Central PA Winter 23/24

[Bubbler86]

Not a good GFS run....after some snow TV on Jan 7th we are left with this.  A stark contract to some runs last week which showed real cold invading the US by the time of this map. 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Unreal 

 

Just now, TimB said:

This is ugly. A low off the VA/NC coast in JANUARY, under negative 500mb height anomalies, bringing rain to PA. Unreal.

It was not below freezing before the event and there is no below freezing temps anywhere near the area except way above the ground, so it is not a good setup outside rate induced cooling which is not optimal. 

[TimB]

Remember, just two days ago it was thought that below freezing temps would dominate from Thursday on.

[TimB]

We’re about to lose most of January too, aren’t we?

[mahantango#1]

Can't the NWS make up their minds? Now they have me possibly getting 2.75 in of rain till late Wednesday night.

[Rd9108]

40 minutes ago, TimB said:

We’re about to lose most of January too, aren’t we?

It's one OP run, just 6 hours ago everything looked fine. 

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not a good GFS run....after some snow TV on Jan 7th we are left with this.  A stark contract to some runs last week which showed real cold invading the US by the time of this map. 

 

 

Didn’t this happen last year? Hints at longterm pattern change that never materialized 

[Ahoff]

January’s cancelled on December 26th guys.  Pack it in.

Truly insane comments here.

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

January’s cancelled on December 26th guys.  Pack it in.

Truly insane comments here.

Thats what to expect from the Pittsburgh Crowd!

[Mikeymac5306]

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

January’s cancelled on December 26th guys.  Pack it in.

Truly insane comments here.

I agree...

 

[Bubbler86]

37 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

January’s cancelled on December 26th guys.  Pack it in.

Truly insane comments here.

I think the only people cancelling January are in the MA thread and not many at that.   But the OP GFS was not good regardless. 

[Rd9108]

27 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thats what to expect from the Pittsburgh Crowd!

Sorry guys we had a few strays get loose over the Holiday. I'll be sure to round them up for you and take them back home. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Sorry guys we had a few strays get loose over the Holiday. I'll be sure to round them up for you and take them back home. 

Try to find a no kill shelter to drop them off at, but if you can't in this case I wouldn't worry to much about it. 

Its one thing to pop into another regions thread and try to contribute, but a whole other bag of worms to whine, complain and troll. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think the only people cancelling January are in the MA thread and not many at that.   But the OP GFS was not good regardless. 

Since Im here Ill take a bit of my own advice, I agree with you, to soon to "cancel" anything. Probably not too soon to debate if the pattern change we thought was coming in early Jan might not be what we thought and it may take to the second half but would that really be that far off from most expectations of a more back loaded winter? Probably not, but those that ride the emotional pendulum with every op run will likely remain insufferable. 

[paweather]

38 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

24 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Try to find a no kill shelter to drop them off at, but if you can't in this case I wouldn't worry to much about it. 

Its one thing to pop into another regions thread and try to contribute, but a whole other bag of worms to whine, complain and troll. 

Sorry guys we had a few strays get loose over the Holiday. I'll be sure to round them up for you and take them back home. 

Thank you there is nothing to cancel at this point. 

[Bubbler86]

37 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Since Im here Ill take a bit of my own advice, I agree with you, to soon to "cancel" anything. Probably not too soon to debate if the pattern change we thought was coming in early Jan might not be what we thought and it may take to the second half but would that really be that far off from most expectations of a more back loaded winter? Probably not, but those that ride the emotional pendulum with every op run will likely remain insufferable. 

I think the big worry from above is that we have not had a lot of OP runs showing extensive cold regardless of prospective patterns....a few have but on random runs that popped in and out.  We need to start seeing it consistently. 

[canderson]

Saw a blooming cherry tree today. Totally normal for late December. 

[Jns2183]

Saw a blooming cherry tree today. Totally normal for late December. 

Hasn't that happened every December for last decade which would make it normal.

