Central PA Winter 23/24

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I was thinking that must have happened because it was awful quiet in here overnight.

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It could certainly snow if a well-timed low came calling, which it does not on this run, but the lowest high temp on the entire run is around 40....which is 10-15 higher than it was yesterday on some colder runs.   The Voyager maps are showing up again in the LR.  NOT A FORECAST (not directed at you) and I do not need to be told how wrong it may be, just a PBP. 

 

 

[WmsptWx]

  NOT A FORECAST (not directed at you) and I do not need to be told how wrong it may be, just a PBP. 
 

 

That's probably what will verify. I try not to be like the trolls, but facts are facts.

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[Blizzard of 93]

17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Better role out some more ensembles because the Op GFS is not really getting cold enough air down into the US now. Next (model run)! 

Lol…because one GFS Op at day 16 is to be taken seriously…?

Come on now…

[WmsptWx]

Lol…because one GFS Op at day 16 is to be taken seriously…?
Come on now…

You post every wet dream run 300 hours out. Are you really in a position to castigate somebody for posting one GFS OP at day 16?

Your lack of posting during the overnight is how I know the models aren't showing anything good.

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[Blizzard of 93]

If we want to talk long range global Op models, the 3 main globals are all cold at day 10 for New Year’s Eve.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

You post every wet dream run 300 hours out. Are you really in a position to castigate somebody for posting one GFS OP at day 16?

Your lack of posting during the overnight is how I know the models aren't showing anything good.

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Really….I am really sick & tired of you coming after me!!!

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol…because one GFS Op at day 16 is to be taken seriously…?

Come on now…

That was why I said next BUT it has trended backwards several runs in a row.   Cannot blame anyone for wanting to see the goods within 5-7 days before we make a purchase.   Too far out to fret over much.  

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Really….I am really sick & tired of you coming after me!!!

I post occasional long range snow just for fun.

most of us are here for snow 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

You post every wet dream run 300 hours out. Are you really in a position to castigate somebody for posting one GFS OP at day 16?

Your lack of posting during the overnight is how I know the models aren't showing anything good.

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Why don’t you ever post anything worthwhile that adds anything of value to this place?!?!

I hope you enjoy being the resident no talent ass clown in here!!!

 

[WmsptWx]

Really….I am really sick & tired of you coming after me!!!

You wishcast. Constantly. And you have the temerity to question the seriousness of Bubbler posting one OP run?

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[Blizzard of 93]

Waking up in the middle of the night to post is reserved for when a snow threat gets to within a few days out.

[WmsptWx]

Waking up in the middle of the night to post is reserved for when a snow threat gets to within a few days out.

300 hours is a few days now?

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[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

You wishcast. Constantly. And you have the temerity to question the seriousness of Bubbler posting one OP run?

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I post maps from model runs to discuss.

I am not saying everyday “Golly gee, I wish it would snow someday”!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

300 hours is a few days now?

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Get a life dude!

Not sure what your last post even means.

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Why don’t you ever post anything worthwhile that adds anything of value to this place?!?!

I hope you enjoy being the resident no talent ass clown in here!!!

 

@Atomixwx

I am still waiting for your first quality post….

[Blizzard of 93]

This place is losing me quickly…

Have a great day everyone….(except one).

[WmsptWx]

[mention=2708]Atomixwx[/mention]
I am still waiting for your first quality post….

Here's my first quality post.

Two days ago you were barking about the upcoming pattern change in January. You were posting 200+ hour model runs that were favorable to snow. Whether you think that's wishcasting or not, it is. You're not posting anything based in reality.

When the model runs are less than favorable, your presence at 2 am is non-existent. Why is that? Is it because you're wishcasting and reality isn't reflecting your hopes? Why aren't you posting the guidance PBP every day? You're already looking at it. I promise you, you do not have the ability to sniff out a favorable guidance suite in your sleep, and if you can, a lack of using that prescience for good is fucking criminal, so you're refusing to provide a PBP of a more realistic run.

You're just the opposite end of the spectrum as TheClimateChanger and the others who are here on an agenda. Not here to troll, but you're certainly not based in anything realistic.

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[mahantango#1]

Almost sounds like this forum needs a cleaning, come on people it's too close to Christmas for this!

 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Almost sounds like this forum needs a cleaning, come on people it's too close to Christmas for this!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

I have been posting the longer range pattern change on the ensembles that have consistently shown a much better looking pattern developing by early January.

There are no changes with the better looks as we roll into January.

The 3 main ensembles all look cold or cold enough for snow chances for the first week of January.

[mahantango#1]

17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I have been posting the longer range pattern change on the ensembles that have consistently shown a much better looking pattern developing by early January.

There are no changes with the better looks as we roll into January.

The 3 main ensembles all look cold or cold enough for snow chances for the first week of January.

I guess that there is speculation on the colder, stormier pattern not lasting beyond 10-12 days in January.

[WmsptWx]

I guess that their is speculation on the colder, stormier pattern not lasting beyond 10-12 days in January.

Which is less than ideal, but more likely based on absolutely nothing more than the recent past.

