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Central PA Winter 23/24


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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT bagged a 70!  Good call by Canderson.   The models often being under by 5-10 degrees when the Southwesterlies are raging is a big issue. 

69 at MU and at the house. 

MU dropped to 24 on March 1st. It has not reached freezing since, and it'll be almost another week until it happens again. 

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18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

69 at MU and at the house. 

MU dropped to 24 on March 1st. It has not reached freezing since, and it'll be almost another week until it happens again. 

Along with several nights below freezing in our hood, ChatGPT/Euro AI has temps below zero invading the Upper Mid-West. 

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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Looks like 65 is going to be our top temp...impressive just the same after what we had as recent as 36 hours ago with snow covered yards. 

How much snow did you have on the ground? Only snow I saw was in the air here at work...my wife said there was the slightest hint of some coverage on our mulch at home. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

How much snow did you have on the ground? Only snow I saw was in the air here at work...my wife said there was the slightest hint of some coverage on our mulch at home. 

We had between 3/4" and 1".   Those bands migrated west and kept snowing here until after midnight.     Driveway was actually partially covered. 

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I have been working with the great folks at the Delaware Environmental Observing System (Thanks to Chris!!) to add even more weather observation points and stations across Chester County PA. With the updated data and summer coming I thought I would run an analysis of Summer (June-August) temperatures across the County from 1895 through last summer (now with 25 Chester County Stations at least partially in the data since 1895 and 15 current observation sites included). Overall in the non-adjusted data there is only as expected normal cyclical warm and cool cycles but I thought I would show you a comparison of the post observation adjustment applied by the the National Center of Environmental Information (NCEI) who have applied 111 consecutive years of post observation adjustments to chill the actual observations to each and every summer from 1895 through 2005 and have every year since 2005 now applied a warming adjustment. As you can see in the trend lines the orange non-adjusted and blue adjusted paint a far different rate of our rate of warming.

image.thumb.png.a1fce6d223d9b60662d1cf1a1e4bb8f6.png

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5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I have been working with the great folks at the Delaware Environmental Observing System (Thanks to Chris!!) to add even more weather observation points and stations across Chester County PA. With the updated data and summer coming I thought I would run an analysis of Summer (June-August) temperatures across the County from 1895 through last summer (now with 25 Chester County Stations at least partially in the data since 1895 and 15 current observation sites included). Overall in the non-adjusted data there is only as expected normal cyclical warm and cool cycles but I thought I would show you a comparison of the post observation adjustment applied by the the National Center of Environmental Information (NCEI) who have applied 111 consecutive years of post observation adjustments to chill the actual observations to each and every summer from 1895 through 2005 and have every year since 2005 now applied a warming adjustment. As you can see in the trend lines the orange non-adjusted and blue adjusted paint a far different rate of our rate of warming.

image.thumb.png.a1fce6d223d9b60662d1cf1a1e4bb8f6.png

This doesn’t belong in regional subforums. But good to see you admit that your flawed data and the NCEI data both show warming.

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1 minute ago, TimB said:

This doesn’t belong in regional subforums. But good to see you admit that your flawed data and the NCEI data both show warming.

Nothing flawed in my all encompassing data LOL!!  is all of the available actual non adjusted data and it shows no statistically significant warming at all....unless you apply the "post observation" NCEI adjustments!

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1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

Nothing flawed in my all encompassing data LOL!!  is all of the available actual non adjusted data and it shows no statistically significant warming at all....unless you apply the "post observation" NCEI adjustments!

72.7 to 73.3 is still warming.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 Mine is still covered.  Doubt I pull until April.  It did get to 69 in the house today so going to be a little warm the next 2-3 days. 

I walked into the office today and after about all of 3 seconds...I was on the phone with facilities maintenance to switch the HVAC to HVAC.

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3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

LOL!!!! non statistical p-value over that long a period!!!

You’ll stop at nothing to prove your stupid little agenda. Trust me, the last time someone will think about these records you’ve meticulously been keeping for decades will probably be about 3 years after you’re dead, maybe less. Is it even worth it?

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1 minute ago, TimB said:

You’ll stop at nothing to prove your stupid little agenda. Trust me, the last time someone will think about these records you’ve meticulously been keeping for decades will probably be about 3 years after you’re dead, maybe less. Is it even worth it?

You have to admit it is kind of strange that the NCEI had to adjust each and every  year from 1895 for 111 years and then warm the last 20 to make that trend line look scary. However. I suspect you are right that some day all we will have is the adjusted post observation tweaks as the record. Data from the original observers will be deleted and forgotten and folks will never know what we did to the actual real data to make it so scary!!

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