Central PA Winter 23/24

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, on the 6Z.  Eastern side of the country is evacuated of BN temps on the 27th.  Not a torch either, just mild.  Colder air works in after Jan 1 but only for a few days as it looks transient.  Just a PBP on an Op model, not a forecast. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep. Let's see what we get today. PBP is good and certainly if 6z is correct that is what happens. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Elliott on next week's rain potential (and beyond):

Not until next Tuesday or Wednesday should a storm system move into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic States and bring the next round of unsettled weather to the region. This system will likely bring rain to parts of the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and Midwest on Christmas Day but face resistance from the large high pressure system over New England. Regardless of the system's timing, temperatures will be way too high and the storm track too far north/west for any wintry precipitation in the entire mid-Atlantic region. Thus, another soaking rainfall is a "good bet" at some point during the middle of next week, but amounts should not be high enough for any more flooding concerns. As mentioned, it will also be another "mild rainstorm" with temperatures in the 40s or 50s. 'Tis the norm in December during strong El Niño winters. As for snow and ice, the tide may turn in early- to mid-January, but it'll be a "no-show" until then. Cue the old adage, "Patience is a virtue".. -- Elliott

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yep. Let's see what we get today. PBP is good and certainly if 6z is correct that is what happens. 

It is all good.  On the MA LR thread they are excited again about after Jan 1 based on pattern recognition of the ensembles.  GFS OP just not showing it yet.   We can have good 500H looks with surface temps that are too warm or the reverse where we snow on a bad look.   That map I posted the other day with the 540 Line near Valdosta GA and temps just near freezing here is a good example.  But, fairly confident next week is not going to be cold at all.   We got our Dec cold this week.   It is still only 25 here.

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott on next week's rain potential (and beyond):

Not until next Tuesday or Wednesday should a storm system move into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic States and bring the next round of unsettled weather to the region. This system will likely bring rain to parts of the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and Midwest on Christmas Day but face resistance from the large high pressure system over New England. Regardless of the system's timing, temperatures will be way too high and the storm track too far north/west for any wintry precipitation in the entire mid-Atlantic region. Thus, another soaking rainfall is a "good bet" at some point during the middle of next week, but amounts should not be high enough for any more flooding concerns. As mentioned, it will also be another "mild rainstorm" with temperatures in the 40s or 50s. 'Tis the norm in December during strong El Niño winters. As for snow and ice, the tide may turn in early- to mid-January, but it'll be a "no-show" until then. Cue the old adage, "Patience is a virtue".. -- Elliott

Elliot has been spot on. He has not wavered at all with his predictions. and @Bubbler86 correct on the MA forum. Lots want it to snow snow snow like myself but as Elliot says we need patience. I don't have much of that but trying hard. LOL. 

 

[Superstorm]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Elliot has been spot on. He has not wavered at all with his predictions. and @Bubbler86 correct on the MA forum. Lots want it to snow snow snow like myself but as Elliot says we need patience. I don't have much of that but trying hard. LOL. 

 

Everything I have read has been for winter to show up after the new year so there are many thinking the same thing.

[pawatch]

Been kind of discouraging. A lot of mornings low 20’s wake up to snow flurries. Then a storm rolls in and it’s 40-45 degrees for the low temperature. 

Thanks to everyone posting model runs and talking about our chance for snow.

BTW 21 degrees this morning.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, paweather said:

Elliot has been spot on. He has not wavered at all with his predictions. and @Bubbler86 correct on the MA forum. Lots want it to snow snow snow like myself but as Elliot says we need patience. I don't have much of that but trying hard. LOL. 

 

He really has, and I'm glad that you mentioned it and not me.  Hopefully his streak continues, as he's still thinking that it will turn white as winter progresses. 

[Bubbler86]

Rgem still banging the Teens/near 20 over this way tomorrow Am then upper teens/20 Eastern LSV Fri AM.    It relaxed the lows a tad bit and moved them up 2-3 degrees. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Assuming less than 3.5 inches falls between now and the end of the month, this is the third lowest 5-year snowfall on record at MDT - behind only the 5-year periods ending on 12/31/1934 & 12/31/1992.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Assuming less than 3.5 inches falls between now and the end of the month, this is the third lowest 5-year snowfall on record at MDT - behind only the 5-year periods ending on 12/31/1934 & 12/31/1992.

Cue the “and you know what happened right after 12/31/1992” comments.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Assuming less than 3.5 inches falls between now and the end of the month, this is the third lowest 5-year snowfall on record at MDT - behind only the 5-year periods ending on 12/31/1934 & 12/31/1992.

OMG how did I know Climate Changer would in the house telling us about anti snow. 