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[Albedoman]

for those who are dejected and wishing to cancel winter based on the latest model runs do not fret ---- I am an historical meteorologist . You may ask what the hell is that?  I rely on my personal weather pattern experiences  over the last 50 years since  I have been old enough to enjoy the knowledge of weather since I was 12 years old. I learned much weather from uncle who was the regional head forecasting meteorologist for NOAA (NWS) in the western US.   I also was an air traffic controller in the Navy and graduated with a BS physical geography degree with a concentration in atmospheric science(Before many meteorological  schools were even around).  I do not rely solely LR daily model runs until the storms are within 48-72 hours period. Anything else is simply conjecture.  I only rely on LR models to help establish the future temp/precip  ranges and the possibilities of changes in the long term weather patterns. That is it. I was using my personal  experiences and senses in the early 70's to 80's when there were no daily 8 hour model runs and the only models were spit out in a past weekly bulletin on the weeks previous storm events. I spent more time analyzing the storm patterns such as neutral, el nino and la nina patterns  instead of relying just on LR computer model ensembles. Weather has been boiled down  to  a simple game of statistical chances by using computer model ensembles. Right or wrong, I side with past history

Right now I see nothing but cold polar air bottled up in northern Canada with pacific cold fronts flowing zonally across the country Alberta Canada is where we get our cold air from except for an occasional backdoor cold front. There is nada coming from either direction  right now. The southern jet stream is buckling but the northern stream will not come down into mid USA period to phase and deepen the lows.  Until we get an LP over Alberta forming a clipper  bringing  that locked up polar air in Canada to the central US and introducing a potential pattern change,  there is nothing we can do but watch models kick the potential 3-6 in snow events further into the 10-15 day time frame.   WE must have sustainable cold- WE HAVE NONE.

The potential of a 2-4 or 3-6 in  snow event keeps showing up  during the Jan 9-11 time frame but that is all it is. When I see it show up on the NAM at 36 hours- thats doable IMHO.  

My past personal history for those who believe in what  I do,  compares this year to 1993 where we had a crappy el nino winter 2-4 inches of snow until late February where we di get some accumalting snow event followed by the March superstorm  which was a triple phaser.  The el nino years below in a sample ranking chart . Please note 1958 has been thrown in the rankings  for your forum too in February.  (Morgantown blizzard) The winters are definitely back loaded for heavy snow sure in these years with some cold. It is  just that we usually get cold sustainable cold in neutral years from the passage of continuous clippers as the el nino pattern is dying-- last gasp storm event before going into a neutral year.  Remember how the severe cold in early 1994 set in that was attributable from weakening neutral year with the combination of MT Pinatubo eruption? We have not had a  neutral winter in a long time.  3+ years.   Lets see what the second to third week of January can throw at us?

Ranked El Niño Events by 3-Month Season
Rank	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
1	1983	1983	1983	1983	1983	1997	1997	1997	1997	1997	1997	1997
2	1998	1998	1998	1998	1992	1983	1987	1987	1987	1982	1982	1982
3	1973	1992	1992	1992	1998	1992	1972	1972	1972	1972	1972	1972
4	1931	1931	1931	1987	1987	1987	1983	1982	1982	1987	1902	1930
5	1992	1973	1987	1941	1941	1941	1905	1905	1905	1902	1930	1965
6	1966	1919	1941	1931	1993	1993	1982	1902	1965	1930	1987	1902
7	1919	1987	1926	1926	1900	1900	1902	1965	1902	1965	1941*	1991
8	1926	1941	1958	1993	1997	1905	1941	1957	1930	1941	1965*	1941

[TimB]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Try to find a no kill shelter to drop them off at, but if you can't in this case I wouldn't worry to much about it. 

Its one thing to pop into another regions thread and try to contribute, but a whole other bag of worms to whine, complain and troll. 