Some months back, somebody, I wish I knew who they were so I could cite them, posted about the next several winters being punted due to a volcanic eruption. And now we're currently in a different state of influence from the world's largest body of water than we were the previous three years, and it seems like the same outcome is occuring despite the difference.

Something larger than the water temperature in the equatorial Pacific is ongoing. I have tongue-in-cheek blamed the Fukushima Daiichi meltdown in 2011 putting nuke juice into the water, but the Pacific jet seems to not have much of a care for the temperate of the water down at the beltline. Until that influence, whatever it is, is neutralized, I don't think we're going to be in a better spot.

And again, I am saying that from the position of the *have* of this CWA. But I don't think 5ish inches on the aggregate in December is normal up around here. This area averages around 60-70 inches a season, I believe, so I would imagine things are BN here, which really speaks to the SE part of the CWA. I have had it better so far, but I can still see the level of shit it's been and it just seems like it's not going to get better, save for a small window, any time soon?

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[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I guess that their is speculation on the colder, stormier pattern not lasting beyond 10-12 days in January.

I still think much of the issue is using ensembles to try and forecast ground truth.   If you have a 10-model ensemble and 9 runs show the highs will be in the 50's and one run shows the highs will be near 0, the resulting ensemble mean is going to be grossly understated despite only 10% of the suites showing such a solution.   It is similar to the difference between an average salary and a median salary.  With average salary figures, the large wage earners skew the numbers to make the resulting figures look between than reality.   Using the ensembles to "check up on the op's" is a better use, IMO....or to look for potential.  

[Blizzard of 93]

Blizzard of 93 annual Disclaimer:

Whenever I post a model run map it is merely just showing the model output.

I do NOT draw the maps!

In no way, shape or form does it mean that I “wish” for it to happen. I am just posting what the map shows, with a little discussion.

Most of us are here for snow, so just for occasional fun, a long range Op run map will be posted to give the crowd what they want to see!

Again, just because a map is posted does not mean that I necessarily believe it or am trying to wish it into existence.

I love snow & I will always look for the possibility of tracking snow from the long range weather pattern to the short term advisories & Warnings.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I still think much of the issue is using ensembles to try and forecast ground truth.   If you have a 10-model ensemble and 9 runs show the highs will be in the 50's and one run shows the highs will be near 0, the resulting ensemble mean is going to be grossly understated despite only 10% of the suites showing such a solution.   It is similar to the difference between an average salary and a median salary.  With average salary figures, the large wage earners skew the numbers to make the resulting figures look between that reality. 

Good points on ensembles, however they are the much better long range tool than a single Op run, especially 1 or 2 weeks out.

To your point, ensembles often have different camps that might skew the reality of the outcome. The EPS has 50 ensemble members, so for example, you might have 25 cold & 25 warm, which could disguise the true eventual reality. However, once you get a good majority of members that agree, then you can see the likely direction of the pattern.

[Blizzard of 93]

It’s Christmas!

I’m done fighting, but I finally needed to stand up for myself….

Hopefully we get a solid Winter storm threat to emerge as the holiday period progresses.

[mahantango#1]

What the model runs show, and what actually transpires are usually 2 different things. And thats why were all congregated here. For our passion of the weather. Yes there will be letdowns for some and victories for the others. But we move on to the next model run starting the process all over again. We have great discussion here on this forum. Keep up the great work you all do providing us valuable stats and info, and weather knowledge. This is what makes this forum a great place to be.

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good points on ensembles, however they are the much better long range tool than a single Op run, especially 1 or 2 weeks out.

To your point, ensembles often have different camps that might skew the reality of the outcome. The EPS has 50 ensemble members, so for example, you might have 25 cold & 25 warm, which could disguise the true eventual reality. However, once you get a good majority of members that agree, then you can see the likely direction of the pattern.

Agreed, if a lot of the runs agree then you have a higher chance of reality but that requires looking at the individual members to see if a small subset is skewing the totals vs. just the means.  Let's take early January for example.  Pretty much all the means AND members are suggesting it is going to be colder than the week before so a pretty safe forecast you would think but when expanded to look for potential low-pressure systems, I personally think it is the same or worse than using a single Op to do the same.   Since the ensembles are purposely fed different data in an effort to find an average, I cannot buy using mean low-pressure locations or really the snow fall means as being any better than the higher resolution Op run.    Measuring the uncertainty of the Op run is different than trying to argue that the lower resolution ensembles are better at forecasting that the Op.  

It also does not help that we now know the GEFS is using a different "software base" than the Op GFS.  Different does not mean better or worse but is not ideal when trying to use them to find uncertainties in the Op. 

[Blizzard of 93]

@Atomixwx

Sorry that I lost my cool this morning.

I am generally entertained by your posts.

I hope that you & your family have great holidays.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

.  

It also does not help that we now know the GEFS is using a different "software base" than the Op GFS.  Different does not mean better or worse but is not ideal when trying to use them to find uncertainties in the Op. 

It also doesn't help us when were on the cusp of a major winter storm and all the surrounding NWS offices have winter storm watches/warnings out and NWS State College does not. And their discussion usually seems to downplay the event coming up. Talk about a mental letdown when you see that. I wonder how many times we will see that this winter season. But they always seem to be late to the party.