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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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Looks like XMas week will be the start of the Fun weather period. 
I'm for it. Just as long as it's not like last year. I don't want to have to explain to my two-year-old why leaving the water running in the sink, is so the reindeer can get a drink because the stream has frozen because it's vodka cold, because he's old enough to call bullshit on moose being in the house.

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For forecasters that rely on the ensembles for pattern recognition, I can see why the ball is being punted to the end of Dec.  The only real trough after this week is the one we keep coming back to thinking there will be food/snow there. 
Food?

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5 hours ago, paweather said:

Looks like XMas week will be the start of the Fun weather period. 

The latest Euro Weeklies continue to advertise a very good looking Winter pattern developing around December 20th & lasting through the end of the run in mid January.

The Euro Weeklies have been remarkably consistent for the last couple of weeks of runs. The best part is that they have not pushed back the beginning of the good period which has been consistently starting around the 20th.

If these come close to verifying & we get this pattern to lock in for several weeks….let’s just say we would be very busy on here tracking Winter storm after  storm.

Bottom line, we should at least have opportunities if the Euro is close to right.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The latest Euro Weeklies continue to advertise a very good looking Winter pattern developing around December 20th & lasting through the end of the run in mid January.

The Euro Weeklies have been remarkably consistent for the last couple of weeks of runs. The best part is that they have not pushed back the beginning of the good period which has been consistently starting around the 20th.

If these come close to verifying & we get this pattern to lock in for several weeks….let’s just say we would be very busy on here tracking Winter storm after  storm.

Bottom line, we should at least have opportunities if the Euro is close to right.

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Agree we have a shot for sure for tracking and getting into model wars. 

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Off topic again, but what do you do when you realize you're in the wrong place, but don't want to hurt your mom?

While I try to stay positive, it's becoming clearer that after a year out here, I should be back home with my wife and family. Life is getting more difficult as I long to go back to normal. Work keeps screwing around with me, I'm lonely with no friends, I miss my wife, my daughter and grandkids, the dog and cat, and everything else that we did together. 

Here, it's just me and mom, and while I love her dearly, I'm just all out of whack. I want my wife to come out, but she won't. I want my mom to move back east, but she won't. 

In a nutshell, I feel like I just don't belong here anymore, and im afraid I'm going to lose EVERYTHING if I don'tmake a move soon...

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3 hours ago, Voyager said:

Off topic again, but what do you do when you realize you're in the wrong place, but don't want to hurt your mom?

While I try to stay positive, it's becoming clearer that after a year out here, I should be back home with my wife and family. Life is getting more difficult as I long to go back to normal. Work keeps screwing around with me, I'm lonely with no friends, I miss my wife, my daughter and grandkids, the dog and cat, and everything else that we did together. 

Here, it's just me and mom, and while I love her dearly, I'm just all out of whack. I want my wife to come out, but she won't. I want my mom to move back east, but she won't. 

In a nutshell, I feel like I just don't belong here anymore, and im afraid I'm going to lose EVERYTHING if I don'tmake a move soon...

Here’s the thing Voyager, you have to do what’s best for YOU. You have already made a deep sacrifice for your mother and I’m sure she’s eternally grateful, but you don’t owe to her giving up the rest of the entirety of your life in perpetuity. Your kids and grandkids deserve you. Your wife, who you made a lifelong commitment to, deserves you. Your pets deserve you. YOU deserve you. We only get one brief shot at this life; make the most of it. Good luck mate. 

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Here’s the thing Voyager, you have to do what’s best for YOU. You have already made a deep sacrifice for your mother and I’m sure she’s eternally grateful, but you don’t owe to her giving up the rest of the entirety of your life in perpetuity. Your kids and grandkids deserve you. Your wife, who you made a lifelong commitment to, deserves you. Your pets deserve you. YOU deserve you. We only get one brief shot at this life; make the most of it. Good luck mate. 

I think you said it the best as anyone could have. 

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9 hours ago, canderson said:

CTP has snow in my grid forecast for tomorrow night. No accumulation of course. 

yeah, nice to see mention of snow showers in the next 2 days.  

Regardless of the outcome (which appears to be similar to what we saw almost a week ago), it has been well modeled for the last week.  

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Pretty big differences in front timing and temps later this week on the CMC and GFS.  GFS would have it 55-65 for 3 days while CMC says 2 with one of them being a short period during one of those days.   Icon has it getting over 50 four days but not as warm as the GFS.    Despite the CMC being overall cooler, the front timing is quite different.  At 6Z Monday the GFS has MDT at 38 and CMC has 61 for the same time. 

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