It’s not trolling, it’s frustration and despair because it’s been nearly 22 months since we’ve even had a hint of winter and then a change to seasonable weather that had been advertised for weeks got significantly delayed practically overnight just 4 days out and may disappear entirely, yielding to endless highs in the 40s/lows in the 30s November/March type shit.

Last winter wasn’t just bad, it was in the historically bad category, as has been this winter so far.

[Rd9108]

38 minutes ago, TimB said:

It’s not trolling, it’s frustration and despair because it’s been nearly 22 months since we’ve even had a hint of winter and then a change to seasonable weather that had been advertised for weeks got significantly delayed practically overnight just 4 days out and may disappear entirely, yielding to endless highs in the 40s/lows in the 30s November/March type shit.

Last winter wasn’t just bad, it was in the historically bad category, as has been this winter so far.

Agreed but this isn't even your areas subforum so do you honestly think the people in this thread wanna hear even more bitching and complaining?

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, paweather said:

Thats what to expect from the Pittsburgh Crowd!

Not all of us.  I won’t lump myself in with some of them.  We share geography, but not mindset.

[Ahoff]

57 minutes ago, TimB said:

It’s not trolling, it’s frustration and despair because it’s been nearly 22 months since we’ve even had a hint of winter and then a change to seasonable weather that had been advertised for weeks got significantly delayed practically overnight just 4 days out and may disappear entirely, yielding to endless highs in the 40s/lows in the 30s November/March type shit.

Last winter wasn’t just bad, it was in the historically bad category, as has been this winter so far.

Yes, and we are all frustrated, you aren’t the only one.  Can you please just give it a rest with the negativity though, and stop letting this run your life.  It’s weather, you can’t control.  Some just want to come here and enjoy themselves, not constantly see annoying, repetitive complaints.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Not all of us.  I won’t lump myself in with some of them.  We share geography, but not mindset.

100%!! I’m with you buddy-I love coming here and reading things as the board is usually busier with having more science minus the gloom…..I do understand the frustration tho-but not worth bringing up what we all already know…

[ChescoWx]

Some snow drought factoids that you might find of interest. We have talked about this before but here in Chester County PA if we can just get through January 3rd without recording a full one inch daily snowfall we will set a new record for longest period between such events - our last greater than 1" snow event was on March 12, 2022 when we recorded 4.3" of snow. The current non 1" record is the only winter in Chester County since 1888 that recorded absolutely no snow at all. So nothing measurable (more than a trace) - this was during the non-winter of 1972-73. During that stretch we went from February 24, 1972 until December 16, 1973 or 661 days without a daily observed snowfall of at least 1 inch.

To help hopefully put some of this in context for all of you snow lovers out there....be very thankful you were not around to remember back when we really had true snow droughts. Are you surprised to find out that from the mid-1930's through the late 1950's. Here in Chester County we had not even one above average snow season?? (Current 30 year average 35.9") So for 23 straight winter seasons from the winter of 1934-35 season through the 1956-57 season not one winter season featured above normal snowfall - snow enthusiasts must have been miserable!!

By contrast folks today with more recent memories of here in Chester County PA may potentially be surprised to hear that the last 2 complete decades (2000's/2010's) featured two of the top four snowiest decades in our history going back through the 1890's. With my view of typical cyclical weather patterns....it would make one think we are way overdue for some non-snowy winters before the next snowy period sets in. Thoughts??

[Ahoff]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Some snow drought factoids that you might find of interest. We have talked about this before but here in Chester County PA if we can just get through January 3rd without recording a full one inch daily snowfall we will set a new record for longest period between such events - our last greater than 1" snow event was on March 12, 2022 when we recorded 4.3" of snow. The current non 1" record is the only winter in Chester County since 1888 that recorded absolutely no snow at all. So nothing measurable (more than a trace) - this was during the non-winter of 1972-73. During that stretch we went from February 24, 1972 until December 16, 1973 or 661 days without a daily observed snowfall of at least 1 inch.

