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Central PA Winter 23/24


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Just now, mitchnick said:

Should have said, it's the same system reflected at the end of the Gfs essentially.  And you know what they say...the big ones are sniffed out far in advance...sometimes.  :yikes:

That system on the GFS looked like it was going to be something big and then, it runs for the GL on the last panel...so that may be out next, great hope indeed! 

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10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No way slp would head for the GL with the ensemble mean 500mb and 250mb wind flow.

It actually seemed to transfer vs head....but that is as far as I am willing to dissect 384 :-).   Would have to see some more panels to see if it a model blip but regardless, we are well on our way to losing 850's on the final panel behind a SE Wind at 850 and Easterly at the surface.    I just cannot come to using ensemble means for anything except patterns so just discuss the one op I saw :-) 

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It actually seemed to transfer vs head....but that is as far as I am willing to dissect 384 :-).   Would have to see some more panels to see if it a model blip but regardless, we are well on our way to losing 850's on the final panel behind a SE Wind at 850 and Easterly at the surface.    I just cannot come to using ensemble means for anything except patterns so just discuss the one op I saw :-) 

In weenie world, the best of times have the ensembles supporting the operational runs. But we're too far out for that. Be that as it may, I  personally believe we have our first legit threat at a legit snowstorm to track fwiw.

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In weenie world, the best of times have the ensembles supporting the operational runs. But we're too far out for that. Be that as it may, I  personally believe we have our first legit threat at a legit snowstorm to track fwiw.

Yea, wayyy too far out.  I agree that early January is our first window and seeing the Op showing so much cold air in the US at that point is reassuring.    Unless this falls off, it is a big plus that we are only going to have a one week can kick this winter as to potential winter weather.  

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

   

That is pretty amazing.  The low highs this week must have really helped them out.   Do not see the same for Liberty at least on their web site. 

The trails don't look that great but far better than just a few days ago. I can't remember the last year that Roundtop didn't beat Liberty and/or Whitetail for opening day. 

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

To me looking at this pic, Liberty is not even close especially with rain and 50's coming. 

 

image.thumb.png.40df8fc59e0729a36460772f96783aec.png

 

Agreed - not super familiar with Liberty like I am with Roundtop (2 of my kids had passes when they were teens) but don't they suffer from having a lot of south-facing terrain?

Roundtop maximizes retention with a lot of terrain that sees little sun until later in the season. Sunny, dry days don't hurt them. It's rain and high dews that are crushing. (same for any resort) 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Agreed - not super familiar with Liberty like I am with Roundtop (2 of my kids had passes when they were teens) but don't they suffer from having a lot of south-facing terrain?

Roundtop maximizes retention with a lot of terrain that sees little sun until later in the season. Sunny, dry days don't hurt them up. It's rain and high dews that are crushing. (same for any resort) 

I know at Whitetail a lot of trails face South because I can see them from my house on a clear day.   I feel like the Liberty ones face more West or Northwest but trying to gauge though off driving up there. 

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I know at Whitetail a lot of trails face South because I can see them from my house on a clear day.   I feel like the Liberty ones face more West or Northwest but trying to gauge though off driving up there. 

They have some that face east as well that are on the “backside” of the Mtn. I can see those slopes from my house in Hanover and they are starting to whiten up nicely.

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They have some that face east as well that are on the “backside” of the Mtn. I can see those slopes from my house in Hanover and they are starting to whiten up nicely.
You can see Whitetail from Hanover? That's impressive. I've been to Whitetail. I didn't think it was large enough to be seen from that far away.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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