mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z Euro had lower heights (colder) at the end of its run of 90hrs v 0z at 96. I will be a bit surprised if the 6z Eps, not out completely, isn't cooler by a touch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Grabbed this from the MA thread...0Z EPS members locations of SLP at 7PM Saturday. About 2/3 agree with the Op in this not making an Ohio Valley Run and block/transfer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z Eps snowfall thru end of run 144 hrs. More to come afterwards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It's a weaker slp due to weaker 5h vort, but a bit colder and plenty of qpf nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z has less qpf down south but more into PA...where it counts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Do you have this same map at 0Z Sun to compare to the one above? I do not have Plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Do you have this same map at 0Z Sun to compare to the one above? I do not have Plus. Yep. Close-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yep. Close-up. Thanks, still about 2/3 favoring it sliding through the Southeast. Quite a few in the Delmarva at that point with another cluster well to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Chances of greater than 4" thru 144hrs on 6z Eps increased over 0z run at 150hrs too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I don't know if I've ever seen a map with that kind of straight line cutoff that shuts out everyone from Buffalo to Albany to Boston and North. Solid snowstorm for I-80 and south though. It happened a lot in 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looks like MDT finished the month with an average temp of 41.1 — 5.3 AN and good for 6th place all time. 56.7 for the year, tied with 2021 for warmest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 51 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Do you have any concerns with the ridge axis placement? To me, it looks a little west of our ideal location of Boise Idaho. I'm still nervous of our storm coming too far inland based on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Impressive 6Z euro output. My goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Do you have any concerns with the ridge axis placement? To me, it looks a little west of our ideal location of Boise Idaho. I'm still nervous of our storm coming too far inland based on that map. The setup is a typical to my weenie eyes, but seems to be supported by all modeling, and strongly so by ensembles. Heck, even the Ukie gives most of us 12-15" fwiw lol. Until modeling folds, I'll assume it's a go and not worry about typical rules of thumb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Do you have any concerns with the ridge axis placement? To me, it looks a little west of our ideal location of Boise Idaho. I'm still nervous of our storm coming too far inland based on that map. I am actually a small tad worried about a southern slider at this point. If the 12z euro takes it further south then we are just hanging on at that point. It is certainly not par for the course for the norm of highs weakening and storms trending north though. 9:45 nooners in Hanover. 36 and damp. Cars were covered with snow in Blue Ridge Summit. First time I have been in Hanover and not fighting traffic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Impressive 6Z euro output. My goodness. What did it show? I don't pay for premium, so I can only see the 0z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am actually a small tad worried about a southern slider at this point. If the 12z euro takes it further south then we are just hanging on at that point. It is certainly not par for the course from the norm of highs weakening and storms trending north though. 9:45 nooners in Hanover. 36 and damp. Cars were covered with snow in Blue Ridge Summit. First time I have been in Hanover and not fighting traffic. I was somewhat encouraged to see the general tick south in guidance overnight. I'm in the camp of us being too far north at this point as opposed to watching it bleed towards Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Impressive 6Z euro output. My goodness. Impressive indeed on the 6z EPS. The storm is still ongoing as the run ends at 144 hours. I could not place the mean low track any better than where this run places it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was somewhat encouraged to see the general tick south in guidance overnight. I'm in the camp of us being too far north at this point as opposed to watching it bleed towards Canada. I admit it is not likely but the major change in the big players (high, Jan 4th 50 low) over the last 24 hours has me watching for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z EPS snow 24 hr. map, again with more to go because the event is still ongoing when the run ends at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I admit it is not likely but the major change in the big players (high, Jan 4th 50 low) over the last 24 hours has me watching for it. Hopefully we end up in the zone where we can afford small ticks in any direction but still be good for at least a moderate event by game time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 While we wait for 12z, I looked further at the long range GFS. It again has another Winter storm chance on the 14th this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: While we wait for 12z, I looked further at the long range GFS. It again has another Winter storm chance on the 14th this run. That’s a beaut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Impressive indeed on the 6z EPS. The storm is still ongoing as the run ends at 144 hours. I could not place the mean low track any better than where this run places it. Like just about all the systems since October, it's a big qpf producer thanks to the Niño. That's probably why I'm not too concerned at this point. Like you said, we seem to be getting breathing room from all directions. Bubbler, I agree a miss to the south is a concern, but it wouldn't be a total miss and ratios would make up for some of the lost qpf. I would be ecstatic with 6-10" plus mix or not after the past 3 years...but I'll gladly take more advertised now by most modeling . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: While we wait for 12z, I looked further at the long range GFS. It again has another Winter storm chance on the 14th this run. Gotta drive to York that day for something. Oh well, might have to postpone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 You guys need to slow down on your posting. You're going to turn this potential snowstorm into a rainstorm... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Icon just crushed us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Icon just crushed us. Well, southern PA'ers that is. It'll come north and get with other modeling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looks like overnight did pretty good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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