[TheClimateChanger]

For informational purposes, here are the top 20 5-year snowfalls at MDT:

[TimB]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

For informational purposes, here are the top 20 5-year snowfalls at MDT:

None of those years start with 2. Strange.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

None of those years start with 2. Strange.

So Strange.  Climate change is our death. 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Assuming less than 3.5 inches falls between now and the end of the month, this is the third lowest 5-year snowfall on record at MDT - behind only the 5-year periods ending on 12/31/1934 & 12/31/1992.

I am surprised it is not the lowest after 2 especially terrible seasons. 

[Bubbler86]

Late nooners.  Mostly Sunny and 35. 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Late nooners.  Mostly Sunny and 35. 

39 here.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Late nooners.  Mostly Sunny and 35. 

Nice chilly nooner 43 and Sunny here. 

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

39 here.

Elevation has to get some wins from time to time.    GFS shit the blinds though I bet Orlando seeing the 540 line would excite the crowd down there.    CMC does try to get cold in end of year from the Atlantic. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Assuming less than 3.5 inches falls between now and the end of the month, this is the third lowest 5-year snowfall on record at MDT - behind only the 5-year periods ending on 12/31/1934 & 12/31/1992.

 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am surprised it is not the lowest after 2 especially terrible seasons. 

Interesting data - and I agree...what saved this past 5 years from being #1 all time were the back to back big Marches that we had at the start of this 5 year period. One of the biggest snowstorms occurred on the first day of spring. Take that out of the mix and we'd be staring at a record run of futility. 

[Jns2183]

Been kind of discouraging. A lot of mornings low 20’s wake up to snow flurries. Then a storm rolls in and it’s 40-45 degrees for the low temperature. 
Thanks to everyone posting model runs and talking about our chance for snow.
BTW 21 degrees this morning.
 

Climate
1990-2020
Monthly QPF
Dec 3.51"
Jan. 3.06"
Feb. 2.60"
Mar. 3.62"

Monthly snow
Dec 4.6"
Jan. 8.9"
Feb. 8.8"
Mar. 5.6"

Monthly snow % of QPF assuming 10-1
Dec 13.1%
Jan. 29.1%
Feb. 33.8%
Mar. 15.5%

Monthly # of days with QPF >= 0.01"
Dec 10
Jan. 11
Feb. 10
Mar. 11

Monthly # of days with snow>= 0.01"
Dec 3
Jan. 5
Feb. 5
Mar. 3


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[Jns2183]

Assuming less than 3.5 inches falls between now and the end of the month, this is the third lowest 5-year snowfall on record at MDT - behind only the 5-year periods ending on 12/31/1934 & 12/31/1992.

Snowfall seasons are different. They go from July 1st to June 30th

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[Jns2183]

None of those years start with 2. Strange.

The 1980's, 1920's, 1890's, and 1880's are also not on there.

What's also funny is up to 1960 the most amount of snow on record was 55". Over the next 10 years we would have a year in the 60"+, 70"+, 80"+ range along with another in the 50" range. Also in the 90's we would have 2 70" years in 3 years. Since 1990 there have been more snow in 4 seasons then ever was seen before 1960, 2 of those years starting with a 2.

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[Voyager]

Setting up to be a soggy desert this weekend for me. Pretty impressive rain event as far as Phoenix is concerned.

Thursday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers after 11pm. Increasing clouds, with a low around 56. East northeast wind around 5 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday

Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. High near 63. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Friday Night

Showers. Low around 52. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

[Bubbler86]

Up to 38.  May not make 40 today. 

[Bubbler86]

Both the Nam and Rgem advertising some potential weekend mood snow for @pawatch and gang.  A very cold Sat for all of Eastern PA with temps maxing around 35. 

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Down to 28 already. 

[TimB]

7 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Snowfall seasons are different. They go from July 1st to June 30th

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xmACIS doesn’t give you that option when doing 5 year periods, but 1/1 to 12/31 is sufficient when measuring the “least snowy 5 year periods.” It’s a little less useful when doing 1 year increments.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

The 1980's, 1920's, 1890's, and 1880's are also not on there.

What's also funny is up to 1960 the most amount of snow on record was 55". Over the next 10 years we would have a year in the 60"+, 70"+, 80"+ range along with another in the 50" range. Also in the 90's we would have 2 70" years in 3 years. Since 1990 there have been more snow in 4 seasons then ever was seen before 1960, 2 of those years starting with a 2.

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Lots of ups & downs with seasonal snowfall over the decades in Harrisburg.

Recent seasonal snowfall history since 2010 shows that Harrisburg has had 7 seasons with above normal snow & 7 seasons with below normal snow.

[Bubbler86]

23 for a low but temps have risen to 28 at this time.   Rgem still correcting a bit for tomorrow AM with low 20's, instead of teens, for the Eastern LSV.