Central PA Winter 23/24

[paweather]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

DT thoughts:

 

What DT says will happen LOL hopefully 

[TimB]

Quiet in here. I assume the day 14 storm was gone on the 18z?

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, TimB said:

Quiet in here. I assume the day 14 storm was gone on the 18z?

Pittsburgh calling?

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, TimB said:

Quiet in here. I assume the day 14 storm was gone on the 18z?

Everyone is choking on their hot toddy's because Steel scored 34 points. 

 

PS-18Z GFS....at least we are still in the game. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Lol, it’s also Saturday night & the day before Christmas Eve…some people might be kind of busy.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GEFS still looks good as well for the first week of January.

[WmsptWx]

Quiet in here. I assume the day 14 storm was gone on the 18z?

Sorry. I was busy with the feats of strength. I remain undefeated.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Sorry. I was busy with the feats of strength. I remain undefeated.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

There have been lots of grievances aired here the last 2-3 days. 

[WmsptWx]

There have been lots of grievances aired here the last 2-3 weeks. 

I've got a lot of problems with you people...

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

@Mount Joy Snowman, MDT is locked in for an AN month....will it be >< 2.5 AN?  Time to put down the nog and scratch out some math.   :-)

[Mount Joy Snowman]

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Mount Joy Snowman, MDT is locked in for an AN month....will it be >< 2.5 AN?  Time to put down the nog and scratch out some math.   :-)

You called? Well, I’m on vacation all next week and like any good desk jockey this is the type of thing I would do during work time haha. But I just did some top of the head mathing for ya and there’s no doubt MDT ends up well above 2.5 AN. Average temp will probably end up comfortably north of 41. I’ll say we end up somewhere between 4th and 6th place for warmest December all time. Caveat being that I haven’t done my normal hard calculations on this. Now, back to the nog. Merry Christmas all and enough with all the infighting! 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You called? Well, I’m on vacation all next week and like any good desk jockey this is the type of thing I would do during work time haha. But I just did some top of the head mathing for ya and there’s no doubt MDT ends up well above 2.5 AN. Average temp will probably end up comfortably north of 41. I’ll say we end up somewhere between 4th and 6th place for warmest December all time. Caveat being that I haven’t done my normal hard calculations on this. Now, back to the nog. Merry Christmas all and enough with all the infighting! 

Re desk jockey-In many cases, the best model PBPing is done on someone else's dime.  

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS has a January 4th Winter Storm chance.

[Bubbler86]

After one of the colder, wintery feeling weeks in recent times, it is an even 40 here this AM.  Santa pulling the heat with him. 

[Bubbler86]

6Z GFS keeps trying to expand that last vort but having troubles making it any more than a nuisance snow right now as the wave is delayed and misses the chance to work with a departing trough.    One major plus is the cold in place that gets entrenched to start the second week of Jan.  Still think the lack of sufficient cold to our north limits things the first week of Jan.

 

  Disclaimer, this is just a PBP and doing the 300's because it is when wintery weather would get most interesting.  If you do not like LR OP's, great....tell your wife, tell your dog, say a prayer, but I do not need to know it.  Appreciate it! 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z GFS keeps trying to expand that last vort but having troubles making it any more than a nuisance snow right now as the wave is delayed and misses the chance to work with a departing trough.    One major plus is the cold in place that gets entrenched to start the second week of Jan.  Still think the lack of sufficient cold to our north limits things the first week of Jan.

 

  Disclaimer, this is just a PBP and doing the 300's because it is when wintery weather would get most interesting.  If you do not like LR OP's, great....tell your wife, tell your dog, say a prayer, but I do not need to know it.  Appreciate it! 

 

Thanks & that last paragraph is great!

I just had to put my annual disclaimer out a few days ago on here!

Happy Christmas Eve!

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks & that last paragraph is great!

I just had to put my annual disclaimer out a few days ago on here!

Happy Christmas Eve!

You too and enjoy hashing out model output anytime with you as long as we both are allowed to have valid opinions!   That disclaimer was for people who trash the Op like it is not a valid model to discuss.   I am certainly not going to spend the time to parse every member of the Low Res Gefs panel. 

[Blizzard of 93]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You too and enjoy hashing out model output anytime with you as long as we both are allowed to have valid opinions!   That disclaimer was for people who trash the Op like it is not a valid model to discuss.   I am certainly not going to spend the time to parse every member of the Low Res Gefs panel. 

I know what you mean, disclaimers should not be needed, especially for those of us that have been doing this for a long time.

Ops, ensembles, teleconnections, analogs, etc. all have their value & they contribute to trying to figure out the upcoming story of how our weather will unfold.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is something that I mention every year that I use just as a simple indicator tool to let me know the potential for snow in a given window of time.

All 3 ensemble snow maps finally are getting the “blue” to DC or northern VA. The GEFS & GEPS the last 2 days have really extended the blue well south. The EPS finally joined them at 0z.