To help hopefully put some of this in context for all of you snow lovers out there....be very thankful you were not around to remember back when we really had true snow droughts. Are you surprised to find out that from the mid-1930's through the late 1950's. Here in Chester County we had not even one above average snow season?? (Current 30 year average 35.9") So for 23 straight winter seasons from the winter of 1934-35 season through the 1956-57 season not one winter season featured above normal snowfall - snow enthusiasts must have been miserable!!

By contrast folks today with more recent memories of here in Chester County PA may potentially be surprised to hear that the last 2 complete decades (2000's/2010's) featured two of the top four snowiest decades in our history going back through the 1890's. With my view of typical cyclical weather patterns....it would make one think we are way overdue for some non-snowy winters before the next snowy period sets in. Thoughts??

I agree, things are cyclical.  We can look at areas like Russia and China that are having historically cold and snowy winters right now.  We’ll cycle back to that at some point.

Pittsburgh’s average snowfall went up at the turn of the last decade.  That shows conditions were overall snowier.  A few bum years are to be expected.  Hysterics by some are unnecessary and exhausting. 

[ChescoWx]

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I agree, things are cyclical.  We can look at areas like Russia and China that are having historically cold and snowy winters right now.  We’ll cycle back to that at some point.

Pittsburgh’s average snowfall went up at the turn of the last decade.  That shows conditions were overall snowier.  A few bum years are to be expected.  Hysterics by some are unnecessary and exhausting. 

Thanks Ahoff!!

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, paweather said:

Thank you there is nothing to cancel at this point. 

Exactly!

Especially when the 12z EPS still continues to look good.

The period around January 7th is showing as a good window of opportunity for a Winter storm chance.

The signal is pretty strong for an ensemble run at this range.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly!

Especially when the 12z EPS still continues to look good.

The period around January 7th is showing as a good window of opportunity for a Winter storm chance.

The signal is pretty strong for an ensemble run at this range.

Yes, it looks to be cold enough for snow in this period.

Here is the 12z EPS snow for just the 48 hours centered on January 7th.

[Jns2183]

Some snow drought factoids that you might find of interest. We have talked about this before but here in Chester County PA if we can just get through January 3rd without recording a full one inch daily snowfall we will set a new record for longest period between such events - our last greater than 1" snow event was on March 12, 2022 when we recorded 4.3" of snow. The current non 1" record is the only winter in Chester County since 1888 that recorded absolutely no snow at all. So nothing measurable (more than a trace) - this was during the non-winter of 1972-73. During that stretch we went from February 24, 1972 until December 16, 1973 or 661 days without a daily observed snowfall of at least 1 inch. To help hopefully put some of this in context for all of you snow lovers out there....be very thankful you were not around to remember back when we really had true snow droughts. Are you surprised to find out that from the mid-1930's through the late 1950's. Here in Chester County we had not even one above average snow season?? (Current 30 year average 35.9") So for 23 straight winter seasons from the winter of 1934-35 season through the 1956-57 season not one winter season featured above normal snowfall - snow enthusiasts must have been miserable!! By contrast folks today with more recent memories of here in Chester County PA may potentially be surprised to hear that the last 2 complete decades (2000's/2010's) featured two of the top four snowiest decades in our history going back through the 1890's. With my view of typical cyclical weather patterns....it would make one think we are way overdue for some non-snowy winters before the next snowy period sets in. Thoughts??

I think you very well know my thoughts probably, haha. For years I wondered about these magical winters my parents and their friends all spoke about when younger. Than I found out they were all born between 1956-1960, then stumbled upon just how weird and crazy the 1960s were in regard to snow. The closest we were to something so strange was rainfall in 2011 with 73" and 2018 with 67" as compared to previous high of 59" due to angels in 1972. But for that comparison to hold true the totals would have had to be 89" and 82" with 2 more years in the 2010's with 60"+ of rain. For a decade the 1960s were a once in 50 to 100 decade (so 500 to 1000 years). People who had there childhood in the 60's have such a distorted view of snow.

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