to make sure we are still in the good snow zone.

It’s nice to be back in the game! 

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1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

Typical swings at 120+ hours out and 30 model runs per day. A blend of all the 12Z guidance thus far would be fine for us.

We're still in a time frame where the ensembles prevail. 0z Euro didn't make it past NYC iirc, but the ensembles had them doing fine. 

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Just now, Ruin said:

if this thing just pushing straight north now after all the talk about suppression. it will be like last year lol. 1 thing I always hated with models they take a storm from one run off the coast and push it to be a lakes cutter. or a storm thats way south out of no where is now to far north. 

Don’t worry, the second storm on the GFS is now a Lakes cutter.

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