mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Please be close to correct Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Stays just underneath us to stay all snow. Primary that far west may mean sleet for us in the east. . It actually does not get as far North as earlier today. KY before it loses much of its influence on our column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It actually does not get as far North as earlier today. KY before it loses much of its influence on column. The surface High in Canada actually jumps in strength after the storm is already cranking. Incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think S Central PA is going to make a run for 2ft on the 10-1 snow maps. Wow!!! Thanks everyone for the PBP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: The surface High in Canada actually jumps in strength after the storm is already cranking. Incredible. Up 4Mb from previous frame. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Bubbler special...congrats! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Like further tick south and like CAd showing up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Bubbler special...congrats! My old homestead is the 2.5" south of Baltimore. Good riddance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 If i could see a redux of the 12/20 event imby, 7"+sleet, I could be very happy especially since I'm not sold on a pure snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bubbler special...congrats! Looks close to Cashtown as well…. He always wins on here…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Would love to see that High continue to strengthen that way even if the primary goes further north we still get a thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Looks close to Cashtown as well…. He always wins on here…. That strip in there (18.5 on Kuch) looks like South Mountain and the Micheaux Forest. I doubt I jackpot with a dying low to the West as to this specific run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I like the overnight arrival time as well to help get the accumulation going by sunrise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Looks close to Cashtown as well…. He always wins on here…. I'm probably 1500' from the eastern end of Adams County. The difference between the western and eastern ends is incredible sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Look at this Susquehanna Valley death band! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Look at this Susquehanna Valley death band! HH run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gefs mean never goes into the Ohio Valley with the slp. Much more classic Miller A. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Gefs mean never goes into the Ohio Valley with the slp. Much more classic Miller A. Tip of the cap to the Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 57 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 70s…is this @Voyager forecast? In all honesty, we aren't going to sniff 70 for quite awhile as a cool regime locks in for awile out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gefs, in fact, suppresses the slp. Heads almost due east once to VA/NC border. New England gets the shaft. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Any more chances to come post the 7th? How do we look long range wise?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I’m sure we’re all aware of the risks here at this lead time. My concern is of course, the relentless creep northward of the changeover line as we get to closer lead times. The good thing is we have the features we need in terms of a 50/50 low (with some Greenland blocking to hold it) and a surface high with cold air that is available. This is a really short wavelength pattern in the CONUS with the big trough already dumping into the west as the 1/7 system is approaching… so I feel that actually should help in this instance in combo with the aforementioned downstream features as heights won’t be able to build ahead and allow the storm to fully cut. The storm that’s been immediately following in the progs next week is a different story but that’s a bridge to cross on a later day. Evolution on guidance has been trending towards the miller B solution, so how far the primary drives is going to be the key there. With what I see currently, I think the transfer should happen underneath us… with the possibility of our southern tier getting into some mixing issues at some point in the event. That doesn’t have to happen though, we have the potential for an all or mostly snow event for the subforum here. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, whiteout said: Any more chances to come post the 7th? How do we look long range wise? . Snowfall for last 24 hrs of today's Euro 12z forecast. Doesn't inclide next weekend. It is the most agressive model, however, but 18z Gefs is coming in now and it's colder than its 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs, in fact, suppresses the slp. Heads almost due east once to VA/NC border. New England gets the shaft. This is an ensemble mean and not an individual model forecast so one of these could be influenced by member(s) who are drastically different than others, but the High over Easten Canada is weaker at 12Z Sat on the GEFS than it is on the GFS while the "50/50 Low" is also weaker, to the tune of 30Mb, on the GEFS. Would certainly make for a drastically different result. The low is 968 on the GFS and 990 on the GEFS. There is a cluster of lows around the top but speaking about the farther south displaced one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 That low placement seems much better on the GFS. Staying in VA/NC would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Day 9-10 Gefs 18z v 12z. Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Snowfall for last 24 hrs of today's Euro 12z forecast. Doesn't inclide next weekend. It is the most agressive model, however, but 18z Gefs is coming in now and it's colder than its 12z run. Let’s hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Let’s hope! Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Okay, this is actually an event. I'm in Port Matilda and the ground has caved. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The 18z GFS at the tail end of its run has another Winter storm chance incoming. This pattern is loaded with potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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