Again, this to me is just an indicator especially when we are entering what should be a favorable period.
There are no guarantees, but it’s good to see the ensemble snow maps responding to the favorable look of the upcoming pattern.

Bottom line, we should have our chances, as some of the Ops have been showing off & on the last few days for the first week of January.

Here are the latest 15/16 day snow maps for the EPS, GEFS & GEPS.

 

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z GFS keeps trying to expand that last vort but having troubles making it any more than a nuisance snow right now as the wave is delayed and misses the chance to work with a departing trough.    One major plus is the cold in place that gets entrenched to start the second week of Jan.  Still think the lack of sufficient cold to our north limits things the first week of Jan.

 

  Disclaimer, this is just a PBP and doing the 300's because it is when wintery weather would get most interesting.  If you do not like LR OP's, great....tell your wife, tell your dog, say a prayer, but I do not need to know it.  Appreciate it! 

 

The thing I noticed on the 6z GFS is it suddenly has this idea that it’s going to take much longer for “cold enough” weather to arrive. The positive height anomalies remain entrenched, and what once looked like a seasonable weekend with highs in the 30s and lows comfortably below freezing now looks like a warm-ish weekend with highs in the 40s and lows not hitting the freezing mark. In fact, the first freezing temp on the entire run occurs around hour 240, in the wee hours of Jan 3. So instead of 4 or 5 days until it feels like winter again, the GFS thinks it’ll be 10. That’s a huge change if it’s onto something.

[Blizzard of 93]

I see a pattern of chances once to early January. It’s not a KU look at this time, but more of an Advisory to lower end Warning type of look. This is again not a KU look, but far far far from a shut out look as well. I’m thinking we see good old type of 2-4, 3-6 inch snow events as the GFS Op has been showing off & on for that first week or so of January.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I see a pattern of chances once to early January. It’s not a KU look at this time, but more of an Advisory to lower end Warning type of look. This is again not a KU look, but far far far from a shut out look as well. I’m thinking we see good old type of 2-4, 3-6 inch snow events events as the GFS Op has been showing off & on for that first week or so of January.

Thanks Blizz long overdue but we know chances are coming 

[Bubbler86]

40 minutes ago, TimB said:

The thing I noticed on the 6z GFS is it suddenly has this idea that it’s going to take much longer for “cold enough” weather to arrive. The positive height anomalies remain entrenched, and what once looked like a seasonable weekend with highs in the 30s and lows comfortably below freezing now looks like a warm-ish weekend with highs in the 40s and lows not hitting the freezing mark. In fact, the first freezing temp on the entire run occurs around hour 240, in the wee hours of Jan 3. So instead of 4 or 5 days until it feels like winter again, the GFS thinks it’ll be 10. That’s a huge change if it’s onto something.

I have been kind of hinting as such (not cold enough for snow for the first 1-4 days of the month outside sloppy snow) too though it did have a run or two where the cold was in earlier.    Does not seem to be much on the GEFS ensemble mean to debate the GFS as to highs below freezing for the first few days of Jan.     Highs near 35-40 on the mean.  Colder after the 5th. 

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have been kind of hinting as such (not cold enough for snow for the first 1-4 days of the month outside sloppy snow) too though it did have a run or two where the cold was in earlier.    Does not seem to be much on the GEFS ensemble mean to debate the GFS as to highs below freezing for the first few days of Jan.     Highs near 35-40 on the mean.  Colder after the 5th. 

If you’re looking for warning signs, the 500 maps on the GEFS do have an awful lot of red floating around. It’s not as bad as the Canadian ensemble where you can already see the end of the pattern by the end of the run, but things decisively moved a bad direction overnight on several models.

[Blizzard of 93]

18 minutes ago, TimB said:

If you’re looking for warning signs, the 500 maps on the GEFS do have an awful lot of red floating around. It’s not as bad as the Canadian ensemble where you can already see the end of the pattern by the end of the run, but things decisively moved a bad direction overnight on several models.

Dude, it’s Christmas Eve… please…..

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Dude, it’s Christmas Eve… please…..

I see someone else lurking, again, please let’s not do this today or tomorrow…

[Bubbler86]

28 minutes ago, TimB said:

If you’re looking for warning signs, the 500 maps on the GEFS do have an awful lot of red floating around. It’s not as bad as the Canadian ensemble where you can already see the end of the pattern by the end of the run, but things decisively moved a bad direction overnight on several models.

Probably too early to worry.    Seems like a strong possibility a good of the first half of Jan will be colder. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Things look good to me in the day 10-15 5 day means on all 3 globals in early January.

[Blizzard of 93]

My point is that it’s workable Or serviceable. 
To put it simply, there are no oranges or reds stretching from Louisiana to Maine!

We should have chances.

[Blizzard of 93]

The end of the ensemble runs all look cold enough at the end of their 15/16 day runs as well.