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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Do you have any concerns with the ridge axis placement? To me, it looks a little west of our ideal location of Boise Idaho. I'm still nervous of our storm coming too far inland based on that map.

The setup is a typical to my weenie eyes, but seems to be supported by all modeling, and strongly so by ensembles.  Heck, even the Ukie gives most of us 12-15" fwiw lol. Until modeling folds, I'll assume it's a go and not worry about typical rules of thumb.

 

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38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Do you have any concerns with the ridge axis placement? To me, it looks a little west of our ideal location of Boise Idaho. I'm still nervous of our storm coming too far inland based on that map.

I am actually a small tad worried about a southern slider at this point.   If the 12z euro takes it further south then we are just hanging on at that point.  It is certainly not par for the course for the norm of highs weakening and storms trending north though.

 

9:45 nooners in Hanover. 36 and damp.  Cars were covered with snow in Blue Ridge Summit.  First time I have been in Hanover and not fighting traffic. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am actually a small tad worried about a southern slider at this point.   If the 12z euro takes it further south then we are just hanging on at that point.  It is certainly not par for the course from the norm of highs weakening and storms trending north though.

 

9:45 nooners in Hanover. 36 and damp.  Cars were covered with snow in Blue Ridge Summit.  First time I have been in Hanover and not fighting traffic. 

I was somewhat encouraged to see the general tick south in guidance overnight. I'm in the camp of us being too far north at this point as opposed to watching it bleed towards Canada.

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was somewhat encouraged to see the general tick south in guidance overnight. I'm in the camp of us being too far north at this point as opposed to watching it bleed towards Canada.

I admit it is not likely but the major change in the big players (high, Jan 4th 50 low) over the last 24 hours has me watching for it. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I admit it is not likely but the major change in the big players (high, Jan 4th 50 low) over the last 24 hours has me watching for it. 

Hopefully we end up in the zone where we can afford small ticks in any direction but still be good for at least a moderate event by game time.

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6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Impressive indeed on the 6z EPS.

The storm is still ongoing as the run ends at 144 hours.

I could not place the mean low track any better than where this run places it.

IMG_3923.png

IMG_3924.png

Like just about all the systems since October, it's a big qpf producer thanks to the Niño.  That's probably why I'm not too concerned at this point. Like you said, we seem to be getting breathing room from all directions.  Bubbler, I  agree a miss to the south is a concern, but it wouldn't be a total miss and ratios would make up for some of the lost qpf. I  would be ecstatic with 6-10" plus mix or not after the past 3 years...but I'll gladly take more advertised now by most modeling . 

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

While we wait for 12z, I looked further at the long range GFS.

It again has another Winter storm chance on the 14th this run.

IMG_3920.png

IMG_3921.png

Gotta drive to York that day for something. Oh well, might have to postpone.

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