Central PA Winter 23/24

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Disclaimer, this is just a PBP and doing the 300's because it is when wintery weather would get most interesting.  If you do not like LR OP's, great....tell your wife, tell your dog, say a prayer, but I do not need to know it.  Appreciate it! 

 

 

Here's the problem.....you've offered many long lead Op maps when some of us knew it wasn't happening (last weeks non event that you thew one out many days prior), yet you troll (me) and dismiss others for what they offer that you dont agree with.  Hmmm....  Cant have it both ways pal. 

FWIW, ANY 300 hr map in the last few years has largely been "low res" if we look at verification scores.

In the spirit of Christmas, I'll offer the last olive branch as I know we both share the love of weather in hopes of better times in here, as even I am tired of all of the basing of late.  I'll no longer trash your offerings that I don't agree with, but I'll point out why I disagree (its a weather disco board ya know), and if I'm wrong, I'm capable of eating crow (and like usual, I'll admit it). 

As I enjoy/appreciate info you provide - and have even given you credit when you point something of merit, but being dismissive when others share same things as you do and only you get the "good call" is part of the problem here. Its surely noticed.

Clickiness in our group has created alot of this, and many here have played a part in creating it...you're not exempt from that...and neither am I. 

It would be nice for all of us to have meaningful dialog without waiting for certain people to say "its happening".  Were all a bunch of novice weather geeks, but there are plenty smart enough in here to support our groups weather convo.  I don't think most here get paid for this.  Its just for fun. 

 

Expecting to be ignored, but I'm over our past as I'm old enough to no longer hold grudges.  

 

Merry Christmas to all...and to any that don't believe in Christ....you should go to work tomorrow 

 

[pasnownut]

41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Things look good to me in the day 10-15 5 day means on all 3 globals in early January.

sure looks better and nice to have support on all major ens guidance.  In my opinion, Op models should start becoming more believable in the coming days.  Sure hope so.  

[ChescoWx]

Merry Christmas Eve to all!! We picked up 0.05" of rain early this AM but with temps well above freezing no issues. Christmas Day looks great for travel with temps well into the 40's across the county and partly sunny skies. No freezing temps at all across the area until at the earliest Friday AM. Rain moves in late on Tuesday evening and lasts into Wednesday night. We then have a change in the pattern to much chillier air which looks to last right into the first part of the New Year. There will also be some opportunities for wintry weather as we head toward the 1st weekend of 2024.

Records for Christmas Eve: High 68.5 (2015) / Low 2 below zero (1980) / Rain 1.63" (1986) / Snow 20.0" (1966) which was the snowstorm with frequent thunder and lightning accompanying the heavy snow.

[Jns2183]

What are we all thankful about today? For me it's having a place to talk to people about this stuff who won't slowly back out of room while maintaining eye contact at all times.

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[TimB]

58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Dude, it’s Christmas Eve… please…..

Fair enough. Merry Christmas, enjoy the (still somewhat rare) treat of getting to wear shorts on Christmas!

[ChescoWx]

Below are the top 15 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combos since 1894....of note the top 4 have all occurred since 1980. Including the all-time 3rd coldest just last Christmas.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below are the top 15 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combos since 1894....of note the top 4 have all occurred since 1980. Including the all-time 3rd coldest just last Christmas.

I remember 1983 very well.

[Santa Clause]

Merry Christmas, hope a warning event somehow happens in 2024…stay safe and have fun all.

[Blizzard of 93]

The end of the 12z GEPS improved over the 0z run with more of the broad coast to coast trough with a good look near Greenland.

[Jns2183]

Who was it that wrote a day in the life for our forum?

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[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Who was it that wrote a day in the life for our forum?

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That would be @Itstrainingtime

I look forward to when he does that again.

[Jns2183]

That would be [mention=1366]Itstrainingtime[/mention]
I look forward to when he does that again.

That was pure gold. It was right before a big storm too I believe.

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[Jns2183]

We need some more cheer on here. All of weather history backs up this point; the snow drought will not be for eternity.

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[Blizzard of 93]

 

• Here is a snapshot of just how undecided things are even at day 9 on the 12z Op runs…
• Long way to go even for even the first few days of the year to be decided.

