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Central PA Winter 23/24


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I’m sure we’re all aware of the risks here at this lead time. My concern is of course, the relentless creep northward of the changeover line as we get to closer lead times. The good thing is we have the features we need in terms of a 50/50 low (with some Greenland blocking to hold it) and a surface high with cold air that is available. This is a really short wavelength pattern in the CONUS with the big trough already dumping into the west as the 1/7 system is approaching… so I feel that actually should help in this instance in combo with the aforementioned downstream features as heights won’t be able to build ahead and allow the storm to fully cut. The storm that’s been immediately following in the progs next week is a different story but that’s a bridge to cross on a later day.

Evolution on guidance has been trending towards the miller B solution, so how far the primary drives is going to be the key there. With what I see currently, I think the transfer should happen underneath us… with the possibility of our southern tier getting into some mixing issues at some point in the event. That doesn’t have to happen though, we have the potential for an all or mostly snow event for the subforum here. 

 

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1 minute ago, whiteout said:

Any more chances to come post the 7th? How do we look long range wise?


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Snowfall for last 24 hrs of today's Euro 12z forecast. Doesn't inclide next weekend. It is the most agressive model, however, but 18z Gefs is coming in now and it's colder than its 12z run.

sn10_024h-imp.us_ne (2).png

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26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs, in fact, suppresses the slp. Heads almost due east once to VA/NC border. New England gets the shaft.

This is an ensemble mean and not an individual model forecast so one of these could be influenced by member(s) who are drastically different than others, but the High over Easten Canada is weaker at 12Z Sat on the GEFS than it is on the GFS while the "50/50 Low" is also weaker, to the tune of 30Mb,  on the GEFS.  Would certainly make for a drastically different result.  The low is 968 on the GFS and 990 on the GEFS.  There is a cluster of lows around the top but speaking about the farther south displaced one. 

 

 

 

 

 

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