[paulm]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

 

• Here is a snapshot of just how undecided things are even at day 9 on the 12z Op runs…
• Long way to go even for even the first few days of the year to be decided.

EPS is significantly less amplified than the Euro, so the operational is likely too aggressive for the 1/2 storm system. 

[Jns2183]

EPS is significantly less amplified than the Euro, so the operational is likely too aggressive for the 1/2 storm system. 

How does NWS measure model error 9 days out?

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[pasnownut]

45 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

How does NWS measure model error 9 days out?

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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/medrhist.shtml  or pic below

you pick.  

 

[Jns2183]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/medrhist.shtml  or pic below
you pick.  
 

That just has to do with max min temps though

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[pasnownut]

40 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

That just has to do with max min temps though

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It has a few items and one is models. Maybe this helps from NCEP as they have some tools as well 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml

only goes out to 6-7 days tho me thinks. 

[Bubbler86]

[TimB]

Sure enough, highs into the 40s into the middle of next week. This is absolutely ridiculous. GFS sniffed out, like it always does, that the torch was going to continue and now the other operational models have followed suit and the ensembles will be next to go. Just 3-4 days before what was expected to be the pattern change too.

[TimB]

4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

 

• Here is a snapshot of just how undecided things are even at day 9 on the 12z Op runs…
• Long way to go even for even the first few days of the year to be decided.

It’s gone. Seasonable cold is now 10+ days away. The writing is on the wall. This is the same goddamn thing that kept happening and happening last year, and it fucking sucks.

[Blizzard of 93]

Dude, didn’t I ask you to give it a break on Christmas Eve  on here….

Besides, everything is just fine with everything I’m seeing & most respected pros are seeing.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Lol, Apparently they don’t teach how to look at a weather model in western PA.

We get a nice happy hour run event & yet still get bizarre posts.

Maybe too much egg nog for him?

[Jns2183]

Lol, Apparently they don’t teach how to look at a weather model in western PA.
We get a nice happy hour run event & yet still get bizarre posts.
Maybe too much egg nog for him?

Blizz I'll toast some 18 year whiskey to that beautiful run

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[Blizzard of 93]

Each of the 12z Canadian & Euro Op model runs-they end at day 10-ended with a cold look.

The 18z GFS Op that ends at day 16 ended cold as well with another storm chance coming if the run extended a couple more days.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GEFS pattern & temps still look good for the 7 day period for day 9 through 16.

[Jns2183]

@canderson I'm still waiting for a full report on that bar and cocktails in London

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[canderson]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

@canderson I'm still waiting for a full report on that bar and cocktails in London

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Since you asked … 

The classic martini made table side at Connaught Bar is the stuff of dreams.  

 

This was amazing from the Brown’s Hotel bar -  Old Tom gin, amaro lucano anniversario, liquorice, grand marnier, balsamic vinegar

 

Also had this there  - Umeshu, manzanilla sherry, lacto fermented pineapple, wray & nephew rum

 

This exceeded expectations by a great value and you should add it to the menu - Nordes Gin, Jasmine Patchouli Liquor, Jasmine Syrup, Lime

 

The best restaurant in the world, Gymkhana, made this great drink - Tanqueray Gin, Curry Leaf, Ginger, Lemon, Egg White, Tonic Bitters

 

This was joyous and earthy  - Black Truffle Gin, Red Vermouth, Campari, Parmigiano Cheese

 

Lots of beers from pubs. The Founders Special Ale (1st pic) was especially terrific.  

 

 

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, Apparently they don’t teach how to look at a weather model in western PA.

We get a nice happy hour run event & yet still get bizarre posts.

Maybe too much egg nog for him?

Truly, if you have a block button use it on him.  I had to stop posting in the W. PA thread.  The negativity from him is too much.  It’s only weather, you can’t let it ruin every aspect of your life, but he does.

But, anyway, I’d lock that run in in a heart beat.  Hopefully, the GFS is on to something.  Seems it can sniff stuff out from this distance, then loses it, only for it to come back.  We’ll see though.